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Tanya's Blog - Saturday 4th May 2013

Saturday is the day of reckoning for connections of Qipco 2,000 Guineas protagonists. 

I can’t wait to witness what comes to fruition on the Rowley Mile course as it always sets up the season; the buzz of where the jockey is to go next as the race unfolds and the potential for re-matches later in the season. 

Garswood could be sprinting or trying to land the big mile prizes, Mars and Toronado could be bound for Epsom, while Dawn Approach could be anything and if last year is anything to go by, it’s likely to be something special!

Although I think Dawn Approach will win, for the sake of value and sentiment, I’m on Garswood each-way. 

He captured my imagination and my heart with his win on the Rowley Mile a few weeks back, and I’d love to see him place at worse. 

It’s not going to be easy and it’s far from a formality but he was 25-1 as soon as he crossed the line and I tweeted it was value then. At 12-1 now I’d be a bit more hesitant. 

I hope the Rowley Mile are rewarded with a deserved big crowd as the day’s card is appealing, shame about the Jockey Club Stakes and only four runners, yet seeing Wigmore Hall is a bonus for me. 

I’m keen to discover how the on-course betting turnover holds up at the course as over the last few seasons it has been in freefall.

I was discussing which bookmakers will be in attendance at the Betview Awards on Thursday night and there is a sense from those going that they feel or are hoping for a decent upturn.  It would add to the atmosphere and give the day a real buzz. 

A hot topic at present has been the dwindling on-course bookmaker numbers. If you strictly count the multi-represented ones then the matter is exasperating. 

Once again all-weather courses are put forward when bookmaker attendances are low but a watchful eye needs to be kept on the turf as there have been some empty betting rings at some marquee racecourses over recent months. 

It is a huge concern and add that to the dreadful each-way terms and it is all soon going to come to a head!

Moving swiftly on to more positive matters congratulations goes out to Colin Webster for being awarded Bookmaker of the Year at the Betview Awards. 

The Black Caps arrived on Tuesday, that’s the New Zealand cricket team, marking the fact that summer and my hols are just round the corner.

The first Test is at Lord’s during York’s Dante week, yet there is the ICC Champions’ Trophy and the Ashes to look forward to so the countdown is on. 

For now though all thoughts to the day’s events at Newmarket and I’ll post thoughts for Sunday’s 1,000 Guineas tonight.

Today’s tips:

2.55 Goodwood: The Confessor

3.50 Newmarket Garswood (each-way)

Tanya's pointers:

Qipco 2,000 Guineas:

Since Zafonic won in 1993 at odds of 5-6 only three further favourites have won

Eight of the last 10 winners won last time out (or 16 of the last 20)

Eight of the last 10 winners had won at least twice in their career

Nine of the last 10 winners had finished no worse than third in their career to date

Aidan O’Brien has won the race six times since 1998. All were having their seasonal debut

Ireland has won six of the last ten races

Thirteen of the last 14 winners had won their very first racecourse start

Makfi Suffolk Stakes:

All winners have carried 8st-10lbs or more (57 horses carried less)

All winners have been 12-1 or shorter

William Haggas has had seven winners from his last 13 runners

The last seven favourites have all been beaten

Pearl Bloodstock Palace House Stakes:

Seven of the last ten winners were from the first three in the betting

Nine of the last ten winners were aged five or younger

The last five winners had won on their previous start

Eight of the last ten derived from a single figure draw

Qatar Bloodstock Jockey Club Stakes:

Since 2000 no horse older than five has won the Jockey Club Stakes and 21 have tried.

Eight of the last ten winners came from the first two in the betting