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There is no time for Quiet Reflection - stick with Dougie
There are memories a plenty to file as ‘I was there moments’ this Royal Ascot.
Dougie Costello must pinch himself when only a few seasons ago he would have been catching glimpses of Royal Ascot on the weighing room television before going out to ride in a chase or hurdle.
He rode Countrywide Flame to victory in the Triumph Hurdle, and was also aboard Midnight Chase for many of his successes and was aboard the much adored Monet’s Garden for his 2010 Old Roan win at Aintree.
Now a fully-fledged Flat jockey, Costello had his first ride in the Derby this year, having not long won on Quiet Reflection at Haydock. Dougie regularly went down to post at Ascot for the National Hunt code, on Friday he will be heading down the home straight in the Commonwealth Cup much, much quicker with the only obstacles in his way, being his horse’s rivals.
The defection of Acapulco has made Quiet Reflection’s task somewhat easier, but the dynamic of the race has changed as there is no stand out horse that will go clear and set a stern pace. Kachy comes into calculations as his sixth in the Temple behind Profitable is not to be shirked at, but moving up to six may not be in his favour.
When Jet Setting defeated Minding in the Irish 1000 Guineas there was a suspicion that Minding may not have truly been a superstar, despite the pair pulling well clear of the third. Those misgivings were soon erased when Minding replicated Houdini and managed to win the Investec Oaks this month. So how good is Jet Setting? Come 4.20 on Friday afternoon we will find out.
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Dermot Weld has collected winners globally and plenty at Royal Ascot, and his strike-rate at present is over 40% and he has Ebediyin as the favourite in the Queen’s Vase. He won on the soft at Naas in May and I sense the step up in distance will not be a problem.
It was a disaster on day three for the bookmakers on course and for me - I go faster than Mulk in my spinning sessions at the gym, and to add to the misery I had done a treble with Even Song and Order Of St George.
I saw bookmakers constantly paying out and received several press releases from off-course layers stating it was a winning day for them. With three winners for Pricewise and Order Of St George I can’t see how?
There were some big runs by placed horses who I thought were worth pointing out. The Last Lion in the Norfolk Stakes bounced back to the brilliance he showed in the Brockelsby Stakes, Sovereign Parade’s seventh in the Ribblesdale Stakes was eye-catching. Sheikhzayedroad was a brilliant third in the Gold Cup. David Simcock was out front watching the race nearby and I believe he wore the soles of his shoes away pacing around for the full two and a half miles. Aracanda in the Britannia was fabulous on the wrong side and at 66-1.
The big gamble of the day may well have been in Chelmsford’s 4.05pm - Adam Kirby, who has ridden two Group One winners at Royal Ascot so far, missed the meeting to ride at the Essex venue and he was aboard Luca Cumani’s Blind Faith who opened at 6-1 and finished 7-4 jf. Hope you were on!
Tanya Stevenson's Royal Ascot Friday tips:
3.40 Royal Ascot: Quiet Reflection at 2-1 with bet365
4.20 Royal Ascot: Jet Setting at 9-4 generally available
5.35 Royal Ascot: Ebediyn at 4-1 with Betfair Sportsbook
Tanya Stevenson's Royal Ascot Friday pointers:
2.30 Royal Ascot - Albany Stakes:
All 14 winners had run no more than twice previously
Thirteen of the 14 winners finished no worse than third in their career to date
Ten of the 14 won on their most recent run
The last 11 Ascot winners of the Albany Stakes were drawn 10 or higher
Ten of the 14 winners came from the first five in the betting
Irish challengers have only ever won the race once since its inception in 2002 (2008 Cuis Ghaire)
Four maidens have won the Albany Stakes (2011, 2007, 2006 & 2005)
3.05 Royal Ascot - King Edward VII Stakes:
Sir Michael Stoute has won the race on five occasions including in 2013 – Across The Stars
In the last 30 years there has only been one Irish winner - 2004 Five Dynasties
Nine of the last 20 favourites have won
Four times in the last ten years the King Edward VII Stakes has contained the subsequent St Leger winner (2010 second Arctic Cosmos, 2008 second Conduit, 2007 second Lucarno, 2006 third Sixties Icon)
Aidan O’Brien’s last 11 runners have been beaten, including four favourites (2013 Battle Of Marengo second at Evens and last year Adelaide second at 6-5)
Seven of the last 10 winners had run in at least Listed class
Eleven of the last 12 winners had run over at least ten furlongs
Nine of the last 12 winners had finished in the first three on their most recent run
4.20 Royal Ascot - Coronoation Stakes:
French challengers have won six times in the last 30 years
Irish challengers have won five times in the last 30 years
Since being made a Group One in 1988 the Irish 1000 Guineas/Coronation Stakes double has been done five times (2004 Attraction, 2000 Crimplene, 1995 Ridgewood Pearl, 1992 Marling, 1991 Kooyonga) (Al Bahathri did it in 1985 but the Coronation Stakes was a Group 2) - Jet Setting
Nine of the last ten winners came from the first four in the betting
Eight of the last 12 winners had managed to finish at least sixth in either the English, Irish or French 1000 Guineas
Eight of the last ten winners had run no more than twice in the current campaign
Eight of the last ten winners had bypassed Royal Ascot as two-year-olds
5.00 Royal Ascot - Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes:
Since 2000 only three winning favourites (2012 Camborne and 2014 Arab Spring, Arab Dawn)
Sir Michael Stoute has won the race six times
In the last ten years no winner has been older than five
Eight of the last ten finished in the first three last time out
5.35 Royal Ascot - Queen's Vase:
Mark Johnston has trained the winner on seven occasions (2014, 2011, 2009, 2005, 2006, 2003, 2001)
Sir Michael Stoute has trained the winner on four occasions
Aidan O’Brien has trained the winner on four occasions (2015, 2013, 2010 & 2007)
Over the last 10 years the winner has been trained by Mark Johnston, Sir Michael Stoute or Aidan O’Brien
Six of the last eight favourites have won
The last ten winners came from the first four in the betting
Nine of the last ten winners finished no worse than third on their most recent start
Jim Bolger is currently enjoying a strike rate above 30%
Dermot Weld is currently enjoying a strike rate above 40%
