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The Early bird will catch the worm at Dawn
The best-laid plans have been scuppered by the weather as I was all ready to do an across-the-card double on Home Of The Brave and Dawn’s Early Light. I will just have to rely on Dawn’s Early Light because of the softening ground at Newbury Hugo Palmer’s Home Of The Brave is a non-runner.
Tom Dascombe’s Dawn’s Early Light was supposed to head to Ripon for the Great St Wilfrid, but weather forecasts suggested the prudent move was to divert to Newmarket at the Betway Price Blitz Stakes in the hope any rain would bypass the venue.
On to the horse. If you’ve yet to watch him, you won’t miss him. He is a huge imposing grey and all he has done is improve all season. He come to the fore on his penultimate start at Pontefract, moving powerfully to the lead a furlong out and put the contest to bed in a couple of strides.
At Ascot last month onlookers would have been forgiven for thinking Dawn’s Early Light was just out for an exercise as Richard Kingscote had a very comfortable conveyance and never with a moment’s worry.
Of course Saturday’s race is not an easy penalty kick for Dawn’s Early Light, but his rivals will be wary of how much, if anything, he has in hand rather than the other way round at Ripon.
Now that Home Of The Brave is a non-runner, just who is going to set the pace in the Hungerford? At least Andrew Balding’s rain dance for Here Comes When has worked, perhaps a little little too well though.
The horse was just one place ahead of Breton Rock in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury in May. He has twice run up against Solow in Group Ones. Today’s task is much easier, so best side with the horse who relishes the surface.
York’s Ebor Festival is nearly upon us and I can’t wait, the entries for all the races are exceptional. Is it possible there are two Christmases in a year?
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday tips:
2.50 Newmarket: Dawn's Early Light at 6-1 with Paddy Power
3.45 Newbury: Here Comes When at 100-30 with MansionBet
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday pointers:
2.00 Newbury - Denford Stud Stakes (Listed) (Registered As The Washington Singer Stakes):
Classic winners Rodrigo De Triano 1991, Lammtarra 1994, Haafhd 2003, Just The Judge 2012 and Belardo last year all won this race.
Since 2000 every winner except one (in 2005) came from the first three in the betting, inc six of the last ten favourites
Only Kings Quay in 2004 and Somewhat in 2013 won having come via Royal Ascot (Palawan and Dessertoflife are trying to buck that trend)
Only three winners since 2000 had run three times or more prior (2004 Kings Quay, 2006 Dubai’s Touch, 2013 Somewhat)
Nine of the last ten winners had finished no worse than third on their most recent start
2.35 Newbury - Betfred Geoffrey Freer Stakes:
Frankie Dettori has won the Geoffrey Freer Stakes four times
Sir Mark Prescott has a 50% strike rate in August (10 from 20)
Eleven of the last 15 winners came from the first three in the betting – eight of those were favourites
Murghem in 2000 and Royal Empire in 2013 are the only two winners in the last 15 years not to have run in a Group race previously
All winners had won over at least 12f with the exception of Royal Empire in 2013, Census in 2011 and Sans Frontieres in 2009.
3.10 Newbury - Betfred 'Supports Jack Berry House' Ladies Day Handicap:
With the exception of Accession in 2014, Directorship in 2011 & Sawwaah in 2004 all winners were aged three or four
Nine of the last ten winners came from the first four in the betting
3.45 Newbury - Betfred Hungerford Stakes:
John Gosden has won the Hungerford Stakes five times: 1994 Pollen Count, 1997 Decorated Hero, 1998 Mutathir, 2005 Sleeping Indian, 2013 Gregorian – today he runs Richard Pankhurst
Frankie Dettori has won the Hungerford Stakes six times – today he is on Coulsty.
Since 2000 only Atavus in 2001, Balthazaar’s Gift 2009 & Lethal Force in 2012 came from outside the first three in the betting.
Since 2000 only Atavus in 2001 and Paco Boy in 2008 had won on their most recent run.
Seven of the last eleven winners had all run in at least one Group One previously (Breton Rock 2014, Lethal Force 2012, Balthazaar’s Gift 2009 & Chic 2004 had yet to compete at the top level)
Eight of the last ten winners had run at either Royal Ascot or Glorious Goodwood. (In 2006 Welsh Emperor and last year Breton Rock bypassed both)
3.30 Ripon - William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap:
David O’Meara has trained and Daniel Tudhope has ridden the winner of three of the last four renewals – today they team up with Eccleston
Pipers Note has won four of his seven starts at Ripon.
Spinatrix has never finished out of the first three in her 11 runs at Ripon with four wins, five seconds and two thirds.
There have been four winning favourites of the Great St Wilfrid in the last 20 years.
Only four horses in the last 20 years were drawn higher than 12 in the Great St Wilfird H’cap – 1996 Samwar, 1998 Cadeaux Cher, 2000 William’s Well, 2011 Pepper Lane
