Angus McNae's Racing UK Blog
	Saturday 25th July 2015

Durability not ability is the big question for Golden Horn

There is a reason why only one horse in the shape of Nashwan in 1989 has won the Derby, Eclipse and King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes.

That is because it's a tough test of a horse's constitution and durability.

In 49 days a horse is being asked to win three Group One races.

The Triple Crown in America has only ever been won by 13 horses and that is for a similar reason, because horses are being asked to win three Group Ones in 33 days.

Whether it be 33 days or 49 days from the start of the series of races, make no mistake the task for Golden Horn is immense even if turf racing is not as attritional as the dirt.

An element of chaos has been introduced into the King George today as a result of all the rain that has fallen.

If the ground is genuinely soft there could be an upset and it is easy to see why some punters have latched on to the mud-loving Clever Cookie.

However all things being equal Golden Horn should win easily. Endless debate about his form compared to the others is pointless - we already know he is the best horse in the race, it is far more pertinent to ask questions about his durability.

Wins in the Fielden Stakes, the Dante, the Derby and Eclipse may not have taken anything out of him, he may be fresh as a daisy. It is equally possible that those runs have taken the edge off him. The truth is that nobody really knows whether he will recoil physically from those efforts.

4/1 Golden Horn to win the King George
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In 2010 Workforce was well beaten in the King George after having a very hard race in the Derby. Indeed the ever perceptive Ryan Moore said after the Derby that he had perhaps given him too hard a race.

In 1989 Nashwan was well below form when scrambled home from Cacoethes. This shows that however good you are a tough campaign can eventually lead to a defeat.

The Ragozin sheets in America back up this theory in that they have identified that horses who run well in Triple Crown races and who post big figures are rarely capable of repeating those efforts.

History is against Golden Horn and while I want him to win from a punting perspective, you have to be a layer rather than a player

My other bet on the card is Heavens Guest at 12-1 in the Gigaset International Stakes 3.15.

He was a good fourth on unsuitably fast ground in the Bunbury Cup and under much easier conditions he ran a blinder in this race last year.

He is able to race off the same mark (103) as last year and with the rain having fallen another big run is on the cards. He should be backed each-way.

Angus McNae's Saturday tips:

3.15 Ascot: Heavens Guest each-way at 12-1 with MansionBet , Paddy Power and BetVictor

3.50 Ascot: Lay Golden Horn in the win market on exchanges.