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Angus McNae - Saturday 17th August 2013

A Cup of Gas and Pace Analysis

Last week I had a look at the Ragozin sheets and applied them to the chance that Dawn Approach had in the Jacques Le Marois. They identified a probable bounce and I believe he did recoil from his big effort at Goodwood.

Peaks and troughs in horse’s performances need to be understood if we are to be successful punters and if we are going to elevate analysis in this sport beyond the use of floored collateral thought. 

Post-race analysis involves plenty of guess work because we do not know how fast races have been run. We can analyse what the athletes in the World Championships in Moscow going on at the moment have done because we know exactly how fast they have run at every point in their races. Clearly to understand a race we need to firstly understand how the race was run and this means we need to understand pace. Pace analysis, though difficult, is vital to our understanding of this sport going forward because it accurately describes how horses have distributed their energy. This was made all too clear to me when I read Pace Makes The Race by Dick Schmidt.

Mr Schmidt was one of the first men to analyse pace in terms of energy distribution and he explained a horse’s use of energy in terms of the horse being an engine with each engine containing a tank of fuel. Schmidt dubbed this his cup-of-gas analogy. Fuel is burnt as horses race, when they accelerate they use more fuel than when they cruise at an optimum pace. Each horse has enough fuel to complete the race, but if those horses are asked to do too much too soon in the race they are in danger of running out of fuel. There is enough gas in the tank for a horse to accelerate, but usually only once and once the gas is gone that is effectively race over bar a quick deceleration as they free wheel to a stop. With this in mind, how they are ridden is vital, how those fuel reserves are used will impact how they perform every time they step onto a racecourse.

This analogy explains why horses who get an easy lead are at an advantage - they are able to enjoy a track advantage whilst keeping plenty of fuel in the tank. A contested lead brings about a horse’s competitive instincts and this causes them to put in small bursts of acceleration, which burns vital gas. This is why early speed has been described as the universal bias. It is the most potent weapon in the sport when used in a manner that does not burn that precious fuel. This is why front runners on a fast surface are far more likely to prevail than those who front run on a tiring track. Quite simply acceleration needed to establish a lead uses fuel, but more is needed when the going is soft than when it is fast.

Distribution of energy and our understanding of it is thus vital to understanding how races were run. Schmidt also felt we should be aware that some horses simply have bigger tanks and thus had more fuel than their rivals, this is how he explained class. Frankel clearly had a bigger tank than his peers and could thus debunksome of the commonly-held theories about energy distribution. However for the vast majority of races Schmidt and his cup-of-gas analogy is far more relevant to understanding a horse race than any collateral form analysis.

There is some fantastic International action this weekend from Arlington and the domestic picture on is a classy one as well. My selection comes in the Washington Singer at Newmarket. The horse is Somewhat, who was second in the Superlative at Newmarket in a fast time. He tried to make all the running that day and was only headed close home. It is my assertion the firm going that day was too quick for him given his high knee action and the easier a surface at Newbury today looks certain to suit him. I expect his jockey, Gerald Mosse, to attempt to make all the running and this horse will be hard to catch. Let’s just hope he does not run out of fuel too soon! Come on Gerald use that universal track bias to your advantage!

Angus's Saturday tip:

2.05 Newbury: Somewhat at 11-10 with Paddy Power