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Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog |
| Thursday 21st August 2014 |
Comet can blaze across the Knavesmire
Kingman wins on Sunday, check. Australia wins the Juddmonte International on Wednesday, check. Over to Taghrooda.
Taghrooda is 2-9 in the Darley Yorkshire Oaks betting market but rightly so. She is unbeaten, with an Investec Oaks and a King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes as part of her haul. The fact she is even racing on the Knavesmire is a delight.
As mentioned in an earlier posting I am in disbelief that more isn’t being made about these three superstars - or at least their appearance this week.
Taghrooda at 1-4 is not a betting proposition for most - take heart though, as there are five alternative betting mediums on day two at York.
Get 4/1 on Taghrooda
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Kool Kompany has mixed it with the best two-year-olds already this season. A veteran of seven races and a winner of two Group 2s his appearance in the DBS Premier Yearling Stakes at 1.55pm seems too good to be true.
My one concern would be Valley Of Fire for William Haggas, who won the race for connections with Haikbidiac 12 months ago.
During Glorious Goodwood the one horse that was stealthily backed was Arabian Comet.
Missunited was the focus of the Lillie Langtry Stakes and showed, courage, guts and determination to hold off all comers.
Arabian Comet joined the hustle and bustle very late on, finishing very strongly and proving her supporters they weren’t far out. Utmost respect is to be given to the twice-raced Starlet, trained by Dermot Weld.
I need redemption after Indian Maharaja’s run in the Great Voltigeur yesterday; the nearest he got to his rivals was in the stalls. Nothing ventured, however…
Sat in the press room with a good view of the course on Wednesday I watched the family enclosure fill up to have a healthy crowd and called the offices to see where the money was landing, the common thread was Kingston Hill.
There was chaos later therefore, as bookmakers on-course tend to price up as soon as the horses have crossed the line for the previous race.
Kingston Hill was 11-8 for the Juddmonte International on some pitches, others had 6-4. The announcement of his withdrawal sent the ring into a frenzy.
Bookmakers aren’t accustomed to working out the show without the assistance of the exchanges! Early prices saw them bet 124%, SP was collected at 114%, and at best prices I saw 99%, and that could have been less as where I’m stood I only survey the rails bookmakers.
As soon as Kingston Hill was taken out Postponed was put in first show 2-1, in hindsight they should have kept him at that that price! It figures, too, as of the nine runners the only one not entered in the Ladbrokes St Leger won!
Having been a positive up until midday Australia began to be opposed on the exchanges come 1pm.
Layers on course were very cautious, a couple went 8-11 for a split second, though 4-6 was the general price.
Yet once the horses paraded in front of the stands the key bookmakers went 4-7 so 8-13 was a fair SP.
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Australia was a privilege to watch, yet The Grey Gatsby’s gallant run in second shouldn’t be lost - he has still to receive the recognition he deserves.
At this point I have to give a massive shout to James Knight from the Coral engine room - he really fancied Blaine in the opener – I should have listened.
I can’t watch Mass Rally’s run in the same race - he had a hideous run through, yet everyone spotted it so he will no longer be value next time.
Five non-runners in the first scuppered the place terms and put a smoke screen up to what horses were actually being backed.
On the whole a good day was had by all. Bookmakers reported little damage if any, and the victory of Felix Leiter in the finale took the shine off an otherwise bright, sunny day.
Bring on day two!
Tanya Stevenson's Thursday tips:
1.55 York: Kool Kompany at 11-4 with SkyBet
4.20 York: Arabian Comet at 5-1 with Betfair Sportsbook , MansionBet and Ladbrokes
Tanya Stevenson’s Thursday pointers:
1.55 York - DBS Premier Yearling Stakes:
Six of the eight winners were drawn in stall 11 or higher.
Six of the eight winners came from the first five in the betting.
2.30 York - Pinsent Masons Lowther Stakes:
In the last 20 years, 15 Lowther winners have gone on to race in the Cheveley Park Stakes, four have won - 2012 Rosdhu Queen, 2010 Hooray, 2003 Carry On Katie and 2001 Queen’s Logic.
Since 1994 10 Lowther winners have gone on the following season to run in the 1000 Guineas three have won 1994 Harayir, 1997 Cape Verdi and 2002 Russian Rhythm.
Fourteen of the last 20 Lowther winners came from the first three in the betting.
Seven of the last 10 Lowther winners had run at Royal Ascot (Three in the Albany Stakes, Four in the Queen Mary Stakes).
Seventeen of the last 20 winners of the Lowther had run no more than three times previously.
Seventeen of the last 20 Lowther winners had finished in the first two last time out
Since 1994 six fillies maintained their unbeaten record in the Lowther 2012 Rosdhu Queen, 2011 Best Terms, 2005 Flashy Wings, 2003 Carry On Katie, 2002 Russian Rhythm, 2001 Queen’s Logic, 1996 Bianca Nera (Cursory Glance)
Last time Ireland won the race was 1986 Jim Bolger’s Polonia
Margot Did in 2010, Fleeting Spirit 2007, Indian Ink 2006 all finished second in the Lowther before going on to greater things and Group One glory
3.05 York - Clipper Logistics Handicap:
Eight of the last nine winners have been aged either three or four.
Eight of the last nine winners carried 8-10 or more.
None of the previous winners had won at York
Navajo Chief has raced at York 11 times for four wins and a third, including in 2011
Only two of the last nine winners of York’s 3.05 had won on their most recent start
3.40 York - Darley Yorkshire Oaks:
Five of the last 10 favourites have won the Yorkshire Oaks (10 of the last 20)
Sixteen of the last 20 winners of the Yorkshire Oaks came from the first three in the betting
Seven of the last ten winners of the Yorkshire Oaks had won at least one Group One.
Seventeen of the last 20 winners of the Yorkshire Oaks finished in the first three on their most recent start.
Only two of the last 11 Oaks winners to compete in the Yorkshire Oaks have won, 2006 Alexandrova & 1999 Ramruma.
Since 1994 37 fillies beaten in the Oaks have tried to gain compensation in the Yorkshire Oaks and six have won (1995 Pure Grain, 2000 Petrushka, 2002 Islington, 2007 Peeping Fawn, 2008 Lush Lashes & 2011 Blue Bunting).
Yet the only filly since 1994 to be beaten in the Irish Oaks and come on to win the Yorkshire Oaks is Key Change in 1996 (34 have tried, 33 of them failed, and today, Volume & Tapestry have a go).
The biggest priced winner of the Yorkshire Oaks in the last ten years is 13-2.
