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Tanya's Blog - Friday 5th April 2013

The Saturdays are strutting their stuff as my fingers hit the keyboard typing this blog. A record crowd for the Thursday turned out yet to my eye the betting ring was sparse - perhaps they were all crowding round the stage ready for The Saturdays.

It was a bitterly cold day though so many must have been snuggled in the bars and stands.  Plus there were the results, which were brutal for punters as the bookmakers steadily grew ‘Cheshire Cat’ smiles. 

There were hefty wagers reported on Rolling Star in the first, then the bookmakers took it to the punters with Silviniaco Conti until they drained every last penny there was for the horse at Evens.  First Lieutenant came to their aid and I should think he’ll be running on the Friday at the Cheltenham Festival next year.

Did The New One show enough to be a Champion Hurdle contender next season by winning the Aintree Hurdle? And will Zarkandar be aimed at the Ladbrokes World Hurdle to meet the mighty Big Buck’s?  Thousand Stars proved a good barometer with his third place. 

Tartan Snow was a young man’s dream for jockey Jamie Hamilton when winning the Foxhunters'. I did find a couple of bookmakers who laid the 100-1 but only to £2.50 and £3.50 each-way respectively.  Then Oiseau De Nuit provided further boosting for the chances of Cue Card in today’s John Smith's Melling Chase as like the Ryanair Chase winner, Colin Tizzard is the trainer.

Which sets up the race of the meeting. Can Sprinter Sacre be beaten?  With money in their satchels bookmakers will look to oppose him and some are already going 4/11. We’ll see 2/5, I’m sure, but will we see bigger?  Depends if My Tent Or Yours gets beat and I think he just might as I like Forgotten Voice in the Rose Appeal Supports Alder Hey Top Novices' Hurdle.

As for my other picks, I just want to oppose Dynaste in the John Smith's Mildmay Novices' Chase and after Alan King landed a blow with L’Unique yesterday how about Uxiandre in the 4.15pm? 

Then there is the Topham which I make between Pacha Du Polder and Jamsie Hall.

It’s all building up well to the big race tomorrow. The Saturdays have just finished and I can now hear myself think.  The press room is still bursting with journos, time for coffee and then back to the books and stats.

Today's tips:

2.00 Aintree Forgotten Voice at 4-1 with Paddy Power

3.40 Aintree Pacha Du Polder at 16-1 with Ladbrokes and Jamsie Hall at 14-1 with William Hill

4.15 Aintree Uxiandre at 22-1 with MansionBet

Tanya's pointers:

Rose Appeal Supports Alder Hey Top Novices' Hurdle:

Eight of the last ten winners were aged five

AP McCoy’s last seven rides in the race have produced three wins and a third

Eight of the last ten winners finished in the first two last time out

John Smith's Mildmay Novices' Chase:

Five of the last eight winners had run in the RSA Chase

Over the last ten years the biggest starting price of the winner was 7-1

John Smith's Melling Chase:

All of the last ten winners of the Melling Chase had run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival in either the Ryanair Chase or Queen Mother Champion Chase but only three had won.

Five of the last ten favourites have won the Melling Chase

John Smith's Topham Chase:

Eight of the last nine winners had run over the Grand National fences before

Peter Bowen has trained the winner four of the last six years

Only one winning favourite in the last ten years and even Gwanako was joint

John Smith's Sefton Novices' Hurdle:

Seven of the last ten finished in the first two last time out