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Hopefully it is third time lucky for me at this Richard Fahey runner
Nuno Tristan has had a very busy year and Saturday’s William Hill Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon will be his ninth start in 2016.
Part of me hopes the bottom of the energy well has yet to be reached and his light still burns brightly.
His last three starts have shown improvement and when dropping down to six furlongs at Goodwood he incurred trouble leaving the stalls and during the race and did well to get so close to Hoof It, who had been gambled on from 20-1 into 8-1!
Prior to that he ran a blinder when fifth in the International at Ascot to another in-form horse in Librisa Breeze. Stall 12 is helpful as Tony Hamilton can drop him in on his terms, rather than be short of room hard on a rail and have fate decide for you. So hopefully it’s third time lucky for me on Richard Fahey’s runner.
York’s fabulous Welcome To Yorkshire Ebor meeting is just round the corner and I cannot wait.
Time Test sadly will not be making the journey after running flat in a gallop at home. Many were less than enthused by what was thought as an underwhelming performance when he beating Mondaliste by three quarters of a length in the Sky Bet York Stakes. I feel that was a bit harsh on Mondaliste and that is why it is Arlington to where I head to for my other selection.
David O’Meara’s superstar had nine tough races last year starting off with a second in the Lincoln on March 28 and ending with the Group One Hong Kong Mile on December 13.
Such exertions take their toll, but he did scoop the Grade One Woodbine Mile. This season has been a slow burn and a complete contrast, as where he was able to build up gradually to Group One in 2015, in May he was straight in at the top level on heavy ground, a surface far from ideal, at Chantilly.
Then once again on a soft surface he faced Tepin in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot in June. Back on good to firm, down in class and over the furthest trip he has raced on during his career he gave Time Test the examination onlookers should have expected as Mondaliste has raced in six Group/Grade Ones to Time Test’s three and when they last met in the Breeders’ Cup Mile Mondaliste came out well on top.
That York run would have hopefully put him spot on for this latest globe-trotting effort.
This week saw the enforced retirement of Paul Carberry, with his seemingly pliable body not giving any flexibility any more. Outwardly eccentric, charismatic, yet an introvert at heart. He was a crowd pleaser - an exception to the rule.
When trying to study the form of a race if you weren’t picking the horse ridden by him then its ability and chances would always be the unknown entity, and often I’d be left marvelling at his mastery.
All the clichés could play out in one of his rides, as he could often be described as having ice running through his veins, as he sat motionless until the last possible moment. He proved more often than not that patience was a virtue as throughout his career he enchanted with his skill in the saddle.
The cheeky smile emblazoned on his face was often there after he defied probability from the unlikeliest position. There was no such word as “can’t” in Carberry’s vocabulary as he raised the fear factor bar with his exploits.
He had the talent to synchronise with the horse he rode, perched motionless in the saddle and sat in the slipstream, almost ghostly, and then glide past stealthily.
He set the template for extraordinary feats and his rides aboard Frenchman’s Creek and Sir Oj, both at Cheltenham, are amongst my favourites of all time. Sadly there is no one like him, he was a one off, he enthralled and captivated, thank you Paul Carberry have a happy retirement.
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday tips:
3.55 Ripon: Nuno Tristan at 9-1 generally available
11.09 Arlington Park: Mondaliste at 4-1 generally available
2.30 Newbury - Washington Singer Stakes:
Classic winners Rodrigo De Triano 1991, Lammtarra 1994, Haafhd 2003, Just The Judge 2012 all won this race. Belardo won in 2014 and went on to win this years Lockinge
Seven winners since 2000 won have won their only start previously
(2000 Prizeman, 2003 Haafhd, 2007 Sharp Nephew, 2008 Cry Of Freedom,
2009 Azmeel, 2010 Janood, 2012 Just The Judge) today Escobar
Since 2000 every winner except Innocent Air in 2005 and Epsom Icon last year came from the first three in the betting, including six of the last ten favourites
Only Kings Quay in 2004 and Somewhat in 2013 won having come via Royal Ascot (Frankuus and Mr Scaramanga are trying to buck that trend)
Only three winners since 2000 had run three times or more previously (2004 Kings Quay, 2006 Dubai’s Touch, 2013 Somewhat) (Frankuus and Mr Scaramanga are trying to buck that trend)
Mark Johnston has won the race three times from his last six runners (today Frankuus)
Frankie Dettori has won the race three times in the last nine years today Escobar
3.05 Newbury - Geoffrey Freer Stakes:
Twelve of the last 16 winners came from the first three in the betting – eight of those favourites
Murghem in 2000 and Royal Empire in 2013 are the only two winners in the last 16 years not to have run in a Group race previously – today Red Cardinal
All winners had won over at least 12f with the exception of Royal Empire in 2013, Census in 2011 and Sans Frontieres in 2009 – today Ormito and Humphrey Bogart have yet to win over that trip
Since 2000 only 10 three-year-olds have run in the Geoffrey Freer Stakes, three have won 2001 Mr Combustible, 2009 Kite Wood, 2011 Census – today Ormito and Humphrey Bogart
3.40 Newbury - Betfred TV Ladies Day Handicap:
With the exception of Accession in 2014, Directorship in 2011 & Sawwaah in 2004 all winners were aged three or four
Nine of the last ten winners came from the first five in the betting
Nine of the last ten favourites have finished in the first four
Eight of the last ten winners finished no worse than fourth on their most recent run
Both William Haggas and John Gosden are enjoying a strike rate of more than 30%
Andrea Atzeni has a 50% strike rate when riding for Sir Michael Stoute – Dollar Reward
4.10 Newbury - Hungerford Stakes:
John Gosden has won the Hungerford Stakes five times 1994 Pollen Count, 1997 Decorated Hero, 1998 Mutathir, 2005 Sleeping Indian, 2013 Gregorian – today Richard Pankhurst
Sir Michael Stoute has won the race three times – today Convey
Twleve of the last 16 winners came from the first three in the betting
Since 2000 only Atavus in 2001 and Paco Boy in 2008 had won on their most recent run – today Jallota, Golden Steps & Convey
Eight of the last 12 winners had all run in at least one Group One previously (Breton Rock 2014, Lethal Force 2012, Balthazaar’s Gift 2009 & Chic 2004 had yet to compete at the top level)
Eight of the last ten winners had run at either Royal Ascot or Glorious Goodwood. (In 2006 Welsh Emperor and 2014 Breton Rock bypassed both)
3.55 Ripon - William Hill Great St Wilfrid:
David O’Meara has trained and Daniel Tudhope has ridden the winner of three of the last five renewals – today Louis The Pious, Intisaab & Mujassam
Pipers Note has won four of his nine Ripon starts
The last three favourites have won but only five winning favourites of the Great St Wilfrid in the last 20 years
Eight of the last ten winners came from the first five in the betting
Only four horses in the last 20 years were drawn higher than 12 in the Great St Wilfird H’cap – 1996 Samwar, 1998 Cadeaux Cher, 2000 William’s Well, 2011 Pepper Lane
