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Tanya's Blog - Saturday 20th July 2013
Krypton can be a Factor at Newbury
With all the golf and cricket on this weekend I almost forgot the racing. Betting on the golf and cricket has evolved so much over recent years it seems to overshadow anything else at this time of year.
Newbury’s Weatherbys Super Sprint has always tried to take up that gauntlet and competition for the betting pound is added to by a welcome appearance of summer jumping from Market Rasen.
It allows us to touch base with AP McCoy, Richard Johnson, Jason Maguire and co and to acknowlede the trainers who thrive at this time of the year, particularly Peter Bowen and Jonjo O’Neill.
Wonders and miracles have been worked and long hours have been spent keeping the racing going in these unusually warm temperatures, so I’ll take the opportunity to praise the unsung heroes.
Fate wasn’t kind to Krypton Factor last Saturday; a mechanical failure to his stall before the July Cup meant Newmarket’s loss is Newbury’s gain and I note the 5-2 about him is long gone and he has shortened to 9-4.
He has run in five Group Ones so here’s hoping he can take the Group 3 GT Exhibitions Hackwood Stakes on his way back to the top echelon of sprinting where he belongs. He was third in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot!
Back to the jumps and I note only one runner for Peter Bowen in the Summer Plate. I think Dr Newland can win it with Paddy The Hare, yet I’m intrigued by Royale’s Charter's inclusion in the line-up. One to keep an eye on.
As for the Betfred Mobile Lotto Summer Handicap Hurdle, it is not one for favourites. The last winning jolly was in 2005. I fell for Street Entertainer in the Swinton Hurdle, having waited for him to run since November. He was going well enough without being ever placed to challenge when he made a calamitous error two out. So a deep breath and here it goes; let’s hope he is bang in contention come the last at 2.55pm.
Muirfield’s difficulty and mental brutality has us craving more, the Ashes threaten to turn into pathetic cinders with the Australians sadly showing no guts with the bat, which means attentions turn to the fairways and glass-like greens of a pure Scottish Links course.
Lee Westwood, who has been firmly embraced into the racing fraternity courtesy of Hoof It's exploits, now has our full support as he is tied for second with Tiger Woods behind the Open leader Miguel Angel Jimenez. Sadly my pair of Jason Day and Jason Dufner have far from covered themselves with glory, particularly the latter who let the course defeat him in the latter stages of Friday. In his defence he wasn’t the only one.
Plaudits also goes to Charles Schwartzel. The former Masters champion showed why he gained a green jacket with his 68 on Friday. Within the scoring and conditions for the day both he and Westwood shot the equivalent of course record.
I found it amusing they had to water the course at Muirfield. Will that suit the early starters again tomorrow? Are their deficits too much to reduce. Saturday, or should I say the third round, is always known as moving day.
The pins will be set up in alluring positions, par 5s will be crying out to be birdied, but I doubt the moisture-sapping temperatures will drop. In-running betting could well be carnage, so be careful or just look on. Remember that quite a bit of the action you are watching is off tape and not live.
Meanwhile are Simon Katich, David Hussey, Cameron White or even David Warner, readying themselves to head to Old Trafford or Durham? Australia need some batting help. I note Adam Gilchrist was looking on from the Lord's pavilion on Thursday. Damian Martyn has been on the radio and Ricky Ponting hasn’t long played his last championship game. Names from the great Australian side, even coach Darren Lehman was a welcome addition to that now and then. I can’t see Lehman standing for the brittle batting line-up for too much longer.
The current malaise just shows you how great Michael Hussey, Shane Warne, Glenn McGrath, Matthew Hayden, Justin Langer and the aforementioned all were. You don’t appreciate them until they are gone, although I’m sure there are some in the stands that do appreciate they have gone!
Saturday's tips:
2.55 Market Rasen: Street Entertainer at 12-1 with Ladbrokes
3.15 Newbury: Krypton Factor at 9-4 with bet365, MansionBet , William Hill, Paddy Power and SkyBet
Tanya's Pointers:
Nineteen of the 21 winners carried 8st-11lbs or lower
Eight of the last ten winners came from stall 13 or lower (three of them from stall one)
Richard Hannon has won the Weatherbys Super Sprint seven times using seven different jockeys! Michael Roberts, Walter Swinburn, David Harrison, Eddie Ahern, Dane O’Neill, Martin Dwyer and Richard Hughes.
Seven of the last ten winners of the Weatherbys Super Sprint had run over only five furlongs
Eight of the last ten winners of the had had no more than three career starts
Five of the last ten winners had taken in a race at Royal Ascot
Only one maiden has won in the last ten years (2005 Lady Livius)
In 21 years fillies have won 13 times and also fielded the first two home ten times.
Fillies have won five of the last ten runnings
Seven of the last ten winners have come from the first five in the betting
Eight of the last ten winners had run at Royal Ascot that season
The last seven winners of the Hackwood Stakes had run in either the Diamond Jubilee or the Wokingham Stakes
Nine of the last ten winners of the Hackwood Stakes had run over at least six furlongs last time out
Jonjo O’Neill record in July is 11 winners from 31 runners
Peter Bowen has had eight winners from his last 15 runners – 53%
Peter Bowen has had four wins, two seconds and two thirds in Market Rasen’s Summer Plate
AP McCoy has ridden 8 winners from his last 13 rides
AP McCoy has won seven of the last eight hurdle races he has ridden in
AP McCoy and Jim Best have teamed up for 10 winners from their last 16 runners
AP McCoy has a 40% strike rate at Market Rasen this season
The last nine winners of the Irish Oaks came from the first two in the betting
Seven of the last ten winners of the Irish Oaks won last time out
Seven of the last nine winners of the Irish Oaks ran in the Investec Oaks (four had won)
