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Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog |
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Tanya's Blog - Tuesday 18th June 2013
Chill out and support the Kite!
The offers on Animal Kingdom are pouring in, as bookmakers bid to try and entice you in on the very first race on the very first day. If interested please read the small print. Personally I think he’ll win and I’m on a mission to find the best value on Chil The Kite without him or each way. He caught my eye in the Lockinge Stakes, my belief he’ll come on for that, and be stronger for this.
As I type I’ve just arrived home from collecting the accreditation from the course. You can’t appreciate the scale or enormity of the event until you are actually there. To see the final licks of paint going on the pedestrian bridges, cleaners giving a final buff to the windows, groundsmen mowing the paddock let, alone the course. Plus the high street was congested due to contractors’ vans and lorries and there was a buzz, an apprehension, the anticipation was building. Nervous smiles on all those grafting hard at the course.
In essence though, even with a day to go, Ascot looks immaculate and most importantly ready! However whether I am is debatable. I’ve put the work in, the research, the study and even stood in the betting ring today in splendid isolation taking it all in.
Apparently there are more bookmaker betting areas than ever, yet on-course bookmaker numbers will be down, many choosing to disappear to Goodwood, Brighton, Lingfield and Newmarket in the knowledge those courses will otherwise be depleted. There was even speculation that the rails may not be full to capacity on each day!
There are so many goodies on the first day of Royal Ascot it probably isn’t a day to weigh in heavily, or maybe it is if you like a short one. Many will be pitching in to multiple bets involving Animal Kingdom, Shea Shea and Dawn Approach, while bookmakers roll up their sleeves and await the onslaught.
At the time of hitting my fingers to the keyboard late on Monday evening, Big Easy was being backed in the Ascot Stakes. He’ll stay as he is a very able and a competent hurdler.
The value was taken last week by yours truly in the St James’s Palace Stakes on Dundonnell at 33-1 so there’s no need to pitch in again.
The King’s Stand Stakes presents its own puzzle. Whether to share allegiance with the South African speedster Shea Shea, or oppose him? For me he’s hard to oppose him so I’ve gone in the search of value. Jack Dexter didn’t get the clearest of runs or the best of draws in the Duke Of York Stakes and for me can’t be 50-1. Also Prohibit ran a good race on return in France and he’s already got the T-shirt for this.
Time to grab the privileged opportunity to cover the Royal Ascot betting ring with both hands; here’s hoping I do it justice. You know I’ll be giving it my all.
Tuesday's tips:
2.30 Royal Ascot: Chil The Kite each-way at 33-1 with Paddy Power
3.05 Royal Ascot: Jack Dexter each-way at 50-1 with Paddy Power
5.35 Royal Ascot: Steventon Star at 16-1 with Paddy Power
Tanya's Pointers:
Eleven of the 30 races at Royal Ascot last year were won by overseas raiders.
The last nine winners had won at least one Group One
Eight of the last ten winners had run no more than twice in the current campaign
The last time a horse aged over than five won was 1976
Eight of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting
Seven of the last ten winners were trained overseas
Shea Shea has been beaten only twice in eight races
Eight of the last ten winners had run in three or more Group 1s.
The last eight winners of the race had finished either first or second on their most recent start.
Eight of the last ten winners came from the first five in the betting.
All of the last ten winners came from the first four in the betting, six of them favourites
Eleven of the last 20 favourites have won
Seven of the last ten winners came from the first two in the betting
Five of the last seven winners had won either the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket or the Irish equivalent
Aidan O’Brien has won the race six times
The last seven winners of the Coventry were all unbeaten
The last nine winners came from the first three in the betting
Since 2002 all winners had won on their most recent start
Since 2002 all winners had had no more than three runs prior
Only one winning favourite in the last 20 years (since 1993)
Eight of the last ten winners aged four or five
Seven of the last ten winners had run over hurdles
The last six winners had won over at least two miles
Since 2000 four winners of this race had made their racecourse debut at Windsor and been beaten!
Nine of the winners since 2000 had won on their most recent start
Four of the last ten years the race has been run at Ascot the winner has come from stall seven
Since 2000 ten times the winner has come from the first seven in the betting
Only once since 2000 has the winner had more than three starts prior to Royal Ascot
Only four winning favourites in the last 20 years
