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Tanya's Blog - Sunday 5th May 2013

Don’t forget Terimon when looking at the 1,000 Guineas!

It was phenomenal, breath-taking and a privilege to stand in the Newmarket betting ring to watch Dawn Approach win the 2,000 Guineas.

I had a sense I was about to witness something special and Jim Bolger’s colt didn’t disappoint.  He was visually impressive and quotes from 6-4 with MansionBet  right up to 5-2 with Boylesports,  Ladbrokes , and Paddy Power for the Investec Derby were soon thrust into my hand. 

Glory Awaits needs some much needed praise for running in splendid isolation for the whole contest and still beating the remainder of the runners by over two lengths. It’s a case of big mile prizes here we come for Kevin Ryan.

It all happened too quickly early doors for Van Der Neer, so I suspect he will be joining Dawn Approach at Epsom. If not then ten furlongs is a must. 

What a shame the weather deteriorated just after the Jockey Club Stakes. As I reported on Channel 4 the heavy rain shower left the betting ring desolate ahead of the Guineas.

In hindsight it may have saved the starting price for Dawn Approach from being much shorter.  I suspect had the sun shone brightly all day Dawn Approach may have returned Evens and Toronado 3-1 or even 7-2!!

I will watch the 2,000 Guineas a few times so I can get a real feel of what went on; how and if Garswood was hampered at the start before finishing second and how good exactly Glory Awaits ran.  I can’t wait to see Intello again, he beat Glory Awaits by ten lengths.

Universal shows the typical fortitude of a Mark Johnston front runner when wining the Jockey Club Stakes.

At the same time Noble Mission has visited last chance saloon.  I called him a bookmakers’ horse on air. To explain further, there are some horses, not many, that because of their quirks, they give layers the belief that there is more than one way of getting it beat. Noble Mission seems to get himself beaten. 

I loved Sole Power’s win in the Palace House. His owner is rails bookmaker David Power, and he almost chewed the end of his pipe while watching the race!  It was an electric, fast-run Palace House and with similar conditions it is obvious the Irish raider will be a formidable foe in sprints.

Who will be the Qipco 1000 Guineas winner?  Hot Snap is strong favourite off the back of a win in the Nell Gwyn, which ever since has become a much debated contest regarding the strength of the form. 

Just The Judge was weak in the market, but as I type on Saturday night she is contracting again.

What A Name is a filly to avoid on the Tote as French punters can bet into our pool but as she contracts don’t forget there could be value on all the other runners in that particular market. 

On her form I think she will win. Her second to Olympic Glory at Longchamp last October was impressive as she took on the colts and she’s already won this season. 

I’ve been hinting about her in this very blog since last August/September - the hope now is she does herself justice.

Just on a total whim, I have backed Masarah for Clive Brittain to win and place on the exchanges. 

I keep reminding myself to remember Terimon, who was the bridesmaid in Nashwan’s Derby in 1989 at 500-1. I was stood in the grandstand at Ascot on Wednesday when she lead all the way and similar tactics are sure to be adopted, which could see her cling on to at least third. 

My other massive outsider earlier on the card is Johannes in the 3.10 handicap. He did not ran as badly as his 16^th place suggests at Doncaster last time.  I’ll be intrigued to see some of the on-course each-way terms, no 1/6 or worse please, but a lot more on that subject next week.

Today's tips:

3.10 Newmarket: Johannes

3.50 Newmarket: What A Name

Today's pointers:

Qipco 1,000 Guineas:

Five of the last ten were making their seasonal debut, five had already had run that season so inconclusive.

Eight of the last ten won on their most recent start

Eight of the last ten ran in four or more races as a two-year-old

Eight of the last ten had finished no worse than third

Nine of the last ten had won at least twice

Seven of the last ten winners came from stall ten or higher

Sixteen of the last 22 winners had won on their very first start as a two-year-old

Ninteen of the last 22 winners raced in Group class last time out

Trainers from Lambourn/Wiltshire have provided only 3 winners from their last 109 runners

Other races:

Only one of the last ten favourites have won the 2.05pm at Newmarket

William Haggas has had seven winners from his last 17 runners

Sir Michael Stoute has won the Dahlia Stakes four times from his last six runners

Seven of the last ten winners of the 3.10pm at Newmarket were drawn ten or higher