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Angus McNae's Racing UK Blog |
| Thursday 26th February 2015 | |
Godolphin second strings set to occupy the limelight
There is a distinctly low-key feel to the action in Dubai as we are closing in on Super Saturday next week and most trainers are saving their decent horses for that night.
Nonetheless we have the UAE Oaks and the Zabeel Mile to look forward to, and we also have the two big races from Qatar on the channel so it is going to be pretty busy.
Local Time is long odds-on to supplement her win in the UAE 1000 Guineas, in which she easily beat Good Place who is in the field again. The big question is whether the extra distance of one and a half furlongs will bring about a more competitive race?
I think it will. Local Time is bred to be speedier than Good Place, and does not have such a copper-bottomed dirt pedigree or one that has as much stamina.
Of course on dirt we must be careful when analyzing stamina concerns. This is because horses tend to stay further than you think because they use their speed early on and hang on in front, which gives them a big tactical advantage whether or not they have the stamina for a particular trip or not.
Thus Local Time may be able to stretch out her speed and win easily again. Yes, she will probably win but in my opinion Good Place will get a lot closer to her than she did in the Guineas.
Good Place has a top dirt pedigree, and the extra trip will really help her.
What she needs to do is break on even terms and race a little more kindly than she has done so far this season in Dubai.
On both of her starts she has been awkward at the stalls and then when she tried to make up ground and avoid the kickback she was then keen.
In the Guineas Adrie De Vries did a good job in settling her, but the damage had been done at the start. If she had broken evenly she would still have not beaten Local Time, but would have been closer. There really is potential for more from this filly.
Thus with extra ground to cover, a decent break and a pedigree that suggests she will be useful on this surface when she gets her act together I am prepared to back her to small stakes to cause an upset.
The Zabeel Mile is also going to feature a short-priced favourite in the shape of Safety Check.
His two wins at this year’s Carnival have been achieved impressively and have been backed up by decent winning times.
He is sure to go well, but Meydan punters have a problem. This horse has bags of speed, and is something of a seven-furlong specialist.
He steps up to a mile and there has to be a worry about his ability to be so effective at this trip.
He has won a handicap at Newmarket at this trip, but his form over seven furlongs is much better than it is at a mile.
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Quite simply last time out he hated the dirt. Now back on the lawn he looks to have a great chance of getting his promising career back on track.
Let's not forget he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Santa Anita in 2013 and was thought good enough to take on Kingman in the St James’ Palace and Sussex Stakes.
Recent history shows us that he has had little chance to win a race - now is his big chance and I believe he will take it.
It would be fabulous if Dark Emerald can win for Brendan Powell. Winning twice at the Carnival so far the horse has been a revelation. Having won at six furlongs and seven furlongs he now attempts the hat-trick at a mile. While he will give it a good go he is likely to be outclassed.
As far as World Cup Night is concerned, Main Sequence made his comeback at Gulfstream Park last weekend and maintained his unbeaten American profile with ease.
He is very much a live contender for the Dubai Sheema Classic, although the fact that he cannot race on Lasix does raise a concern as to whether he can repeat his American exploits in the UAE.
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Angus McNae's Dubai World Cup Carnival Thursday tips:
3.55 Meydan: Good Place at 9-2 with BetVictor, SkyBet and William Hill
5.40 Meydan: Outstrip at 11-2 with Ladbrokes and BetVictor
