Tanya Stevenson's Racing UK Blog
	Saturday 13th December 2014

The ring at Cheltenham better be more robust on Saturday

After racing on Friday temperatures dropped at Cheltenham and sensibly the frost covers were deployed. Standing in the betting ring on Friday at the course was quite surreal - on National Christmas Jumper Day there were some crackers in the betting ring - it certainly cheered up the atmosphere, and no I was not tempted to wear one.

What was surreal was the depleted numbers of bookmakers standing there. It was quite stark and quite a few had representatives on pitches. This caused the market to be volatile, and it bore no relation to which horses were actually being backed. It was a reactive market.

I felt that Big Easy could have been bigger in the handicap hurdle, but the results before is race meant that layers were keen to hold on to their gains as turnover was sparse at best. 

The majority of market moves were tied to the exchanges but some of the drifts, for whatever reason, were not taken literally on course as many of the layers chose to be prudent on the percentages. The biggest bets were three figures, rather than four, and some of those betting on the rails were making their debut in that position and are unlikely to have the chance to stand there again. I suspect all will change on Saturday and the ring will be more robust. 

Performance of the day belonged to Kings Palace in the opening novice chase and the 7-1 for the RSA Chase is enticing enough at this stage. 

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I know it is only December but there are plenty more Festival clues throughout Saturday’s card and I’ll have a keen eye on Hargam, who was well backed and ran with credit behind Golden Doyen at the November meeting.

As for my other pick it is Rock On Ruby. We saw Starluck roll back the years on Friday and Rock On Ruby has every opportunity to land the Osborne House Relkeel Hurdle at 3.45.  His run in the Elite Hurdle showed he still has a keen appetite for success and he conceded plenty of weight.  It’s apt that I mention Starluck, he was sixth behind Rock On Ruby at Wincanton, which it helps frank the form.

Best tip on Saturday is to wrap up warm including the thermals, hats, gloves and all to keep you insulated wherever you are heading. Let’s hope Jack Frost doesn’t create too much mischief!

Tanya Stevenson's Saturday tips:

12.15 Cheltenham: Hargam at 11-8 with MansionBet and bet365

3.45 Cheltenham: Rock On Ruby at 7-4 with Ladbrokes

Tanya Stevenson's Saturday pointers:

12.15 Cheltenham - JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial:

Eight of the last nine winners came from the first three in the betting.

Katchit won the race before going on to win the JCB Triumph Hurdle.

12.50 Cheltenham - Ryman Stationery Novices' Chase:

Nicky Henderson has won the race twice in the last three years.

Eight of the last nine winners came from the first three in the betting, including five favourites.

Paul Nicholls last seven runners in the race have all been beaten.

1.25 Cheltenham - Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase:

The last four favourites have won.

All of the last nine winners have come from the first three in the betting.

2.00 Cheltenham - Caspian Caviar Gold Cup 

Only two favourites have won in the last 20 years.

Kim Bailey won the race back in 1991 with Kings Fountain. On Saturday he relies on Darna.

Nicky Henderson has had 20 runners since 1983, winning three times, second twice and third once.

Paul Nicholls has had 24 runners since 1998, winning three times, second three times and third three times.

Caid Du Berlais will attempt to become the fourth horse to land the BetVictor Gold Cup and the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup in the same season. Others being Pegwell Bay in 1988, Senor El Betrutti in 1997 & Exotic Dancer in 2006.

Since winning the race in 1998 AP McCoy has finished no better than third from eleven attempts.

Attaglance has yet to win over fences in ten attempts.

Easter Meteor has run at Cheltenham on eight occasions but failed to complete the course four times.

Seven of the last ten winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival in March.

Six of the last ten winners had run at the Paddy Power meeting (five in the Paddy Power Gold Cup).

Eight of the last ten winners had finished no worse than third last time out.

Seven of the last ten winners came from the first five in the betting.

2.35 Cheltenham - Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle: 

Seven of the last eight favourites have won.

All of the last nine winners had finished no worse than second on their most recent run.

Six of the last nine winners had run at Cheltenham on their most recent start (five of them had won).

3.10 Cheltenham - StanJames.com International Hurdle:

Since 2000 ten favourites have won, including the last four. 

Nine of the last ten winners of the International finished in the first two last time out.

The New One has only ever finished out of the first two over hurdles once in 13 starts and that was when he was third in the Champion Hurdle.

The New One has won four of his seven runs at Cheltenham.

Richard Johnson has won the race five times.

Nicky Henderson has won the race three times.

Comedy Of Errors and Large Action won the race twice, while Birds Nest and Relkeel won it three times.  

3.45 Cheltenham - Osborne House Relkeel Hurdle:

Nicky Henderson has won three of the last five runnings of the Relkeel Hurdle.

Nine of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting.

Eight of the 13 winners of the Relkeel Hurdle had run in that year’s Cheltenham Festival.

Five of the 13 favourites of the Relkeel Hurdle have won.

The last four odds-on favourites have won.