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Hobbs can Rock Ascot with Kasbah
Last weekend was a case of “what might have been.”
If Zac Blair had holed his 10-foot eagle putt on the 72nd in Hawaii. If Green Bay Packers had beaten Arizona in the playoffs, and a few others besides. And if Dromnea had finished second in the Classic Chase at Warwick (for those who passed on my blog last week, I had a combination forecast Russe Blanc, Dromnea and Foxbridge)
In attempt to stop hitting the crossbar it’s down to the business of eeking out the winners.
I’m not usually the one inclined to side with Evens shots but Le Prezien’s victory at Doncaster was so taking that it’s hard to divert the attention away from him in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Trial at Haydock.
He has an entry in the Betfair Hurdle, in which stable companion Modus heads the betting, but at this stage I’d being weighing into him for that Newbury event next month for which he is 16-1 with bet365 and BetVictor.
Firstly though it is worth remembering that Le Prezien was only a length behind Yanworth at Warwick in November and has obliged twice since.
The abilities of the rest are not to be underestimated, either, as three come into the race also having won well on their most recent run. He won’t be included in my multiples as I prefer attempting the impossible dream. Many of you know I will be mixing up the likes of Un De Sceaux, Vroum Vroum Mag, Le Prezien and The New One in doubles, trebles and an accumulator.
I am striving to be a bit more adventurous, though, starting with Fingal Bay in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock. He hasn’t ducked a challenge this season and was a fair second to Smad Place at Kempton, then was a brave fourth to the same rival in the Hennessy.
He gets stuck in when asked to battle as proved last time out at Ascot when drawing up alongside Wakanda and Virak but was unable to pass the pair.
He is 8lb better off with Virak this time. He is a little horse with an unlimited reserve of courage, and as a bonus he has also won on heavy ground.
Reve De Sivola presents a problem for punters back over fences in the Grade Two contest and is certainly a tease off his mark. They may not be able to get anywhere close to him. He lost nothing in defeat to Thistlecrack over hurdles at Ascot in the Long Walk Hurdle before Christmas.
He was never convincing over the bigger obstacles, however, but he did run in Graded chases and for him to receive weight from horses who he would be conceding to over hurdles it’s a hell of a poser.
As I like my combination forecasts this week’s three are Seventh Sky, with Reve De Sivola and Fingal Bay.
Regal Encore has had only four chase starts to date and his last at Plumpton would have boosted his confidence no end ahead of the Bet365 Handicap Chase at Ascot.
Now he has got to repeat all that and more by taking a step back up in trip.
Barry Geraghty’s mount was a very able hurdler, as shown by his seventh in the Pertemps Final at The Festival last year and a third in a Grade Three at Aintree. Perhaps it is time for him to be taken seriously over the bigger obstacles.
Every weekend we witness the strength and depth of the Willie Mullins’ stable this is no exception with Un De Sceaux, Vroum Vroum Mag in action at Ascot and Faugheen, Nichols Canyon, Artic Fire and Douvan to name the obvious stand out names set to line up in Ireland.
The odds compilers are poised to shorten those runners further for their respective Cheltenham targets, which is a shame as most are prohibitive prices this weekend and are only doing what they should do.
I’m going to put up Rock The Kasbah as one of my selections as he is the third member of the treble after his Haydock romp in November. He has been off for a while, Richard Johnson is aboard, and the horse could have some room to manoeuvre off his handicap mark. Here’s hoping…
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday tips:
2.05 Haydock: Le Prezien at Evens
2.25 Ascot: Rock The Kasbah at 8-1
3.15 Haydock: Fingal Bay at 5-1
3.35 Ascot: Regal Encore at 7-1
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday pointers:
3.00 Ascot - Sodexo Clarence House Chase:
Five of the last seven favourites have won
All eight winners of the were no older than eight
Of the seven Clarence House Chase winners since 2008 to go on and run in the Queen Mother Champion Chase four completed the double – 2009 Master Minded, 2013 Sprinter Sacre, 2014 Sire De Grugy, 2015 Dodging Bullets
Five of the last six winners of the Tingle Creek came on to run in the Clarence House Chase, they all won. Dodging Bullets, Sire De Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded (2009 & 2011) and Twist Magic – Sire De Grugy
Seven of the last eight winners won on their most recent run
Six of the last eight winners had run at the previous year’s Cheltenham Festival
In its current Grade One status Paul Nicholls has won the race four of the eight times
Sire De Grugy is trying to become the second horse to win the race twice
1.50 Ascot - OLBG.com Mares' Hurdle:
Harry Fry is attempting his third straight win with Desert Queen
Harry Fry has a 60% strike rate with his Ascot hurdlers
Ruby Walsh has won on all six occasions he has ridden Vroum Vroum Mag
Mrs S Ricci has won with three of her last five runners at Ascot
2.25 Ascot - '40 Years Of Keltbray' Holloway's Handicap Hurdle:
This season Harry Fry has had four winners from his eight Ascot hurdlers
Trevor Whelan’s eight rides on Lil Rockerfeller have resulted in two wins, two seconds and four thirds
Only one of the last eight favourites have won
David Pipe has had three wins, two thirds and a fourth
Six of the eight winners were aged six or younger
3.35 Ascot - bet365 Handicap Chase:
All eight favourites have been beaten
Paul Nicholls is hoping for a third straight win in the race.
2.05 Haydock Park - Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices' Hurdle:
Four of the seven favourites have won
Peddlers Cross went on to win the Neptune at the Festival in 2010
Cinders And Ashes went on to win the Supreme at the Festival in 2012
2.40 Haydock Park - Stanjames.com Champion Hurdle Trial:
The New One has won both his starts at the course
The New One has been odds-on on 12 occasions and won ten
3.15 Haydock Park - Peter Marsh Chase:
Only one of the last ten favourites have won
Seven of the last ten winners of the Peter Marsh Chase had run at Haydock at least once (2014 Wychwoods Brook, 2010 Our Vic, 2003 Truckers Tavern were making their Haydock debut)
Seven of the last eight years the Peter Marsh has been run on heavy ground
Nine of the last ten winners had at least eight runs over fences prior to the race
