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Cheltenham compensation awaits for Festival failures
Just three weeks separates Cheltenham and Aintree this time around, with the effect of the shortened break as unpredictable as the difference between the two venues.
The entries on Merseyside further highlight Willie Mullins' efforts at trying to win the trainers’ championship - he has loaded the bases across the three days.
Such was the superiority of some of his horses at Cheltenham that it is very hard to believe a reversal in form can take place, but over the many years of attending Aintree I have witnessed the most peculiar results and a near 200 bookmakers on course and all those off course will be hoping that is maintained.
I hear a chilly wind blows across Merseyside at present with a few showers due to fall across the three days between sunny intervals.
Aintree ought to play to Cue Card’s strengths in the Betfred Bowl Chase, providing there are no ill effects from his Gold Cup fall which reportedly there has not been.
Arzal’s assignment in the 1.40pm is tricky, but Harry Whittington’s charge could well relish the tightness that the Mildmay course offers. A talented hurdler, he has adapted slowly to the bigger obstacles and, although hardly a natural, he has improved with each run.
If Azzuri is ridden with more restraint than he was in the Adonis at Kempton is a danger to all in the 2.15pm, though he could just set himself up as a target for favourite Ivanovich Gorbatov - the ground is not ideal for the Triumph Hurdle winner and it could pay, value-wise, to side with Azzuri.
Pacha Du Polder has every chance of exacting revenge upon On The Fringe over a shorter distance and with less ground to make up in the 4.05pm. They have both proved very able over the big spruce fences.
Bonus Abuse:
The ‘bonus abuse’ issue centring around the non payment of Cheltenham Festival winnings to punters from a select band of bookmakers appears to be slowing sorting itself out now, though I was a bit perturbed by the response from the UK Gambling Commission.
It leads me to question just who is responsible for policing Terms & Conditions and the ramifications thereof.
How on earth do you deem what Ts & Cs are fair or unfair when incidents such as this fall between both the Gambling Commission and IBAS? Though the onus is on us to read and understand them and maybe in the future flag them up to others when they seem a bit ambiguous, or at least confusing.
The Masters:
The Masters is unlikley to have started by the time you have read this as it dovetails nicely with Aintree. This year is a phenomenal renewal with so many of the top names playing so well and many on those on the periphery entitled to get measured up for the Green Jacket.
Phil Mickelson has an awesome Augusta record so can never be ignored. Jordan Speith started to wake up last week in Huston, and Rory McIlroy got to the semi-final of the WGC Matchplay in Texas.
Although he is a very unwise proposition to back to win Dustin Johnson could very well end up first-round leader. As for a winner I’m siding with Charles Schwartzel, who already has a Green Jacket and Louis Oosthuizen, who owns a Claret Jug and only lost out in the 2012 Masters in a playoff with Bubba Watson, a man for the big occasion. I only wish he hadn’t missed the cut at Houston last week, though he was probably tired from his exploits the previous week when tangling with an inspired Jason Day in the WGC Matchplay.
Tanya Stevenson's Aintree day one tips:
1.40 Aintree: Arzal at 6-1 generally available
2.15 Aintree: Azzuri at 25-1 generally available
4.05 Aintree: Pacha Du Polder at 7-2 generally available
Tanya Stevenson's Aintree day one pointers:
2.15 Aintree - Betfred Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle:
Six of the last ten favourites have won
Eight of the last ten winners had won at least two hurdle races
Eight of the last ten winners had finished in the first three at the Cheltenham Festival (three had won)
Alan King’s last six runners have produced four wins and a second
Nine of the last ten winners finished in the first three last time out
2.50 Aintree - Betfred Bowl Chase:
Only six winning favourites since 1984 and only two in the last ten years
Five of the last eight winners had previously run in the Betfred Bowl
Seven of the last ten winners had taken in the Cheltenham Festival
Seven of the last nine winners had run at Aintree before
Five of the last ten winners had taken in the King George
In the last 30 years See More Business, First Gold, Florida Pearl and Silviniaco Conti (twice) all won the King George and the Betfred Bowl in the same season, Cue Card will attempt to add his name to the list.
Only five of the last ten winners had run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup
Wayward Lad, Dockland Express, First Gold and Silviniaco Conti have all won the Betfred Bowl twice
Paul Nicholls will be attempting to win fifth Betfred Bowl with Saphir Du Rheu
3.25 Aintree - Doom Bar Aintree Hurdle:
Ruby Walsh will be attempting a record-breaking fifth victory aboard Annie Power
Only five favourites have won in the last 20 years
Nine of the last ten winners were a single figure price
Nine of the last ten came from the first four in the betting
The last six winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival (five of them in the Champion Hurdle)
Eight of the last ten winners had previously run at this Aintree meeting
Five of the last ten had previously run in the race
4.05 Aintree - Crabbie's Fox Hunters' Chase:
Nine of the last ten winners had been aged 10 or over
Since 1994 all but two of the winners came from the first four in the betting
Seven of the last eleven winners had run over the Grand National fences previously
Eight of the last ten winners had won on either one of their last two starts
4.40 Aintree - Betfred Red Rum Chase:
Five winning favourites since 2002
Since 1995 Oiseau De Nuit has been the only winner aged older than nine
Five of the last ten winners had taken in the Cheltenham Festival (four of those in the Grand Annual)
Seven of the last ten winners had previously run at Aintree
Only three of the last ten winners had previously run in the race
Since 1977 only two horses have won the race twice, Little Bay 1982 & 1984 and Kathies Lad 1985 & 1986
