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Webber’s very handy sort can hit Top note
Tanya Stevenson struck with 6-1 Arzal at Aintree on day one of the Crabbie's Grand National meeting and has a 20-1 chance in her cross-hairs.
A cold, wet and windy start soon developed into a bright and breezy day with scattered showers at Aintree, or were they layers’ tears?
There was double delight for the Willie Mullins faithful as Apple’s Jade and Annie Power were simply sublime and a majestic to watch. There was more pain for bookmakers with Cue Card and On The Fringe sending those layers to the emergency zone of their funding for the week.
There appears to be no respite of them, and in all probability more of the same beckons on Day Two – Ladies’ Day though with the aforementioned Annie Power and Apple’s Jade victorious I believe they had their day already!
The ground with its description on the soft side has a beautiful covering of grass, as if a dear grandmother has neatly knitted the green blades together interwoven with the tightest of stitches allowing there to be a certain spring and the freshest of crunches when walking upon it.
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Such detail is in the hope I continue to talk myself into the chances of Paul Webber’s Gwafa in the Imagine Cruising First In The Frame Top Novices' Hurdle.
On his last run, at least, he looks to have developed into a very tidy sort.
Remember him on the Flat? Very handy, indeed.
On his first race over hurdles he can be forgiven for falling out the back of the TV at Kempton, but lest we forget he was very competitive until two out and he was racing against none other than Altior and Marracudja.
A win at Fakenham was next, which shows that Aintree will be his ideal course; a flat track and tight turns. He then went on to Huntingdon and conceded weight to all and he won very comfortably.
From that day forward it’s been a marks-on-the-wall job counting down the days to Aintree. Alas I know he has to take on the might of Mullins in Limini, Betfair Hurdle winner in Agrapart, Gordon Elliott’s Ball D’Arc and Marracudja again, plus Supreme Novices’ Hurdle third Buveur D’Air. But at 20-1 with Paddy Power, why not?
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It’s Vautour’s turn to put on majestic, magnificent display in the JLT Melling Chase as on Thursday Willie Mullins clawed back the deficit from Paul Nicholls in the Trainers’ Championship. I am looking to Tom George’s Gods Own for the forecast as the trainer has a near 50% strike-rate at present and Gods Own ran a corker in the Queen Mother Champion Chase behind Sprinter Sacre. Friday’s trip will suit.
The Betfred Mildmay Novices’ Chase is quite a race with three Cheltenham Festival winners lining up. It could go to Native River, however, who was just beaten by Minella Rocco in National Hunt Chase. Certainly he and Blaklion could have a big tussle in the courage stakes.
The final entries are out now for the Crabbie’s Grand National, leaving Kerry Lee’s Bishops Road as first reserve. How I wish for her to get in, yet she still has him entered in the Topham Chase and he must have a sporting chance in that if fate does not decree that he should have a spin round on Saturday.
Tanya Stevenson's Aintree day two tip:
2.15 Aintree: Gwafa each-way at 20-1 with Paddy Power
Tanya Stevenson's Aintree day two pointers:
2.15 Aintree - Imagine Cruising First In The Frame Top Novices' Hurdle:
Nicky Henderson is attempting his fifth win in seven years
Seven of the last ten winners came from the first two in the betting
Four of the last five winners had run in the Supreme Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
Nine of the last ten winners finished in the first two last time out
Eight of the last ten winners finished no worse than third in their career
2.50 Aintree - Betfred Mildmay Novices' Chase:
Nine of the last ten winners were no older than seven
Five of the last ten favourites have won
Eight of the last ten winners took in the Cheltenham Festival, four of them ran in the RSA Chase
Over the last ten years nine winners came from the first three in the betting while the biggest starting price of the winner was 7-1
Paul Nicholls has had 13 runners across the last ten years with four winners, and four thirds
3.25 Aintree - JLT Melling Chase:
Barry Geraghty has ridden the winner four times
Nicky Henderson has trained the winner three times
All of the last ten winners of the Melling Chase had run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival in either the Ryanair Chase or Queen Mother Champion Chase plus four had won.
Seven of the last ten winners finished in the first three last time out
Eleven favourites have won the Melling Chase since 1992
Eight of the last ten winners had previous experience of the Mildmay course
4.05 Aintree - Crabbie's Topham Chase:
Nicky Henderson has won the race five times and is attempting is fourth straight win in the race
Peter Bowen has trained the winner of the race four times
Seven of the last ten winners had run over the Grand National fences before
Only three winners since 2001 has carried over 10-12 to victory (2008 Gwanako, 2014 Ma Filleule & 2015 Rajdhani Express)
Only two of the last ten winners had won in the current season
Paul Nicholls has saddled 27 runners in the last ten years but only had one winner, with 11 failing to complete
Only one winning favourite in the last ten years and even Gwanako was joint
4.40 Aintree - Doom Bar Sefton Novices' Hurdle:
Barry Geraghty has won the race on three occasions
Eight of the last ten winners had run in at least Grade Two level
Seven of the last ten finished in the first three last time out
Paul Nicholls last eleven runners have all been beaten
Only two winning favourites in the last ten years
Six of the last ten winners had bypassed the Cheltenham Festival
The four that did go via Cheltenham ran in the Albert Bartlett
