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Sir Mark Prescott can propel punters in to a Sea Of Heaven in Cesarewitch
Aidan O’Brien continued to make history with consummate ease on Friday at the Rowley Mile. Less than a week after his one-two-three in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, this time he saddled the one-two in the Dubai Fillies’ Mile.
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That's another another Group One in the bag and he is edging ever closer to breaking Bobby Frankel’s record of 25. Remember he has odds-on favourite in Churchill in the Dubai Dewhurst Stakes. It seems hardly fair for any of his rivals at the moment, such is his domination.
As the race unravelled the early market proved wrong. Godolphin's Sobetsu was joined and, at one point, usurped for favouritism as on-course layer David Power stated some people had opted for “style over substance”. He was relating to the manner of Sobetsu’s maiden victory last month, rather than the Group One form of Rhododendron and her stablemate Hydrangea, who was second.
Rhododendron now is as short as 9-2, or as big as 8-1, for next year’s Qipco 1000 Guineas. Poet's Vanity caught the eye as well with her win in the Oh So Sharp Stakes and she is 25-1 for the aforementioned Classic next year. Apologies for tipping Fleabiscuit, but for her it was a bit like Matthew Fitzpatrick in the Ryder Cup, the ability is there but it was a big ask too soon!
The Newmarket betting ring was very sparse on Friday - I wonder how many standing today will return in 12 months?
Saturday promises to be a corker. I’ve already mentioned Churchill, favourite for next year’s Qipco 2000 Guineas, but he has worthy opposition and Rivet will not surrender easily. He is 7-2 with bet365 and Bet Victor without the favourite and he is the horse I want to be on.
Another winner for O'Brien may well be The Anvil, who just touched off in the Royal Lodge Stakes. He takes a while to get going but when he does he powers home strongly. The Dubai 100 Autumn Stakes is a race which has evaded his clutches and its time he righted that wrong.
As for the Betfred Cesarewitch, I’m well behind already having backed non-runners Pyromanic and then Life Less Ordinary. Perhaps it is time to call it quits, but not one to be defeated I’ve gone in gain on Golden Spear and Sea Of Heaven.
Obviously Sir Mark Prescott saddles the favourite in St Michel and I understand the argument that it is 15lb well in, but stalls 29 to 34 have only mustered four thirds and a fourth since 1988! Not ideal whereas stall one alone has had three wins, three seconds a third and a fourth in that same time frame!
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday tips:
2.55 Newmarket: The Anvil at 3-1 wit bet365
3.30 Newmarket: Churchill at 8-11 with bet365 and Betfair
4.10 Newmarket: Sea Of Heaven at 12-1 generally available
Tanya Stevenson's Saturday pointers:
2.55 Newmarket - Dubai 100 Autumn Stakes:
Nine of the last ten winners finished in the first two on their most recent run
Kingston Hill, Trading Leather, Nayef and Nashwan all won the Autumn Stakes before going on to greater achievements. Masked Marvel sixth in 2010, Simenon third in 2009, Overturn was fourth in 2006, while Dylan Thomas was second in 2005
Six of Aidan O’Brien’s last seven runners have been placed, three seconds and three thirds.
Aidan O’Brien’s last seven runners have been beaten, including four beaten favourites
3.30 Newmarket - Dubai Dewhurst Stakes:
Over the last 20 years there were 14 Dewhurst winners that went on to run in the Qipco 2,000 Guineas, and only three won: 2012 Dawn Approach, 2010 Frankel, 2001Rock Of Gibraltar
Over the last 20 years eight winners have maintained their unbeaten record - South Seas & Seven Heavens
Irish challengers have won eight of the last ten
Aidan O’Brien has had three winners, six seconds and two thirds in the last ten years
Rock Of Gibraltar led a 1-2-3 in the Dewhurst for Aidan O’Brien in 2001
Aidan O’Brien has won the race four times
The favourite has won 10 of the last 20
Fifteen of the last 20 winners had run in either a Group 1 or 2
Seven of the last eight odds-on favourites have won
Only seven of the last 20 had taken in Royal Ascot
Sixteen of the last 20 have won at least twice in their career previously
Five of the last ten winners had run in the National Stakes at the Curragh – Churchill
3.45 York - Coral Sprint Trophy:
Only two of the last ten favourites have won (2011 Sirius Prospect & 2009 Kaldoun Kingdom)
Michael Dods has had two winners from just five runners
Seven of the last ten winners were drawn in stall nine or lower
Six of the last ten winners had taken in either the Ayr Silver or Gold Cup
Kevin Ryan’s last 15 runners in the Coral Sprint Trophy have all been beaten, but he has had a third and two fourths
4.10 Newmarket - Betfred Cesarewitch:
The winner has broken from stalls one to 12 in 17 of the last 27 runnings
Fifty-four out of possible 104 placings since 1988 have come from stalls 1-12.
Only three of the last 27 winners have come from stalls 23 to 36, and only 18 of 104 places have come from those stalls.
Stalls one and 12 have both amassed three victories each since 1988.
Only twice in the last 13 runnings on good ground has the winner been drawn in a single figure stall.
Over the last 20 years horses coming out of stalls 1-19 have won 17 times, while those drawn 20 or higher have only won three times
Five of the last eight winners have been priced 25-1 or bigger
Only two winning favourites in the last 20 years (2009 Darley Sun, 2006 Detroit City)
Only one Newmarket-trained of the Cesarewitch winner in the last 20 years – David Simcock's Darley Sun
Only two three-year-olds have won in the last 20 years – 1998 Spirit Of Love & 2009 Darley Sun
Fifteen of the last 20 winners carried less than 9-0
Over the last 20 years seven winners of the Cesarewitch had previously run in the race: 1996 Inchcailloch, 1999 Top Cees, 2000 Heros Fatal, 2008 Carraciola, 2010 & 2012 Aaim To Prosper, 2014 Big Easy
Five of the last ten Cesarewitch winners had previously run over hurdles: 2015 Grumeti, 2014 Big Easy, 2008 Carraciola, 2007 Leg Spinner, 2006 Detroit City
Seven of the last 16 winners of the Cesarewitch had run in that season’s Northumberland Plate at Newcastle
Fifteen of the last 20 winners had finished no worse than fourth on their most recent flat run
Mark Johnston has won the race three times 1998 Spirit Of Love, 2004 Contact Dancer & 2013 Scatter Dice
