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Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog |
| Tuesday 17th June 2014 |
I’m hoping for the Wow factor on day one
Life’s a beach, well for me, it was yesterday! With so many hours spent staring intensely into the laptop monitor and at a LCD screen it was time to clear the head and get some fresh air. It’s often while seeking a quiet moment that clarity is found. Sadly I can’t report a light bulb moment that revealed a Royal Ascot good thing in the sand but it did act as a good diversion from reams and reams of stats.
Here’s hoping all the hard work brings a winner - hat hire and finding five suitable outfits for this special week all mean a lucrative five days needs to be attained.
A couple of people have requested I save them a seat in the press room, but not being selfish it would be nice if I had one for myself. At least I’ll be at Ascot early enough (6.30am) to see if I have an all-important desk to work from!
Then I need a golf buggy to haul the luggage from the car to the press room for day one. All my research, change of comfortable clothing, trainers (as these five days and Derby day is the only time I wear high heels so my feet need respite during the day!), newspapers, stationary, laptop all needs transporting. While picking up my accreditation on Monday I was handed the responsibility of hat monitor and had to transport a couple of other millenary delights for female press colleagues. Such is my love of hats I could have stayed all day in London, in the studios!
There was a strong wind blowing across Swinley Bottom so it would have dried the course further and the sprinting pendulum sways back into Sole Power’s favour.
The amount of unsung heroes that work behind the scenes not only for Channel 4 and , but Ascot racecourse as well is large. As I arrived groundstaff were working tirelessly and I should imagine they still will be grafting long into the night. I salute each and everyone of them.
Once garlanded with labels and wristbands it was back to base and straight the gym for one final blast of cardio training. Normally I do seven training sessions a week, but this time round it will only be two. Muscles tauter and after a customary cup of tea it was time to have another glance at the markets.
After betting across the industry at 93% on Derby day morning I have no sympathy with the bookmakers for losing money. They were odds-on Australia just after the Dante Stakes, so why the need to push him out?
The violins may play but I don’t want to hear any sob stories about the St James’s Palace Stakes when in my opinion 2-5 coupled Kingman and Night Of Thunder is ludicrous! Obviously it is the ground which is making the bookmakers want to take on Kingman, while the layers are still to be convinced that Night Of Thunder can replicate his Guineas win?
Toronado is a lay for me, not so much for his layoff or his poor final run but Verrazano. Remember the improvement in form for Declaration Of War from his Lockinge run 12 months ago? He was heavily backed at Newbury, too. Verrazano is the one for me, especially with Soft Falling Rain there to make it a real hot pace.
As for the selections, Steps caught my eye at Epsom. He has shown time and time again he deserves a step up to the top echelon of sprinting. Epsom proved he is in tip top condition but he can ill-afford to be tardy at the start. Another to look out for in the race is Rex Imperator, who ran a cracker at Windsor on his seasonal reappearance. Five furlongs could be on the sharp side, so that’s why I haven’t tipped him but he could run a blinding July Cup trial at 3.45.
Pricewise may have flagged up Jungle Cat in the Coventry, but he has 20 lengths to make up on The Wow Signal on their Ayr meeting.
John Quinn has an exciting young talent with this colt and here’s hoping Frankie Dettori can guide him home. My main concern is Kool Kompany, who showed real tenacity to win at Naas latest with War Envoy in third.
Finally ahead of the five days if pitching in on the top jockey it would be Ryan Moore and James Doyle for me, with top trainer Sir Michael Stoute and a speculative few shillings on Edward Lynam.
Tanya Stevenson's Tuesday tips:
3.05 Royal Ascot: The Wow Signal at 13-2 with bet365
3.45 Royal Ascot: Steps at 14-1 with Betfair Sportsbook
Tanya Stevenson's pointers:
Nine of the last ten winners had won at least one Group One.
Six of the last seven winners had run in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury that season (Verrazano & Tullius).
Aidan O’Brien is attempting a fourth win in the race. (Verrazano).
Nine of the last ten winners had run no more than twice in the current campaign. (Mull Of Killough, Side Glance and Tullius have run three times to date).
Since being run as a Group One in 2003 nine of the eleven winners have been aged four (Ramonti in 2007 & Goldikova in 2010 were aged five).
The last time a horse aged over than five won was 1976 (Ardoon).
Eight of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting (Refuse To Bend 2004 and Ad Valorem 2006 were not).
Aidan O’Brien will be attempting a record breaking eighth win in the race (1997 Harbour Master, 1999 Fasilyev, 2001 Landseer, 2002 Statue Of Liberty, 2007 Henrythenavigator, 2011 Power, 2013 War Command).
The last eight winners of the Coventry were all unbeaten.
Nine of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting.
Since 2002 all winners had won on their most recent start.
Since 2002 all winners had had no more than three runs previously.
Sole Power will attempt to be the eleventh horse to win the King’s Stand Stakes twice (most recently Equiano 2008 & 2010 and Elbio 1991 & 1993).
Seven of the last ten winners were trained overseas (or ten of the last 20).
Since and including when Lochsong won in 1994 only three favourites have won the King’s Stand Stakes.
In the last twenty years only four three-years-olds have won Pivotal 1996, Mitcham 1999, Dominica 2002 and Equiano 2008.
In the last twenty years only two horses older than six have won, Takeover Target 2006 & The Tatling 2004
The last eight winners of the race had finished either first or second on their most recent start.
Eight of the last ten winners came from the first five in the betting.
Eight of the last ten winners had run in no worse than a Group Two last time out.
Seven of the last ten winners of the King’s Stand Stakes run at Ascot came from stalls 11 to 15. (14, 15, 12, 3, 11, 1, 11, 14, 7, 14) 11 Hot Streak, 12 Take Cover, 13 Ahtoug, 14 Guerre, 15 Steps.
4.25 ST JAMES’S PALACE STAKES:
In the last 20 years eight 2000 Guineas winners have contested the St James’s Palace Stakes, four have won (2002 Rock Of Gibraltar, 2008 Henrythenavigator, 2011 Frankel, 2013 Dawn Approach).
Over the last ten years seven Coventry Stakes winners have return to Royal Ascot the following year, five have won, this year War Command will go in the St James’s Palace Stakes. (2012 Dawn Approach, 2009 Canford Cliffs, 2007 Henrythenavigator all won the St James’s Palace Stakes, 2010 Strong Suit won the Jersey Stakes and 2008 Art Connoisseur won the Golden Jubilee).
All of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting, seven of them favourites.
Eleven of the last 20 favourites have won.
Seven of the last ten winners had run in the Qipco 2000 Guineas.
Six of the last eight winners had either won the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket or the Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh (Night Of Thunder & Kingman).
Aidan O’Brien will be attempting to win for a record-breaking seventh time.
Only one winning favourite in the last 20 years (since 1994).
Eight of the last ten winners aged four or five.
Seven of the last ten winners had run over hurdles.
The last seven winners had won over at least two miles.
Since 2000 four winners of this race had made their racecourse debut at Windsor.
Since 2005 three of the winners had made their racecourse debut at Musselburgh.
Seven of the last ten winners won on their most recent start.
Flashmans Papers was a maiden when he won in 2008 at 100-1.
Nine of the winners since 2000 had won on their most recent start.
Four of the last eleven years the race has been run at Ascot the winner has come from stall 7 – 2014 Commander Patten.
Since 2000 ten times the winner has come from the first seven in the betting.
Only once since 2000 has the winner had more than three starts prior to Royal Ascot.
The last Irish-trained winner was 1980 Cooliney Prince.
Only four winning favourites in the last 20 years.
