Ebor Festival review: five horses to follow, and one overrated winner
From Item’s Juddmonte shock to Bacio’s romp in the Nunthorpe, here is what four days at York actually told us
Four days of York racing rarely settle down quietly, and this year’s Sky Bet Ebor Festival delivered more upsets than form. Here is the review, five horses worth following into the autumn, and one winner whose form needs a health warning.
This also marks the first entry in RacingBetter’s public prediction tracker. Every horse named below is logged with today’s date and its target race, so you can hold us to it.
How the week unfolded
Wednesday’s Juddmonte International was the shock of the meeting. Item, a 10/1 shot for Andrew Balding and Colin Keane, beat both market principals as world number one Ombudsman could finish only fourth and Constitution River burned out in a truly run race. The same card saw Maltese Cross avenge his Derby defeat to Christmas Day in the Great Voltigeur for William Haggas and Tom Marquand.
Thursday’s Ladies’ Day belonged to Kalpana. The 10/11 favourite for Andrew Balding won the Yorkshire Oaks by half a length from Sparan Nua, with last year’s winner Minnie Hauk only third, two and a half lengths back. George Boughey’s Libertango added the Lowther Stakes.
Friday brought the form horse of the week. Bacio, trained by Wesley Ward and ridden by Juan Hernandez, won the Nunthorpe Stakes emphatically, leaving defending champion Asfoora with no answer. Michael Dods saddled the unbeaten Arapaho Gold to land the Gimcrack, Al Nayyir finally landed the Lonsdale Cup at the third attempt, and Willie Mullins sent off Love Me Tender as favourite for Saturday’s Ebor.
Saturday: day four
Charlie Appleby’s Notable Speech justified favouritism in the Group 1 City of York Stakes, holding on by two and three-quarter lengths from Lake Forest under William Buick despite testing rain-softened ground over an unfamiliar seven furlongs.
The Ebor itself went the other way for the market: Love Me Tender, sent off favourite on his handicap debut for Willie Mullins, could finish only down the field as Alan King’s Daiquiri Bay swooped under Rossa Ryan to win by a head from Hopewell Rock, with Opportunity third and Ascending fourth.
Five horses to follow this autumn
The festival threw up plenty of contenders for the autumn, but five stood out clearly enough to back into the tracker below. Each comes with the race we think should be next on the agenda.
Bacio
Nothing at the meeting won as easily as this. A Nunthorpe romp of this scale points straight at the sprint championship races later in the year, the Sprint Cup and Champions Sprint among them.
Maltese Cross
He reversed Derby form with authority in the Great Voltigeur, and did so while carrying a penalty. The St Leger is the obvious autumn target, with the Arc mentioned as an alternative.
Kalpana
A clear-cut Yorkshire Oaks winner who beat her fancied rivals without being fully extended. She heads into the top staying-filly races with the form to match.
Al Nayyir
Third time lucky in the Lonsdale Cup suggests a stayer finally putting it together at the right moment. Group 1 staying targets later in the season look like the logical next step.
Daiquiri Bay
A tight-margin Ebor win, by a head from Hopewell Rock, completed the hat-trick after his Copper Horse Stakes success at Royal Ascot. Alan King’s stayer has done it with a beaten favourite in behind him, and staying handicaps or a shot at pattern company both look on the table this autumn.
One overrated winner
Not every winner deserves the acclaim, and this year Item is the one to question. He beat two fancied rivals in the Juddmonte, but the pace scenario did him plenty of favours: Constitution River went too hard too soon and had nothing left, while Ombudsman never got the run of the race.
A career-best form figure built on a collapsed gallop is not the same as a career-best horse, and his price for the top autumn targets looks short on the strength of one afternoon.
Prediction tracker: entry one
- Bacio, target: Sprint Cup / Champions Sprint (dates TBC)
- Maltese Cross, target: St Leger, Doncaster, 12 September
- Kalpana, target: staying-filly Group 1s this autumn (TBC)
- Al Nayyir, target: Group 1 staying races this autumn (TBC)
- Daiquiri Bay, target: staying handicaps or pattern company this autumn (TBC)
Logged 22 August 2026. Check back through the autumn to see how this list holds up.
