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The Grey Gatsby and Almodovar for International riches
York’s Ebor Festival promises four days of exhilerating action. The depth of the races stand out along with so many reputations on the line.
There is one official preview at the York racecourse on Tuesday evening, yet checking out the calibre on offer, there ought to be an argument for more.
I treat it like a holiday. The view, atmosphere, tempo, entertainment is exactly what I’d be looking for in a brochure. Having visited the Knavesmire for so many years now, like Aintree, it feels like a spiritual home. Both venues do it right, put customers first, whether you are on the ground or in corporate, you feel valued and leave you wanting to come back again and again.
Yorkshire has much to celebrate already with David O’Meara landing the Arlington Million in Chicago and Richard Fahey claiming the Jacque le Marois at Deauville. Daniel Tudhope’s achievements in the saddle are gradually being noted, as his booking for The Grey Gatsby proves.
There are so many questions to answer in the Juddmonte International. How has Postponed recovered from the setback which stopped him running in the King George? Can he handle dropping down in trip? How many times can you go to the well with Hawkbill? Has the King George taken too much out of Highland Reel, especially now he tackles a deeper race?
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The race has been dominated by favourites and those towards the top of the betting, although Arabian Queen caused an almighty shock 12 months ago and with so much talent on offer I wouldn’t want to be rushing to back Postponed at a short price. Almodovar, chalked up at around 25/1, and the consistent The Grey Gatsby appeal to me.
I don’t doubt this is a tall order for Almodovar, but the son of Sea The Stars should appreciate the faster pace dropping down to ten furlongs. He almost stole the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot and it was the lack of experience which saw him falter close home.
This will only be his seventh race and I can see George Baker tacking in behind Postponed’s pacemaker, King Bolete, before kicking for home about two furlongs out.
However, he is a big price for a reason and he may not like the ground, so I have a back-up plan in The Grey Gatsby. Twice placed in this race, he was unlucky last time out when an experimental run over 12 furlongs didn’t come off. His conqueror, Big Orange has since won again and The Grey Gatsby should now be spot on fitness wise. He has his trip, he has his ground and the dual Group One winner looks set to give Yorkshire another reason to cheer.
Medicean Man is my pick in the Symphony Group Stakes (Handicap) even though I worry what he will do outside of his comfort zone, which is is Ascot.
He ran in last year’s Nunthorpe and ran really well in the King’s Stand Stakes behind Profitable, but since then his form has tapered off. I’ll forgive him his below-par run in the Shergar Cup as anything can - and generally does - happen in that event. His rating has dropped and the 5lb David Parkes takes off his back will help too.
As for the closing Betway Stakes (Nursery Handicap), I select a William Haggas runner in Naafer. Haggas loves having winners at York, has a 30% strike rate at the moment and Naafer is well worth a second look as she met lots of trouble at Goodwood last time, having previously won at York. She holds major claims.
Tanya Stevenson’s tips for day one at York
1.55 Medicean Man
3.40 The Grey Gatsby plus Almodovar each-way
4.55 Naafer
Tanya Stevenson’s pointers for York
William Buick’s strike rate in August is 9 from 23 and on two-year-olds it is 5 from 10
Sir Michael Stoute has a 32% strike rate in August
Sir Michael Stoute has had 3 winners from his last 7 York runners
John Gosden has a 40% strike rate in August
1.55 York: Symphony Group Stakes (Handicap)
Kevin Ryan is hoping for his third win in the race. He saddles Lexington Abbey
Four of the seven winners ran at the Dante Meeting at York
Five of the seven winners ran at Glorious Goodwood, three in the Stewards’ Cup, Tax Free ran in the Stewards’ Sprint and Caspian Prince in the King George Stakes
There have been no three-year-old winners
All seven winners carried more that 9st and six of them carried 9-4 or more
2.30 York: Tattersalls Acomb Stakes
9 of the last 10 winners won on their most recent start
5 of the last ten winners came into the race unbeaten
16 of the last 20 winners came into the race having finished no worse than third in their career
15 of the last 20 winners came from the first two in the betting
None of the last ten winners had run in a Group race
The last eight winners had run over 7f already
3.05 York: Betway Great Voltigeur Stakes
Sir Michael Stoute has won the race seven times – today he runs Across The Stars
Frankie Dettori has won the race five times. Today he is on Across The Stars
Since Powerscourt won for Aidan O’Brien in 2003, the trainer has had 19 runners in the race including three favourites (12 below 10/1) and all have been beaten
Only seven of the last 21 winners had run in the Derby. This year Idaho and Across The Stars represent the Epsom form
Eight of the last 21 St Leger winners ran in the Great Voltigeur en route to glory at Doncaster - 1997 Silver Patriach 2nd, 1999 Mutafaweq 4th, 2001 Milan Won, 2002 Bollin Eric 3rd, 2003 Brian Boru 2nd, 2004 Rule Of Law Won, 2007 Lucarno Won, 2012 Encke 3rd.
The first two home last year - Storm The Stars and Bondi Beach - finished fourth and second in the St Leger
3.40 York: Juddmonte International Stakes
Singspiel in 1997 and Tryptich in 1987 won the Coronation Cup before coming on to win the Juddmonte International – today Postponed
In 2008 Duke Of Marmalade won the King George before coming on to win the Juddmonte International – today Highland Reel
Aidan O’Brien has won the race on five occasions: 2000 Giant’s Causeway, 2008 Duke Of Marmalade, 2010 Rip Van Winkle, 2013 Declaration Of War and last year Australia
O’Brien has had 30 runners in the International with five winners and three seconds.
Aidan has had the favourite seven times, winning with four of them.
Frankie Dettori has won on five occasions: 1996 Halling, 1997 Singspiel, 2001 Sakhee, 2004 Sulamani, 2007 Authorized. This year he's on Wings Of Desire
Sir Michael Stoute has had the winner five times
John Gosden has yet to land the race but he has only had 4 runners in 20 years
Seven three-year-olds have won in the last 30 years
