|
Theatre Guide can take centre stage at Cheltenham
Tanya Stevenson was on the mark last week with 10-1 chance Shotavodka, who hacked up by 11 lengths at Newbury. Our columnist picks out five handicap bets at next week's Cheltenham Festival and gives you her Saturday pointers.
Cheltenham Festival fever has been contagious. Excitement and anticipation are at the threshold and, fortunately, there is not much longer to wait.
I’ve been asked to put up a few handicappers but multiple entries are still the biggest obstacle to deciding what, and then when, to punt.
Let’s start with Tuesday and a race that has been very kind to me over the years; the Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase.
Last year it was The Druids Nephew and 12 months on I’m hoping Theatre Guide will take centre stage.
His two previous visits to the Festival have been a disaster. He was pulled up in the 2014 Byrne Group Plate and was eleventh in the Ultima last year, but since then his CV has improved considerably.
He was third to Wakanda at Wetherby, which was followed by a second to Smad Place in the Hennessy Gold Cup. He was then pitched in at Grade Two level in really deep ground when coping well to be behind Smad Place and Many Clouds.
A month on he turned the Betbright Chase into a ten length procession.
For those exploits he is up 11lb in the handicap, that may not be enough of an anchor. The likely going will suit, and unlike last year he has now proved he is capable of competing with the best around.
He ticks the requisite boxes for me with regards current form, weight to carry and amount of runs prior to the race in my stats checklist. So fingers crossed.
Philip Hobbs has plenty of entries in the Plate at this stage, including top weight Village Vic, who has been racking up the wins. I’m watching out for a previous Festival winner of his, however, and that is Fingal Bay.
He won six of his eight hurdle races, including the Pertemps Handicap Hurdle in 2014. He has concentrated on the bigger obstacles since and only mixed it with the best, though he has not visited the winners enclosure since that Festival triumph. His fourth in the Hennessy Gold Cup reads well when Theatre Guide has done so well. He was a gallant third in the Peter Marsh Chase and as he is only a little horse extremes of going would not suit him. I can forgive him his run on heavy at Exeter last time and his current mark appeals.
Sometimes you look at a race and however obscure the reasoning you convince yourself that a horse cannot be that price! For once I was rewarded with Urano running in the Clonmel Hurdle over much shorter than ideal on February 18. He had top weight, he detached himself early and you would have forgiven Ruby Walsh for pulling him up. He is the type who would have traded at silly prices in-running on the exchanges. He still appeared to be without a chance three out, but he somehow crossed the line in front having been helped by a faller.
He has run in proper handicaps this season, including the Hennessy Gold Cup and never got into contention in the Thyestes Chase, though he still finished seventh. Softer ground would help him though I think that can be offset by the tempo of the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir. He is 6lb lower than when he ran in the Hennessy and looks dangerous at the silly price of 40-1 with SkyBet .
Mad Jack Mytton has been a little project of mine all season.
I can only blame myself for backing him on heavy ground in the Betfair Hurdle because it is clear now he does not like it! Added to that, when he was sparking into a bit of enthusiasm at Newbury he was badly hampered.
He has had only nine hurdle races to date and only ever been out of the first three twice. He was thought good enough to run in the Greatwood Hurdle, he ran a blinder behind prolific winner Solstice Star at Cheltenham in December and he conceded lumps of weight and was not beaten far. I would be very interested in him for the County Hurdle at 20-1.
I draw my thoughts to a close in the final race of the meeting, the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual. The wait for Dresden is almost over - he was etched in the now-frayed notebook in-running when he fell last year.
Obviously most of us watched Sir Anthony McCoy in his final ride at the Festival, if anything to soak up the atmosphere before and after. During the race I had backed Eastlake, who was second - what a traitor.
In the meantime, bang in contention and holding every chance when falling four out was Dresden.
Henry Oliver, his trainer, has not rested on his laurels and Dresden has been busy enough this season, with wins at Aintree and Ascot and since then he has run poorly at both Doncaster and Chepstow last time.
That has meant his mark has come down a little. I hope it’s sufficient.
Tanya Stevenson best Cheltenham Festival handicap bets:
Tuesday:
Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Chase: Theatre Guide each-way at 14-1 generally available
Thursday:
Browne Advisory and Merriebelle Stable Plate: Fingal Bay each-way at 20-1 generally available
Thursday:
Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup: Urano each-way at 40-1 generally available.
Friday:
Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle: Mad Jack Mytton each-way at 20-1 generally available
Friday:
Johnny Henderson Grand Annual: Dresden each-way at 20-1
Tanya Stevenson Saturday pointers:
3.10 Sandown - Close Brothers Imperial Cup:
The last horse to carry over 10s-13lbs to victory was Korelo in 2003
Eight of the last ten winners had run no more than eight times over hurdles
David Pipe’s 15 runners have produced three winners, two seconds, a third and a fourth.
David Pipe has saddled six favourites of which three have won
Paul Nicholls last 13 runners have been beaten in the Imperial Cup and he saddled the three favourites over the last four years
Blowing Wind is the only horse to carry top weight to victory since 1973
Only three of the last ten favourites have won
Last year Camping Ground finished fourth, Thistlecrack fifth, and Arzal was pulled up. In 2014 Vibrato Valtat finished third and in 2012 Sire De Grugy finished third, while Johns Spirit was sixth!
2.00 Sandown - 30th European Breeders' Fund Greenall's Gin 'National Hunt' Novices' Handicap Hurdle Final:
Eight of the last ten winners have come from the first four in the betting
Nicky Henderson’s last 17 runners have produced two winners, a third and four fourths
All of the last ten winners had run at least three times prior over hurdles but no more than five.
Four of the last ten winners had run in the Champion Bumper
Eight of the last ten winners had finished in the first three last time out
Brian Ellison is currently enjoying a 37% strike rate
2.35 Sandown - Kings Mistral Handicap Chase:
Eight of the last ten winners have come from the first three in the betting
Nine of the last ten winners were no older than nine
Eight of the last ten winners were making their Sandown debut
Eight of the last ten winners had run no more than four times prior
3.45 Sandown - EBF British Stallion Studs & TBA Mares' Standard Open NH Flat Race:
Only one of the last ten favourites have won
Alan King’s 13 runners have produced one winner four seconds and two thirds
