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Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog |
| Saturday 2nd August 2014 |
Cox can produce some Glorious Magic at Goodwood
Little to no rain as of 9am, and I thought there was a need for Noah’s Ark here at Goodwood!
The forecast at the start of the week certainly had me believe that I needed every bit of my wet weather gear. Instead at present as I look over the Downs it’s put on the sun cream once more.
There are 27 runners in the Stewards’ Cup, but as far as the betting goes there is only one – Muthmir.
All the misgivings of being drawn in stall two have dissipated, courtesy of Take Cover’s win in the King George Stakes from a low draw yesterday.
The manner of Muthmir’s York win last week has had a deep impression, and seeing as Heavy Metal was just denied in the Betfred Mile after a six-day break, the speed of Muthmir’s return to the course is of no concern.
William Haggas has won the race with Conquest, and last year Rex Imperator, who also returns but his last two runs far from inspire confidence.
Intrinsic is supposedly a Group horse in a handicap. However I have gone for Seeking Magic, who 12 months ago defeated Take Cover by a nose in the consolation race.
Reads pretty well now, and if you ignore his run in the Wokingham Stakes, which wasn’t too bad, he previously nearly landed the Investec Dash. He loves racing up with the pace and shouldn’t get in any trouble.
If the low draw is to prevail then rather than Muthmir how about Hoodna - she ran a cracker in the Bunbury Cup when third. She’ll have the strength, as well as speed, in dropping down a furlong.
On to the consolation race at 2.05 and Tatlisu seems the obvious choice he beat Muthmir at Newcastle on Northumberland Plate day only to be just denied in the Scottish Stewards’ Cup at Hamilton by Blaine. Ryan Moore takes the mount.
If you like an each-way dabble then check out the odds comparison sites to make sure you find those offering first five places, all important in these big field handicaps.
The beauty of typing the blog so late is that I can report on the real gamble of the day - Enlace in the 2.55 at Newmarket.
This Cheveley Park Stakes entry won at Hamilton on her only start and it seems they think there’s going to be a visit to the winners’ enclosure at Newmarket!
It’s been a fabulous, fun, enjoyable week with great racing, let’s hope the sun remains for day five!
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday tip:
3.50 Goodwood: Seeking Magic a t 18-1 with BetVictor
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday pointers:
2.05 Goodwood:
The last ten favourites have been beaten
Seven of the last ten winners came from stall 12 or above
Eight of the last ten winners were aged five or older
Kevin Ryan has had no luck with his 12 runners over the last decade
Slip Sliding Away has had nine runs at Goodwood resulting in four wins and two seconds
2.40 Goodwood:
The favourite has performed woefully in the last ten years with only one second placing and a third in that time.
Six of the last ten winners carried 8-13 or less
3.15 Nassau Stakes:
Nine of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting
Eight of the last ten winners had at least contested a Group One
Three-year-olds have been the dominant force in the race with only eight older horses obliging since 1970
Seven of the last ten winners had won at least one Group One prior to winning the Nassau
Seven of the last ten winners had finished no worse than second on their previous start
32Red Cup:
Seven the last nine winners carried 9-1 or more
Eight of the last ten winners were aged four or five
Seven of the last ten winners were drawn stalls 10 to 19
Eight of the last ten winners had no more than four races prior to Glorious Goodwood that season
Eight of the last ten winners came from the first six in the betting
All of the last ten winners had won over 6f
Fourteen of the last 17 winners ran in the Wokingham and of those 13 had had another subsequent run prior to Goodwood!
The last horse to run in a Group race prior to the Stewards’ Cup and win was back in 1981
In the last 25 years only one three-year-old winner
