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Aidan O’Brien will Somehow find a way to win the Oaks
Somehow, Investec Oaks Day on Friday could well be satisfactory for Aidan O’Brien. It is judgement day for Minding, yet we could be ignoring others at our peril.
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I was firmly in ‘camp superstar’ for the English 1000 Guineas winner after Newmarket and the Oaks appeared the obvious objective, but at no point did I think she would sneak in a run in the Irish 1000 Guineas. Connections of rivals such as Skiffle and five others smell opportunity, while O’Brien saddles two very strong stable companions.
Lest we forget the gamble on Seventh Heaven at Lingfield and how well she coped with the downhill turning run into the home straight, while the majority of us still marvel at the improbability of Somehow’s Chester success. The latter has won on a heavy surface and, although I don’t think Epsom is that extreme as it dries so quickly, I do believe it will be hard work for these fillies and Somehow was only starting to run at Chester when the race was finishing. She is my pick with the danger being Godolphin’s Skiffle.
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Proceedings all start at 2pm when the two-year-olds bound down the cambers in the Woodcote. Hyperfocus was impressive at Leicester on a similar surface and gets my vote.
What About Carlo makes his sixth visit to Epsom - he boasts two victories - and his third to Dark Red in April was indication enough he is ripe for another win. Ignore Chester last time, to some extent, as he was out the back and took time to react to his jockey’s urgings and the Roodee wasn’t his track. Back on the Downs with weights more favourable, he could oblige.
Arod should be away and gone in the Investec Diomed Stakes much like 12 months ago, but ground might be a concern. He made a solid reappearance at Ascot and his Group One form is superior. Something tugs at me that Oracolo is going to defy his 50-1 price in the race. He was quietly backed at York and ran a big race weaving through horses down the long run for home. He had entries for a couple of lesser races and connections have opted for the trickier test.
When is the Derby not the Derby?
A week on from Epsom’s ‘Breakfast With The Stars,’ the precursor to the Investec Derby for press, media, local residents and annual members I was lucky enough to be the holder of an invitation to the William Hill Greyhound Derby Lunch.
Both occasions are extremely glamorous and luxurious but the atmosphere at each event was not comparable. With the Greyhound Derby connections of the competitors embrace you and invite you along for the ride - it is what makes the Greyhound Derby roar and aligns it more with Cheltenham and Aintree than it does with the Flat. With the Derby we are just there on the sidelines watching from afar. The message at Breakfast With The Stars, I felt, was have respect for the race and admire it, which makes it hard to love.
At the Greyhound Derby lunch, the trainers and owners of the six greyhound finalists were brimming with pride, excitement and elation over their achievements to date. Cheshire cat smiles, a contagious passion and devotion to the sport.
Every connection was approachable, a delight, animated and with the exhilaration of reaching their goal. One dream on Saturday will be realised, while the other five will go home satisfied they’ve been great ambassadors for their sport.Remember generally dogs are racing they are racing for £150 at best, but on Saturday night it’s £150,000.
The whole afternoon was an injection of joy, without the inhibitions of pressure from one misplaced word that was painfully apparent at Breakfast With The Stars.
Tanya Stevenson's Friday tips:
2.00 Epsom: Hyperfocus at 100-30 with bet365 and Betfair Sportsbook
2.35 Epsom: What About Carlo at 5-1 with Sky Bet
3.10 Epsom: Arod at 3-1 with Betfair Sportsbook
3.10 Epsom: Oracolo each-way at 50-1 generally available
4.30 Epsom: Somehow at 9-1 with Sky Bet
Tanya Stevenson's Friday pointers:
4.30 Epsom - Investec Oaks:
Aidan O’Brien has won the race five times
Four of Aidan O’Brien’s five winners had raced at least five times in their career. Minding has of his runners
Aidan O’Brien has had seven favourites of the race and won with two
The last odds-on favourite to win was Reams Of Verse back in 1997 at 5-6f
Four of the last five winners were priced 20-1 or bigger
Ten of the last 30 favourites have won
Fifteen of the last 20 winners had run over at least 10furlongs prior, 13 of those 15 had won over that distance.
Fourteen of the last 20 winners had won at least twice in their career
Sixteen of the last 20 winners had finished in the first two on their most recent run
Over the last 100 years there has been three occasions when the Oaks had nine runners, the favourite won once in 1963 Noblesse at 4-11
Kazzia in 2002 was the last horse to win the 1000 Guineas and come on to win the Oaks. Minding tries it on Friday
Only two of the last ten winners had already run in a Group One (2006 Alexandrova & 2015 Qualify)
No filly drawn in stall one has won over the last ten years (today Turret Rocks)
Seven of the last ten winners finished no worse than third in their career previously
Eight of the last ten winners finished no worse than second on their most recent start
Over the last decade none of the winners had raced more than twice in the current season
2.00 Epsom - Investec Woodcote Stakes:
Mark Johnston has won the race five times
Seven of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting, including five favourites
Nine of the last ten winners finished in the first two last time out
Only four of the last ten winners had already run over six
Nine of the last ten winners had finished no worse than fourth in their career prior to Epsom
2.35 Epsom - Investec Wealth & Investment Handicap:
Only three of the last ten winners had won on their most recent start
Eight of the last ten winners were drawn five and above
Only two of the last ten favourites have won
Seven of the last ten winners came from the first four in the betting
Eight of the last winners carried 9st or more
Richard Fahey has failed to win with his last 12 attempts. He runs Miss Van Gogh and Imishvalla
3.10 Epsom - Investec Diomed Stakes:
Only two of the last ten favourites have won
Arod will try to become the fourth horse to win the race twice
Jimmy Fortune and Tullius have teamed up in 18 races and have won six of them and were third three times
All of the last ten winners had run in at least in Listed class once in the season (this discounts Mindurownbusiness)
Only three of the last ten winners had won on their most recent start
Only four of the last ten winners had previous Epsom experience
3.45 Epsom - Investec Mile:
Seven of the last ten winners came from the first three in the betting
Eight of the last ten winners were aged four or five
Horses drawn 11 have won the race three times in the last eight years. Persun is drawn 11 on Friday.
Only one of the last ten winners won on their most recent starts
