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Five things to bear in mind in the Festival lead-up
Anticipation is almost at a climax as the Cheltenham Festival is virtually upon us.
To describe that moment when the runners walk towards the tape and the crowd roar is difficult because the emotions are personal to each individual. I tend to be introverted, but the atmosphere will bring me a wry smile.
We may all have different opinions about how each race is to unravel, but we all share a love of racing, the hope of unearthing a winner, and over four days it doesn’t get much better than this. You know at some point there will be an “I was there moment”.
I’ve sat on two preview panels; one at Doncaster, one in Holborn. Both were tremendous fun and made more so by the attentiveness and interaction of the audience. I just hope some sense was spoken.
I felt that a proportion of those attending had made their minds up already and just wanted confirmation of their own thoughts or a confidence booster. It’s the passion for this meeting that always amazes me. You wouldn’t think it could be any stronger.
At one point I heard a heckle of “shut up,” when I suggested Sam Winner as a speculative each-way bet for the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Yet, as with quite a few of my views, what I’m trying to demonstrate is to not to have a closed mind when analyzing races. Think how each race is going to be run, and who will be suited to that tempo. That is perhaps my first tip of the festival.
For example take the Skybet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Over the past ten years the average field size has been 18.6 runners with something blazing along in front. At the time of writing Willie Mullins has seven of the 17 runners, so I expect a final number of 12 to 13, which lends itself to a pace that isn’t frenetic, and is instead more controlled. It may not be the race you thought it might be.
The problems of backing horses ante-post is that although you get the fancy prices that allegiance is rarely rewarded as has been the case for me with this year’s Ryanair Chase.
A long way out I latched on to Eduard and thought that 25-1 was good value. His form did not appear to be much off the principals in this year’s renewal, especially at those odds but it has all now gone horribly wrong.
As Hidden Cyclone has diverted from the Queen Mother Champion Chase and now Foxrock has been supplemented! As I write this, the news that Toast Of New York has been ruled out of the Dubai World Cup rams home my point.
And yet, those big odds just lure you in, don’t they? Never mind Faugheen’s bid on Tuesday. Twelve months from now who will be in the Champion Hurdle? Faugheen, Jezki, The New One, possibly Peace And Co and/or Hargam and then you are struggling. Remember Douvan is owned by Rich Ricci, who also owns Faugheen, and if the latter romped up the hill to victory on Tuesday would he really want to pitch the pair together? At present Faugheen is 5-2 to win the 2016 Champion Hurdle, Douvan 10-1. You can back them both coupled at a price approximately between 13-8 or 7-4 or just pick on Faugheen. It may be beguiling to some.
The same thought process could also be true of Un De Sceaux’s 5-1 for the 2016 Queen Mother Champion Chase, where he could be up against Sire De Grugy, Sprinter Sacre and Dodging Bullets.
It is hard to escape that Willie Mullins will be top Festival trainer, but for my second Festival tip the top jockey market has reeled me in and I fancy backing both AP McCoy and Bryan Cooper. The latter rides for Gigginstown Stud, who had four of the winners on the final day 12 months ago.
AP McCoy with each day is gaining a tasty portfolio of rides for his final Festival and at a double-figure price he cannot go without support.
If Ruby Walsh wins the first two races, there is a case to go in again on the pair at inflated odds.
Which leads me on to my third Festival tip. We are more than aware that the Grand Annual, the final race of the Festival, is now named in AP McCoy’s honour. Many people are weighing into the possibility of the champion riding Ned Buntline, who is now 6-1 favourite, but be careful as McCoy could also ride Eastlake, who is 14-1.
Finally as I mentioned earlier I feel my Eduard punt has imploded, while Thomas Brown in the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle is an instinct bet.
At this point the horses who will be carrying my cash are The Druids Nephew in the Ultima Business Solutions Handicap as I thought his run behind Sam Winner in November was good and he confirmed his wellbeing in the Cleeve Hurdle. Plus when Neil Mulholland teams up with either AP McCoy or Barry Geraghty the records show a fruitful strike rate. The other horse that caught the eye was Edeymi at Musselburgh, when a running-on fourth to Dawalan in the Pertemps qualifier. In fact with Living Next Door, Ted Veale, Quick Jack, Blackmail, Edeymi, Mydor, Savello, Gallant Oscar and a few outsiders it wouldn’t be out of the realms of possibility he will be in the chase for top trainer!
More immediately on TurfTV on Tuesday the three I sided with for the Imperial Cup were Bidourey, Fascino Rustico and Arzal. The ground has dried up considerably, and it will be very warm and drying. To think a week from now it will all be over. Good luck.
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday pointers:
3.10 Sandown - William Hill Handicap Hurdle:
Since 1998 A P McCoy has won the race five times – today Zip Top.
The last horse to carry over 10-13 to victory was Korelo in 2003.
Paul Nicholls last 12 runners have been beaten in the Imperial Cup and he saddled the favourites over the last three years.
Blowing Wind is the only horse to carry top weight to victory since 1973.
Four of the last ten favourites have won.
Only nine four-year-olds have run in the Imperial Cup in the last ten years, two have won – Bidourey takes his chance on Saturday.
Last year Vibrato Valtat finished third, in 2013 Mr Mole pulled Up, in 2012 Sire De Grugy finished third, while Johns Spirit was sixth! All have major chances at the Festival next week.
2.00 Sandown - European Breeders' Fund William Hill National Hunt' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final:
Seven of the last ten winners have come from the first four in the betting.
Nicky Henderson’s last 16 runners have produced two winners, a third and four fourths.
2.35 Sandown - William Hill - Supreme Guaranteed Return Offer Handicap Chase:
Nine of the last ten winners have come from the first three in the betting.
3.45 Sandown - EBF Stallions/TBA Mares' Standard Open NH Flat Race:
Only one of the last ten favourites have won.
Alan King’s 12 runners have produced one winner four seconds and two thirds.
