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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - Saturday 27th April 2013

You’ve no doubt been in shock at this week’s revelations and subsequent disqualification for eight years of Mahmood Al Zarooni. 

There is no more resilient punter than one that bets on horseracing, despite being dealt many a blow in the past.

No matter how hardy their tolerance, however, the racing authorities shouldn’t get complacent.  Everyone has a threshold and tolerance levels aren’t infinite. For now though, they appear to be standing up.

Racing has had a hard week, when we should have been enjoying Punchestown. Hopefully today there can be plenty of celebration at the end of the National Hunt season, with plenty of cherished memories to re-live in the future. 

Mine will be My Tent Or Yours in the Betfair Hurdle or Countrywide Flame in the Fighting Fifth or even Cockney Sparrow at Aintree.  Oh, I almost forgot that ride by Paul Carberry in the Coral Welsh National on Monbeg Dude.

Sprinter Sacre is parading at Sandown to delight the crowds along with many other favourites, including Neptune Collonges.  It’s hard to believe while bidding farewell to our National Hunt friends, next week we will be crowning our first classic winner of the season.  Life passes us by too quickly! 

A massive congratulations to the team that won the Moorcroft Masterminds, a quiz in aid of charity on Thursday night.  They came from nowhere to pip the Racing Post late-on to gain bragging rights for 12 months. 

I’m afraid I can claim no honours as part of the Jockey Club team which finished a respectable tenth of 26. I am confident enough there will be more right answers next year!

I typed part of this while enjoying an old friend (in terms of having a big payday courtesy of one of his wins) as Lucas Glover was leading the Zurich Classic. I’ll let you into a little secret, for me it has always been a great tournament to source the US Open winner. 

Don’t forget I fancy Matt Kuchar to win the Players’ Championship at Sawgrass which comes up very shortly.

Here we go, or should I say Away We Go

On Thursday evening and before the declarations came out early Friday, there was a ‘pony,’ yes a bit of 25-1 to be had on Willie Mullins’s Irish Grand National runner-up.  Come Friday afternoon around 3.15pm with just 20 runners remaining his price had capitulated to 8-1, and as short as 13-2 with Coral.

On Saturday morning I see there was some brief 9-1 and 10-1 available, yet as I look on Betfair, in between looking at the in-running market for the Zurich Classic, he is only 8.8 or 7.8-1. 

Hold On Julio is solid enough, yet his recent form puts me off.  And the other popular runner is Muirhead.  Once a very talented hurdler he hasn’t as yet made the same impact over fences. Unlike Away We Go he never got into contention at Fairyhouse but he did catch the eye.

Ireland had the 1-2-3 in the Bet365 Classic Trial and they could have the 1-2 in the Bet365 Gold Cup. I sense they could win, but providing any significant rain doesn’t fall Dover’s Hill could lead for the majority, if not all, of the way.

I see in the paper the best prices this morning in the Gordon Richards Stakes were 96%; punters have never had it so good.

Yesterday at Sandown for two of the four races I stood in the betting ring, the best prices I saw totalled 98% and there could have been even greater value.  Bookmakers can’t continue in this way!

 

Today’s tips:

1.30 Sandown: Calculated Risk

2.55 Ripon: Manyriverstocross

3.50 Sandown: Away We Go/Dover’s Hill (each-way)

 

Tanya’s Pointers:

Bet 365 Gold Cup:

The last clear favourite to win the Bet365 Gold Cup was Mr Frisk in 1990, Beau was co-favourite when he won in 2000

The last ten winners of the Bet365 Gold Cup had been off the course no longer than 46 days.

Eight of the last ten winners of the Bet365 Gold Cup had failed to win on their previous three runs.

Seven of the last ten winners carried less than 11 stone

Well Refreshed has run six times over fences winning the four he completed

Bet365.com Celebration Chase:

Only one favourite has won the Celebration Chase in the last ten years

Paul Nicholls has won four of the last ten Celebration Chases

Nine of the last ten winners of the Celebration Chase were younger than nine

Bet365 Gordon Richards Stakes:

Only one of the last 14 winners of the Gordon Richards Stakes were priced in double figures

 

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