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Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog |
| Saturday 1st March 2014 | |
Make a grey day at Kelso brighter with Smadynium
All the horses I had hoped would run have not declared so I make Saturday’s selections tentatively. Smadynium ran a strange but likeable race on chasing debut at Catterick last month.
Being a grey accentuates any mistakes, but despite all the expected errors there was plenty of promise. He has a solid hurdle rating to work from and could come on from the that run enough for a quick visit to the winners’ enclosure.
Richard Lee’s last four runners have finished second, so the stable is going well but it’s time to convert the good runs into winning ones. Fingers tightly crossed then for Tresor De Bontee at Newbury - he is sure to benefit from the 30 days rest having been running on extremely testing conditions and Richard Johnson has a 26% strike rate for the trainer over the last five seasons.
Not much to report this week but on Thursday I went home, no not Lords or the Oval or Aintree, it was a rare trip to Essex. Normally the longest time I spend in the county is when driving through it on the M25 on the journey when Newmarket, Doncaster or York-bound. Instead I boarded a train from Fenchurch Street and soaked up the nostalgia. From the carriages I could see the garden and the back of a house I lived in for my first six years and ten houses down from that was the school.
The tide was in, perilously close to the banks of the tracks through Leigh-on-Sea and Chalkwell, I never remembered that on past journeys! Lucky it was a calm, sunny day! Most of the hours were spent in the quaint seaside town of Thorpe Bay with the beams of the sun and bright blue sky masking a chill, salty but fresh air. Though I couldn’t resist popping into the betting shop in the high street which at midday I was the only one in there!
There is not long to go now until Cheltenham, as we keep being reminded. I prefer not to wish my life away, as there are plenty of races to watch without being wrapped up in Festival fever.
May I remind everyone there is only four weeks until the Lincoln Handicap! So best start dusting off the Flat form books and checking the state of play in the ante-post Classic markets! I know there is a tendency to dismiss them but there is life after Cheltenham!
It is Oscars weekend yet on Sunday for me all eyes will be on Palm Beach Gardens, Florida at PGA National with the hope Padraig Harrington has made the cut, Phil Mickelson’s back problem does not recur and Adam Scott’s play helps him get closer to becoming World number one.
Finally back to Cheltenham and to the many forthcoming Festival previews - I hope you manage to attend at least one, otherwise I’m sure all the presenting team on will assist in guiding you through the 27 races and key points in the lead-up.
Tanya Stevenson Saturday tips:
2.30 Kelso: Smadynium
4.25 Newbury: Tresor De Bontee at 4-1 with BetVictor
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday big-race pointers:
Twelve of the last 15 winners of the Grimthorpe Chase came from the first three in the betting
Thirteen of the last 15 winners of the Grimthorpe Chase carried 10st-11lbs or less to victory
Nine of the last ten winners of the Grimthorpe Chase had finished no worse than fourth on their previous run. (Five had won on their previous run)
Monbeg Dude has won all four of his races on left-handed courses and runs in the Grimthorpe.
Fourteen of the last 15 winners were no bigger than 15-2
Nine of the last ten Greatwood Gold Cup winners were aged eight or younger
Only one of the ten winners of the Greatwood Gold Cup had won on their previous start
Paul Nicholls has won the Greatwood Gold Cup six times in the last eight years
The five winners of the 2.40 Newbury have been priced no bigger than 9-1
Nine of the last ten winners of the 3.15 Newbury were priced at 9-1 or shorter
Jason Maguire has a 44% strike rate (7-16) riding hurdlers for Gordon Elliott – Layla Joan runs for them both in the 2.20 Doncaster
Seven of the last 8 winners of the 2.55 Doncaster came from the first three in the betting
David Pipe and Tom Scudamore have teamed up for eight winners from their last 21 runners
