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Play Astrophysics with Heaven’s Guest!
As Steps proved in the Ladbrokes Portland Handicap a week ago it helps when tackling the big valuable handicaps if you have some experience in Group races.
Not that anyone had cared to notice, but he had run in the King’s Stand Stakes and the July Cup so he had been towed along but the classiest of speedsters.
With that in mind its no surprise that the shrewdies are circling around Jack Dexter for the William Hill Ayr Gold Cup.
He too, has run in the King’s Stand and July Cup, but also boasts fair efforts in the Abernant, Temple Stakes and July Cup. He has since run in the Stewards’ Cup, achieving eighth but he is ready to rumble at a venue which has afforded him an Ayr Bronze Cup success.
The concern for me with him is that he hasn’t won since November 2013, and the last horse to carry top weight into the winners’ enclosure was Coastal Bluff in 1996.
Thee are a couple of intriguing jockey bookings for Buckstay and Lexington Abbey. Fran Berry comes in for the mount aboard Buckstay, who has been dependable all season but over seven furlongs. The range of distances he runs over knows no bounds, in 2013 he was pitched in over 12 furlongs, last year he was a brilliant fourth in the Cambridgeshire and this campaign he started off in March in the Spring Mile finishing second. He then claimed fourth over seven furlongs in the Victoria Cup and last time out, still over seven furlongs, he gained his first win of the season.
He does race up with the pace and is guaranteed a strong gallop so his entry can do nothing but make you sit up.
Kevin Ryan provided Pat Smullen with victory in this race in 2012 aboard Captain Ramius. He rode today’s mount Lexington Abbey into a respectable fifth in last year’s Silver Cup, having never being able to land a blow. But for the fact he could have a disadvantageous draw in stall seven he has to come into calculations.
Don’t worry! I haven’t forgotten Glory Awaits, who has his first run in a handicap since September 2012. Since then it’s been black type races all the way including the Queen Anne at Ascot this year.
Heaven’s Guest has been selection for this contest ever since his run in the Hungerford Stakes. I’m a bit gutted that form hasn’t worked out, but at least Heaven’s Guest hasn’t let the side down with a good fourth subsequently at York with many of today’s rivals behind him. He has finished fourth in the race in each of the last two years, but today he has a draw and a chance to dominate from the front – here’s hoping.
His biggest danger could and should be stable companion Don’t Touch - unbeaten in four and carrying the weighty responsibility of being favourite for the race.
He never looked comfortable at Ripon for whatever reason, yet still was good enough to cheekily nab Kimberella on the line.
Chris Wall could have the winner of the Ayr Silver Cup in Johara, whose only start this season was a fifth to Eccleston in a handicap at Thirsk. She is 2lb better off and has in theory a brilliant draw.
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday tips:
2.35 Ayr: Johara at 15-2 with Skybet
3.45 Ayr: Heavens Guest each-way at 20-1 generally available
3.45 Ayr: Astrophysics each-way at 50-1 generally available
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday pointers:
3.45 Ayr - William Hill Ayr Gold Cup:
Kevin Ryan has won three of the last eight - Glory Awaits, Blaine & Lexington Abbey
Karl Burke has won the race twice with Always Alight 1998 and Daring Destiny 1994
Nine of the last ten winners had taken in either the Stewards’ Cup, Bunbury Cup or Great St Wilfrid Handicaps. It was Redford in 2010 who avoided all three. The pool today who have run in at least one of the above races are Rene Mathis, Heavens Guest, Highland Acclaim, Don’t Touch, Poyle Vinnie, Toofi, Rivellino. Dinkum Diamond, Jack Dexter and Ninjago.
Draw stats are inconclusive as over the last 15 years as there have been eight drawn 15 or higher and seven drawn 12 or lower. Six of the last eight winners were drawn 15 or higher, however.
Seven of the last ten winners finished no better than third on their previous start
Since 1980 Hard To Figure in 1993 is the only winner older than six - Hoof It, Dinkum Diamond & Highland Colori all trying to defy the stat)
Three-year-olds haven’t the best record as over the last ten years 22 have tried and all failed - Don’t Touch & Astrophysics
There has been only one winning three-year-old across the last 20 years - Funfair Wane in 2002.
Only one winning favourite of the Ayr Gold Cup in the last 30 years - Coastal Bluff in 1996
Coastal Bluff was the last horse to carry top weight to victory - Jack Dexter
The last Scottish-trained winner was Roman Warrior back in 1975 - Jack Dexter & Sound Advice
Since 2000 the occasions when the draw of the winners of the Ayr Silver and Gold Cup were similar (same side) were 2001 17 & 22, 2002 24 & 16, 2005 1 & 2, 2013 26 & 19, 2014 27 & 19)
2.35 - William Hill Ayr Silver Cup:
Only two winners have been aged older than five: 2011 Cheveton, 2013 Ancient Cross - Jamaican Bolt, Hawkeyethenoo, Gran Canaria Queen, Barnet Fair, Nameitwhatyoulike, An Saighudiur, Chookie Royale, Foxtrot Romeo
Only two favourites have won: 2007 Utmost Respect and 2009 Kaldoun Kingdom.
Over the last ten years four winners have been drawn seven or lower and five have been drawn 20 or higher - Utmost Respect won from stall 15 in 2007
3.10 Ayr - William Hill Doonside Cup:
Nine of the last ten winners have come from the first two in the betting
Nine of the last ten winners had run in at least Group Three class that season
2.00 Ayr - Firth Of Clyde Stakes:
Three of the last four winners had run in the Ripon Champion Two Year Old Trophy – Chiringuita
Only one of the last ten favourites has won: 2005 Violette
Only one of the last ten winners was trained in Newmarket: 2005 Violette
Seven of the last ten winners had had at least three starts
All of the last ten winners had run twice
Seven of the last ten winners had run in at least Listed class
1.45 Newbury - Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup:
John Gosden boasts a tremendous strike-rate at present 41% in September
Frankie Dettori has a 36% strike rate this month, but on juveniles it boosts up to 67%
2.15 Newbury - Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes:
Nine of the ten winners came from the first three in the betting
Nine of the last ten winners had run in at least Group Three, three of them had run in the Prix Morny
2.50 Newbury - Dubai Duty Free Handicap:
Nine of the ten winners were aged either three or four
Luca Cumani has won the race four times from his last nine runners with 2010 Forte Dei Marmi, 2008 Presvis, 2007 Monte Alto & 2004 Spuradich - Laurence
Eight of the last ten favourites have been beaten
Eight of the last ten winners were drawn seven or over although the last two derived from stalls one and two
3.25 Newbury- Dubai International Airport World Trophy:
Eight of the last ten winners finished in the first three on their most recent run
Eight of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting
Seven of the last ten winners ran at Royal Ascot that season
