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Angus McNae's Racing UK Blog |
| Wednesday 8th February 2017 | |
Geraghty is likely to Movewiththetimes on Saturday - it is the right decision
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Rather than being against one particular horse this week, I am firmly in the camp of one who I believe will win the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday. The horse is Movewiththetimes and the reasoning is as follows.
1. I am sure we have not seen the best of this horse yet. He is a strong travelling, lightly-raced novice with bags of potential. The six-year-old gelding has won three of his four races under Rules in style. He was impressive and not extended in a bumper and two hurdles races and he now has to step up to Britain’s richest handicap hurdle. There are good reasons for thinking he will successfully and it was his defeat at Cheltenham in November behind Moon Racer that really put me on to this horse.
2. That race was the Grade Two Supreme Novices’ Trial and to my eye he could have finished a lot closer to the winner than he did. He was quite badly hampered twice in the closing stages when beginning to gather momentum and thereafter Barry Geraghty looked after him.
He was beaten only three and three quarter lengths and with a trouble free run I rate him as being right upsides the winner. He confirmed his wellbeing at Wincanton last month when routing 17 opponents in a novice hurdle when sent off a heavily-backed 4-11 shot. That win told us little more than we knew already, but I believe that Cheltenham race told us plenty.
3. His official mark of 136 seems very fair because the handicapper has not been given a shot at rating him any higher. His narrow, pushed-out wins over hurdles and the unlucky passage at Cheltenham has really given this novice a chance in a handicap, which has surely been the aim all along.
4. Some would argue the price has gone. He is now generally a 6-1 shot but if Barry Geraghty will ride him, as I believe he will, then he could go off at half those odds. Accordingly, I am happy to take 6-1 at this stage.
5. He is tactically versatile and if there is a lack of pace, which is a possibility, his ability to track the leaders as he did for his last win will see him ideally positioned. Equally his strong-travelling way of racing will allow him to sit wherever his jockey wants and, given his lack of experience for such a competitive handicap, this will allow him to adapt quickly.
6. Paul Nicholls has his horses in great order. He has had nine winners from his last 48 runners (19 percent)
Movewiththetimes could be a real blot on the handicap, given that we do not know how good he can be. My strong suspicion is that he could be very good and that 6-1 is fair value.
