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Newmarket 2000 Guineas - 5th May 2012 

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2000 Guineas Trends
01/05/12

The first Classic of the season takes place at Newmarket on Saturday 5th May when the top 3yo colts do battle in the Qipco 2000 Guineas. The race has been dominated by Irish-trained runners in recent years with 6 of the last 10 going to horses from across the Irish Sea. Last year Frankel ran out one of the most impressive ever winners of the race and many will expect another clear-cut win from this year’s favourite, Camelot.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Camelot
© Caroline Norris

Camelot

Age
Race for 3yos

Breeding
Irish bred: 5-10-69
British bred: 4-7-62
American bred: 1-1-39
French bred: 0-2-4
German bred: 0-0-1
7 of 10 winners were by a sire that finished in the first 4 in the Irish, French or English 2000 Guineas (2 other sires had won group 1’s over a mile: Lockinge & Breeders Cup Mile & other had won the English & Irish Derby).
9 of 10 winners were sired by a group 1 winner over 6F to 8F (exception by Galileo)
10 of 10 winners were born before 6th April

Recent Form
8 of 10 winners won on their first run as a 2yo
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 86+ on debut
8 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut at Newmarket, Curragh or Gowran Park
8 of 10 winners had run at least 3 times before (2 exceptions were unbeaten in 2 runs)
9 of 10 winners had won 2 or more races
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 3 last time (8 won)
10 of 10 winners had their last run in August or later
7 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR last time out (3 exceptions posted it on penultimate start)
9 of 10 winners had won at group level (exception placed in a group 2)
6 of 10 winners were having their first run of the season (4 exceptions won a recognised Guineas Trial)
9 of 10 winners had won over 7F or 8F
4 of 10 winners had won at Newmarket (1 exception was placed on only run at the track, other 5 were having first run here)

2yo Races
National Stakes winner (Power): 21051257 (2-2-8)
Dewhust Stakes winner (Parish Hall): 148221 (2-2-6)
Coventry Stakes winner (Power): 00013 (1-1-5)
Washington Singer Stakes winner (Fencing): 01 (1-0-2)
Gimcrack Stakes winner (Caspar Netscher): 187 (1-0-3)
Futurity Stakes winner (Dragon Pulse): 2482 (0-2-4)
Mill Reef Stakes winner (Caspar Netscher): 200 (0-1-3)
Champagne Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 020 (0-1-3)
Superlative Stakes winner (Red Duke): 3580 (0-1-4)
Criterium International winner (French Fifteen): 0 (0-0-1)
Racing Post Trophy winner (Camelot): 060 (0-0-3)
Tattersalls Stakes winner (Crius): 0808 (0-0-4)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Champagne Stakes, finishing 233
3 of 10 winners ran in the Dewhurst Stakes, finishing 131
2 of 6 Irish-trained winners won the Railway Stakes
2 of 6 Irish-trained winners won the National Stakes
2 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes, finishing 12
2 of 6 Irish-trained winners ran in Coventry Stakes, finishing 61

3yo Trials
Greenham Stakes winner (Caspar Netscher): 306621 (1-2-6)
Craven Stakes winner (Trumpet Major): 971600253 (1-2-9)
Leopardstown 2000 Guineas trial winner (Furner’s Green): 14 (1-0-2)
Prix Djebel winner (French Fifteen): 8571 (1-0-4)
All 4 winners that had run that season won on their only start in one of the 4 races.

Trainers
Irish trained runners (6-4-33) have won the race 6 times since 2002.
Aidan O’Brien (4-1-24) has trained 4 winners of the race in the past 10 years.
John Oxx (1-1-2) has seen his 2 runners in this finish 1st and 3rd.
Mikel Delzangles (1-0-1) won this race in 2010 with Makfi.
Richard Hannon (0-4-14) has saddled 3 of the 6 placed finishers in past 2 renewals.
Jim Bolger (0-2-3) has seen his 3 runners all run well, finishing 6th, 2nd and 3rd.

Price
No strong trends on prices, though favourites haven’t had a great record since 2002.
Favourites (2-3-10) have won just 2 of the last 10, giving a level stakes loss of 6.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Sired by a group 1 over 1M, that finished in first 4 in a 2000 Guineas
• Born before 07/04/2009
• Won on racecourse debut & posted RPR of 86+
• Run at least 3 times (or unbeaten)
• Previously won at least 2 races
• Finished in the first 3 last time (ideally won)
• Having first run of the season (or won a Guineas trial)
• Won a group race
• Won the Dewhurst and/or National Stakes
• Won over 7F or 8F
• Trained in Ireland (especially by A O’Brien or John Oxx)

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