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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - Saturday 6th April 2013

The National is my nemesis, but I’ve got three against the field

Bookmakers may have had a dream day on Thursday but that soon turned into a nightmare on Friday as the four short-priced favourites, My Tent Or Yours, Dynaste, Sprinter Sacre and At Fisher's Cross all obliged.

It was a real privilege to be at Aintree to witness the Melling Chase as it was a real ‘I was there’ occasion. The whole race unravelled beautifully and was a joy to watch. 

The manner in which Sprinter Sacre pulverised both Cue Card and Flemenstar was phenomenal. Quick, watch it again here:

On to the Grand National.

By 4.30 Friday On His Own had drifted from 15-2 to 9-1 setting the betting up for 10-1 the field in the morning but with William Hill stating they would go 12-1 the field punters are in for a treat. 

Take a price on Saturday morning as the National runners are bound to shorten up closer to post time.

Amusingly when retiring to the press room having come off air on Friday there was already talk of who will win The Masters from some of the journos.  Brandt Snedeker was my first reply but let me deal with the National first.

The last time I backed the winner was Ben Nevis in 1981. I did back Encore En Peu each-way behind Rough Quest in 1996 and Seabass last year.  Yet the race still remains my nemesis. 

Colbert Station is my fancy this year and each-way I fancy both The Rainbow Hunter and Weird Al

Donald McCain, Jason Maguire and owner Tim Leslie can enjoy double delight in the first two races with Up And Go and Overturn.  The latter is bound to prefer Aintree to Cheltenham and the better ground.

Battle Group can win two races in three days, one over hurdles and one over the bigger obstacles and finally Cockney Sparrow was going to be one of my bets at the Cheltenham Festival but with little weight and a further 7lb off her back with good conditional Dean Pratt in the saddle she has to be the bet of the day.

 

Tanya's tips:

3.25 Aintree Battle Group at 5-1 bet365

5.10 Aintree Cockney Sparrow at 7-1 with Paddy Power

 

Tanya's Pointers:

1.45 Aintree – John Smith’s Mersey Novices’ Hurdle:

Six of the last ten winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival

Tweleve of the last 15 winners came from the first two in the betting 

2.15 Aintree – John Smith’s Maghull Novices’ Chase:

Six of the last ten favourites have won

Seventeen of the last 18 winners ran in the Arkle Trophy

Since 1997 all the winners have come from the first three in the betting

Paul Nicholls has had five winners and seven seconds since 1999

Eight of the last ten winners finished in the first three last time out

2.50 Aintree – John Smith’s Liverpool Hurdle:

All the previous winners of this race had won or finished second at the meeting before

All but one of the previous winners had finished in the first four in the World Hurdle

Ireland has yet to win the race

All of the winners had come from the first three in the betting

3.25 Aintree – John Smith’s Handicap Chase

Only one winning favourite in the last ten years 

Three of the last six winners had run in the Byrne Group Plate

Six of the last seven winners had failed to make the frame (first four) on their most recent start

Since the first running in 1977 Ireland have failed to win the prize

4.15 Aintree – John Smith’s Grand National

Always Waining has won the last three Topham Chases

Evan Williams has had a runner finish in the first four in the last four Nationals

Nicky Henderson has never won the Grand National

Ruby Walsh has ridden in the Grand National on ten occasions only ever failing to finish once plus he has won twice, second once, third once and fourth twice.

Eight of the last ten winners of the Grand National had run over hurdles at some time that season

Eighteen of the last 19 winners have been aged 9 or older

No Irish winner for six years

Ballabriggs is the only winner in the last 14 years to have won more than once that season

Five of the last ten winners had run in the race the previous season

Seven of the last twelve winners had run over the National fences

 

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