Angus McNae's Racing UK Blog
	Sunday 4th May 2014

A three-way play in the fillies’ Classic

Let's have a go at the 1000 Guineas from three different angles. A decent each-way bet, a lay in the win market and a back in the place market. 

First up lets find the winner and back her each-way in case she gets ambushed by something completely unpredictable.

Miss France represents cracking each-way value in today's 1000 Guineas. I simply cannot crab her as some have after her run in the Prix Imprudence. That race was run at a crawl over seven furlongs, she got no running room and Maxime Guyon, her jockey, was at pains not to give her a hard race once she was out in the clear.

Her trainer Andre Fabre is always anxious that his horses do not have hard races in trials and she certainly did not. Now back over a mile in the Guineas, with an assured stronger gallop at a track where she won in a fast time last year and she looks like something to bet on at 6-1.

That's the each-way bet sorted. Now for the lay bet in the win market.

Rizeena is a warm favourite and her trainer has made no secret of his opinion that she will win. I am not so sure. While she proved herself to be an above average two-year-old filly she also showed that she was not infallible.

Lucky Kristale beat her at Newmarket in the summer and is three times the price. I agree that Rizeena represents very solid Group One form and the addition of Ryan Moore is obviously a bonus, but her price is a not just formulated on the basis of what she has done. It also contains its fair share of hype. Therefore she should be laid on the exchanges in the win market.

Finally let's get involved in the place market and back one filly at a decent price.

The horse is Lightning Thunder trained by Olly Stevens. She was second to Miss France in a race that was run at a decent pace and while some would look to downgrade the race because she finished so close to the winner, I think that is being disrespectful to her ability.

The clock tells us that she has plenty of ability. Her subsequent disappointing run was one run too many last year. She acts at the track and in a recent interview with James Willoughby Olly Stevens seemed to be very sweet on her chances. She could make the frame and at around 5-1 for a place she is worth backing.

Let's hope that we can get out of this with a nice Sunday’s afternoon profit, which will set us up nicely for the Chester May Festival which is all live on next week.

Angus McNae's Sunday tips:

3.50 Newmarket: Miss France each-way at 6-1 with Paddy Power

3.50 Newmarket:  Lay Rizeena in the win market.

3.50 Newmarket: Back Lightning Thunder in the place market on the exchanges.