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Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog |
| Saturday 10th May 2014 |
Don’t Bother Me if I win the Scoop 6!
Another devilishly impossible collection of races form the Scoop6, arguably the 2.45 at Nottingham is the hardest to solve and the 29-runner Victoria Cup is the last leg.
No wonder at the time of writing the bet was 8-11 to be won.
This week I have enjoyed a fun time. On Sunday I was basking in the sun at Newmarket, although I was suffering from the volume of the public address.
On Monday I went to Windsor for family fun day and to have a more peaceful time. The picturesque course was packed, and the temperature warm, yet there wasn’t enough focus on the racing for my liking. The bookmakers on course were redundant, and it was the fairground rides and the ice cream van that had the biggest queues; not enough people were round the paddock.
Yet it was amusing how the jockeys have to pick their way through those sitting on the grass and negotiate the queue for ice creams. At least everyone had something in common, we all agreed there were few betters way to spend the Bank Holiday and that was at Windsor Racecourse.
Tuesday all roads led to Chester for Britain’s best located racecourse. The weather scuppered the display of the pick of Chester’s beauty, but the racing has been as exciting as ever. What a luxury to enjoy Chester Cup day, networking with some of the on-course bookmakers and soaking up the atmosphere.
The crowd was not at capacity, due to the rain, but it is the absentees' loss. This unique course is a must to visit and not just on one occasion.
The course is an intense cauldron of bubbly enthusiasm, with the course squeezed beneath the historic city walls. The paddock is situated in the middle of the course, hemmed in by delightfully decorated and manicured hedges and hospitality - see 's excellent course walk if you've never been.
Betting turnover on course is traditionally very light, and nothing changed in 2014. I stood for a couple of races by a line of prime pitches that were taking plenty of bets but none of any substance.
For horses to shorten here it doesn’t take large sums of money, just a relentless momentum or because those standing have a keen eye on the fluctuations on Betfair. It's a different story for next week’s three-day meeting at York. It is nice to see Arod, True Story and perhaps Kingston Hill in the Dante Stakes. At this stage those are names that carry much more weight and significance than the victors of the Chester Vase and Dee; Orchestra and Kingfisher - things can soon change.
Giving you the whys and wherefores for my picks in the Scoop6 almost seem pointless as some results over the last few weeks as we all chase this monster pot have been hard to fathom. So instead I bid you good luck with fingers tightly crossed. And I’ll be back with a blog each day for York next week - if I haven't won.
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday Scoop 6 perm:
1.50 Haydock: Kris Spin, Trackmate
2.20 Lingfield: Moonrise Landing
2.40 Ascot: Pether’s Moon
2.45 Nottingham: Monsieur Jamie, Angel Way
3.30 Haydock: Swing Bowler, Vibro Valtat
3.50 Ascot: Don’t Bother Me, Brownsea Brink
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday pointers:
Nine of the last ten winners carried 9st-1lbs or less
Nine of the last ten winners were six or younger
Eight of the last ten winners came from the top six in the betting
Six of the last eight winners were having their first ever run at Ascot. Making their Ascot debut on Saturday - 19 Burn The Boats, 21 Tellovoi and 29 Ruwaiyan
With the exception of Global Village in 2012, nine of the last ten winners had no more than two runs in the season prior to the Victoria Cup
High-Rise is the last horse to win the Derby Trial, then go on to win at Epsom 1998.
Main Sequence won the Derby Trial on the AW in 2012 before finishing second to Camelot at Epsom
Seven of the last ten winners ran no more than twice at two.
Nine of the last ten winners had run just once in the season prior to Lingfield
Five of the last eight winners had raced over nine furlongs or more at two.
Eight of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting
Secret Gesture won the Oaks Trial before finishing second to stable companion Talent at Epsom
Look Here finished second to Miracle Seeker in 2008 before going on to win the Oaks
In 2009 Midday won the Oaks Trial then finished runner-up at Epsom
In1999 Ramruma won the Oaks Trial and then went on to win at Epsom
Since 2007 Ralph Beckett has won the Oaks Trial twice, had two seconds and a third. On Saturday he saddles three! (Honor Bound, Kallisha, Moonrise Landing)
Eight of the last ten winners had won at least once in their career prior to Lingfield
Eight of the last ten winners had race no more than three times prior to Lingfield
Four of the last six winners had raced over 10 furlongs on their latest start
Four of the last eight favourites, and seven of the last eight winners of the 2.40 Ascot came from the first three in the betting
None of the last ten favourites have won the 1.50 Haydock
None of the last ten winners of 3.30 Haydock were older than seven.
