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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - Saturday 1st June 2013

Take the hint from Friday and back course form!

Back in the never ending press room with rows and rows of desks, and my head is banging becuase the public address system at Epsom is so loud I believe my Dad could hear it in Maison-Laffitte!  He certainly watched the Investec Oaks, commenting via text on the brilliant ride by Richard Hughes.

While on the subject of France, remember they can bet into our Tote tomorrow so think long and hard before plunging on Ocovango on the nanny. The positive, however, is that all the other runners could be bigger for the support on Andre Fabre’s runner. 

Slowly but surely that thudding in my head is subsiding. I took to the camber well in the Epsom betting ring.  What alarmed me was the lack of turnover, plenty of people, very few parting with their hard-earned in significant amounts. 

Roger Charlton’s stable is warming to the task. Al Kazeem in Ireland and now Thistle Bird, who’s next I wonder?  Then, hallelujah! My losing run ended courtesy of Resurge - what a horse to own - adapting to the twists and turns of Surrey’s most unique of venues.  The non-runners blighted it as a betting event, with the negativity surrounding Pilgrims Rest worth noting for next time.

I loved the way Penitent ran behind Gregorian – it’s only a matter of time before his next visit to the winners’ enclosure.

I then had Vainglory at a double-figure price! What can you say about this dependable chap? Stable pet, sorry, should I say star, who loves the quirks of Epsom?  He carried Martin Lane home and gave the blog two winners, yes two winners on the day! 

Congratulations to Talent. I got the Oaks horrendously wrong, yet if you look at Talent’s pedigree, the emphasis is on stamina. Secret Gesture ran incredibly, considering how I thought she looked going down to the start.  I wonder if either will end up at Doncaster in September?  I hope Talent does have a crack at the St Leger.

Congratulations too to Ralph Beckett for his Oaks 1-2, phenomenal effort.

On to Derby Day. I am glad I had an outing before tackling the big day. Although I’ve been to many Derbies it’s been too long since my last one. The pressure is on now to keep the winners coming. Be mindful of all the concessions on offer for the Derby, please read the small print!

Rolling my sleeves up and getting stuck into the first and I make it between High Troja, who defied his 25-1 odds at Newbury last time and Greeleys Love.  The latter has his supporters who can’t be all wrong.  It is time to gain some compensation.  Mark Johnston normally has a winner at the meeting and it would be a pity to miss out.

With Hughesie on a high after his Oaks win, there’ll be no surprise if he adds the Woodcote with Thunder Strike. 

Good luck to St Nicholas Abbey - he should make it three Coronation Cups on the bounce. 

We saw how key it was for horses to act round Epsom on Friday, which is why I’m going for Ajjaaad in the Dash. He’s a recent course winner.

As for the Derby itself, I hope Dawn Approach wins but I can’t back him at the price.  Instead I’m heading to the betting without market and backing Libertarian and Mars.

 

Tanya's tips:

3.15 Epsom Ajjaadd at 15-1 with William Hill

4.50 Epsom First Avenue at 16-1 with bet365

5.25 Epsom Seeking Magic at 9-1 with bet365

 

Tanya’s Derby Day Pointers:

Since 1993 there have been 12 unbeaten horses who have been priced up favourite for the Derby only three have won, Camelot, Motivator & Galileo

Since 1993 there have been 24 unbeaten horses to run in the Derby six have won, four have finished second and two have finished third

Aidan O’Brien has had 22 horses run in the Derby at 10-1 or under, three have won, three finished second and one third.

None of Aidan O’Brien’s six Chester Derby Trial winners have gone on to glory at Epsom, which does not bode well for Ruler Of The World.

Aidan O’Brien has never won the Derby on the seven occasions when he fielded four or more runners.

Before running at Epsom 15 of Aidan O’Brien’s runners had won at least one Group One. Only two went on to Derby Glory, Camelot and High Chaparral

The three key criteria since 2000 for Aidan O’Brien’s successful runners in the Derby are:

Not beaten more than once as a juvenile.  Never finishing worse than 2nd. Had won at least three times previously Camelot (won 2012), Fame And Glory (2nd 2009), Hawk Wing (2nd 2002), High Chaparral (won 2002) and Galileo (won 2001)

The only three Aidan O’Brien colts who ran at Epsom unbeaten in three or more races were Camelot (won 2012), Fame And Glory (2nd 2009) and Galileo (won 2001)

Eight of the nine horses that finished second or third in the Derby for Aidan O’Brien had finished no worse than third prior to Epsom

All of the nine horses to have finished second or third for Aidan O’Brien in the Derby had at least four runs prior to Epsom

Since 2000 eight Derby winners had won at least one Group One prior to Epsom, which bodes well for Dawn Approach

Since 2000 ten Derby winners had won at least one Group One or a Group Two prior to Epsom, which is good for Dawn Approach, Ocovango, Libertarian and Battle Of Marengo.

Since 2000 every Derby winner with exception of Workforce had won at least a Group 3 race

Six of the last nine Derby winners had only been ridden by one jockey including in the Derby itself

Since 1999 every winner of the Derby has been priced 7-1 or shorter

Nine of the last ten winners of the Derby came from the first three in the betting

Seventeen of the last 20 Derby winners won on their last start

Thirteen of the last 15 Derby winners won two of their last three starts

The last 20 Derby winners were no worse than second on their previous start

Fourteen of the last 15 Derby winners were no worse than second on their last two starts

Eight of the last 26 Derby winners were drawn in stall ten

Coronation Cup:

Aidan O’Brien has won the Coronation Cup six times in the last eight years

St Nicholas Abbey has run in 14 Group Ones winning five. He was second once and third five times

St Nicholas Abbey has finished in the first three in 17 of his 20 races

Dunaden has run in eight Group Ones, winning three

Joshua Tree has run in eight Group Ones winning two and finishing second once and third once

Eight of the last ten winners of the Coronation Cup had finished no worse than second on their last start

Investec Dash:

Eight of the last ten winners of the Investec Dash have been five or older

Twelve of the last 14 ‘Dash’ winners have been drawn in stall 8 or higher

The favourite has finished no better than fourth in eight of the last ten years

Woodcote Stakes:

Seven of the last ten winners of the Woodcote came from the first three in the betting

Nine of the last ten winners of the Woodcote had finished no worse than fourth in their career prior to Epsom

 

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