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Gwafa can atone for his poor Aintree run at Haydock
There have been a host of unsatisfactory Investec Derby and Oaks trials to date, which has left the onus on Lingfield and next week’s York meeting to assist in clearing the murky Derby and Oaks waters.
Of those that have already run, So Mi Dar should not be dismissed too lightly, as her experience of the intricacies of Epsom is invaluable.
We will find out how strong that is at 4.00pm on Saturday as the second Humphrey Bogart puts his and her credentials on the line. If only Mulk’s connections would allow him to run in the Derby, after his impressive win at Chester and was the most impressive horse at the Roodee of those with possible Classic pretentions.
On to Saturday and the Totescoop6 Victoria Cup at Ascot with 29 runners to sift through.
I’m going to take a chance that there is further improvement to come from Predominance, who made up for his midfield finishing position in Doncaster’s Spring Mile with a win over seven furlongs at Haydock. Part of me will also give a cheer to Supersta, who has done his owners, including Racing UK’s Richard Hoiles, Chris & Martin Dixon, proud but has only one turf win to his name. He has won six of his last 11 races, so fingers crossed.
I never had a run with Gwafa at Aintree. He settled well enough when he had nowhere to go and ran in to the back of Altruism when he unseated his jockey at the fourth flight of the Grade One Top Novices’ Hurdle won by Buveur D’Air.
Gwafa is very hard to assess in the Pertemps Network Hurdle at Haydock, though he should love the ground and could be on a competitive mark against last year’s winner War Sound, Scottish Champion Hurdle winner Ch’Tibello and the Paul Nicholls’ trio of All Yours, Some Plan and All Set To Go.
It is Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs on Saturday night, although I’ll be watching North Carolina, hoping Andrew Loupe finds it in himself to finish in the top ten in the Wells Fargo Championship!
Back to Kentucky, Nyquist is the favourite and the winner of four Grade Ones so hard to oppose him, but if you can believe the form and the running of Exaggerator in the Santa Anita Derby he is hard to ignore. It’s a massive field and there is bound to be sob stories galore, but I wonder if there is another American Pharoah in there?
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday tips:
2.15 Haydock: Gwafa at 7-1 with Paddy Power
4.15 Ascot: Predominance at 8-1
23.34 Churchill Downs: Exaggerator at 8-1
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday pointers:
3.05 Ascot - Carey Group Buckhounds Stakes:
Nine of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting, five of them favourites.
Five of the last ten winners had run in at least Group Three company
Seven of the last ten winners had finished in the first three on their most recent start
David Wachman has had three winners from his last eight Ascot runners - Torcedor
3.40 Ascot - EBF Breeders' Series Fillies' Handicap:
Only one of the last ten favourites have obliged
Chris Dwyer has had five winners from his last 13 runners
4.15 Ascot - Totescoop6 Victoria Cup:
Only three of the 20 winners carried 9st-1lb or more
Eight of the last ten winners were aged four or five
Eight of the last ten winners came from the top six in the betting
Kieren Fox has ridden Mullionheir seven times to five victories
Andrew Mullen has ridden Supersta nine times to four wins and two seconds
With the exception of Global Village in 2012, nine of the last ten winners had no more than two runs in the season prior to the Victoria Cup
2.20 Lingfield - Betfred Mobile Oaks Trial Fillies' Stakes:
Ryan Moore has ridden seven winners from 17 rides in May before he rode at Nottingham
Hugo Palmer has had five winners from his last 11 Lingfield turf runners
Secret Gesture won the Oaks Trial before finishing second to stable companion Talent at Epsom
Look Here finished second to Miracle Seeker in 2008 before going on to win the Oaks
Ramruma won the Oaks Trial in 1999 and then went on to win at Epsom
Since 2007 Ralph Beckett has won the Oaks Trial three times, had three seconds and a third - Mountain Bell
The last four winners had won on their most recent start
Eight of the last ten winners went on to run at Epsom in the Oaks two finished second: 2013 Secret Gesture, 2009 Midday
Nine of the last ten winners had won at least once in their career prior to Lingfield
Eight of the last ten winners had race no more than three times prior to Lingfield
4.00 Lingfield - Betfred Derby Trial Stakes:
Aidan O’Brien has won the race four times in the eight years he has had runners
High-Rise is the last horse to win the Derby Trial, then go on to win at Epsom 1998
Main Sequence won the Derby Trial on the AW in 2012 before finishing second to Camelot at Epsom
Only three of the last ten favourites have won
Seven of the last ten winners went on to run in the Derby, in 2012 Main Sequence finished second, in 2007 Aqaleem finished third, last year Kilamanjaro finished sixth
Seven of the last ten winners ran no more than twice at two
Five of the last ten winners had raced over nine furlongs or more at two
2.15 Haydock Park - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle
Seven of the last ten winners carried less than 11st
Nicky Henderson and Evan Williams have both the race twice in the last ten years
Only twice in 30 years has the winner been older than seven
Sean Bowen has a great strike rate at Haydock with six winners from his last 13 rides
Daryl Jacob boasts a fair record at the course with five winners from his last 15 rides
War Sound is hoping to become the third horse to win the race twice
Only three of the last ten favourites have won
2.45 Haydock Park - Pertemps Network Spring Trophy Stakes:
Eight of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting
You’re Fired has won both his Haydock starts
Seven of the last ten winners had at least one run that season
