RacingBetter News
	Saturday 27th April 2024

Saturday Freebie: Leicester Runner Can Win Second Time Out Yet Again

Mixed feelings towards last week’s race.

The main selection was Bernardo O’Reilly and whilst he ran pretty well, and slightly outran his odds, he ended up finishing 6th which was one place outside the money and he had no excuses. He’s an old horse now and seems to be 6lbs or so below last year’s form so far. He’ll likely win a race soon but he probably only appeals as a bet if dropping down into a class 4 handicap, which he is now eligible to do.

The other recommendation was a place bet on Chairmanoftheboard. I couldn’t believe he opened up at a generally available 28/1 so rather than waiting to go place only, I backed him each way at that price. He looked like winning for much of the final furlong but just got collared on the line, losing out by a short head to my frustration. The place bet was still a winner, and hopefully more than covered the Bernardo O’Reilly stake for most of you, but it was frustrating for me that he couldn’t land the big priced win money too.

This Week’s Race

For most of the season I’ll cover Friday handicaps in this column but nothing appealed this week so I’ve decided to preview a Saturday race instead. It was a tough call on which race to look at as I have quite a few on my shortlist but most of them have some holes in them.

The race that I think we’re most likely to get an okay price AND a very likely run for our money is the 4.55pm at Leicester, which is a class 6 handicap over 6f with 14 runners entered. Probably not the most exciting of races but it will be exciting if our bet comes out on top!

Leicester Pointers

The ground looks almost certain to be either soft, heavy in places, or heavy, soft in places (probably the former). In testing ground at Leicester the pace tends to hold up, especially over a mile or less, and a middle to high draw is far more favourable than a low draw.  

Last Year’s Winner Makes Plenty Of Appeal

Ey Up It’s Jazz ran fairly well in defeat on seasonal debut last year before winning his next two starts and he looks to have been given a decent pipe opener last time out ahead of a repeat bid at this race.

He’s 8lbs higher this year, than when taking the race 12 months ago, but it’s highly unlikely this year’s renewal will prove as strong as last year’s race.

Ey Up It’s Jazz won that, making all, and then won again next time out. The runner up soon won three on the bounce and would go on to rate 23lbs higher. The 3rd won two starts later, the 4th won two in a row shortly after, the 5th placed a couple of times before winning, the 6th was runner up on his next start and the 7th won easily a few starts later. Ey Up It’s Jazz beat a lot of well handicapped horses that day and probably ran above his current rating to do so.

Possibly the most interesting piece of form is Ey Up It’s Jazz’s final run of the season, which surely proves he’s capable of winning off this sort of mark. He was runner up over 7f at Thirsk in a race where the winner won by over 4 lengths next time out, the 3rd won two of his next three and the 4th won two starts later (having found the Ayr Bronze Cup too hot next time out). That was an extremely hot race for the grade and backs up the impression that Ey Up It’s Jazz can progress further this season.

He may have been beaten 11 lengths on his reappearance this season but he almost certainly needed that and he still finished 4th of 14 runners in a race where several of those that ran well have at least run well again since, suggesting the form was solid if not as spectacular as some of the races he ran well in last season.

He seems equally comfortable over 6f and 7f so there is no worry about dropping back in trip here, especially as the emphasis will be on stamina at the trip. He’s drawn right in the middle and will almost certainly go forward in a race where there is not much in the way of early pace.

I’m not Cam Hardie’s biggest fan but as long as he’s very close to the pace he should give this horse every chance of winning again. The horse has still only had 8 handicap runs on turf and has won two of those and finished runner up in another two so he usually runs his race and is proven on both soft and heavy ground. His only blips last season came on his one run on good to soft and also his only run tried in cheekpieces, which he clearly didn’t take to.

Main Form Dangers

Ey Up It’s Jazz was a well backed 5/2 favourite last time out and was sent off favourite in four out of seven runs last season. We need some other runners in decent form in this race to ensure we get a backable price and fortunately there are a few.

McCaulay’s Tavern seemed to find his feet out of nowhere last time out when winning at Kempton but he’s yet to win on turf and is going to find his come from behind style tough to pull off here.

Hombre is a lightly raced last time out winner who should be vying for favouritism at the very least. He won quite impressively at Thirsk a few weeks ago and whilst that form looks okay, he’s another who likes to come from off the pace and stall 2 could make his life exceptionally hard here.

Cubanista is in form and has finished 2nd or 3rd plenty of times already this year but he’s difficult to win with (won only once in 30 starts) and he’s drawn low so he surely only has place prospects at absolute best.

There is no early market at all at the time of writing but I’d expect Hombre and Ey Up It’s Jazz to head the betting with McCauley’s Tavern probably third best. There’s not much else in here, despite a big field, to give us a price on our bet so anything bigger than 5/1, allowing us to go each way, would be very welcome.

Others To Note

We’renotreallyhere has been completely out of form for some time but seems to excel on very soft ground. He’s won both his starts on heavy ground and ran well on his only encounter on soft and perhaps a first time tongue tie will bring about a revival in fortunes for a horse having his third start for new connections. He’s one to check in the market.

Diamondsinthesand finished runner up at Kempton twice over this trip before disappointing over 7f at Wolverhampton last month. He’s a very infrequent winner but has finished 2nd a couple of times on soft/heavy ground so it wouldn’t be a massive surprise if he ran well from a good draw.

One Hart is surely one of the biggest dangers and is likely to be slightly overlooked in the market. He was runner up in heavy ground over a slightly inadequate 5f at Bath on his penultimate start and then the ground would have been plenty fast enough when an outpaced 4th over this trip last time out. He’s yet to win a handicap on turf (higher rated on the all weather where he has a much better strike rate) but he was beaten just a short head off a higher mark on turf this time last year and should track the pace from a good draw here so he’d make some appeal as a place only bet at the right price.

One other worth mentioning is American Rose. She’s difficult to win with and probably better on the all weather but on her penultimate start she was runner up in a race where the 1st, 3rd, 4th and 5th have all come out and won. Prominent racers were massively favoured in that race yet American Rose came from the rear and did comfortably best of those patiently ridden, meaning she was the one to take from the race. She didn’t back that up last time though and cheekpieces go back on here so she’s not totally reliable but it would be no surprise to see her run well on ground she handles.

Summary

So the selection has to be EY UP IT’S JAZZ who ticks all the boxes here. If he’s only a win only price he’d rate a fairly small bet as this is a big field handicap and plenty can still go wrong. If he's big enough to go each way (5/1+) he’d probably nearer a medium sized bet given bookies are likely to be paying 4 places and he just looks so solid.

He does have to improve on his seasonal debut and it might be a slight worry that the yard’s runners have generally been running well first time out this season (so maybe he won’t improve a great deal). He stepped up on a decent first run last season with an excellent second run so the assumption will be the same will happen here, with his finishing effort last time out that of a horse that would come on for the outing.

At least two of his runs last season (including the win here) point to him being a well handicapped horse still and with draw, pace, ground and the course seemingly in his favour here, everything points to a big run.

Hombre is the main danger on form but he might not find it as easy to make up ground here as he did at Thirsk so whilst he’ll probably run pretty well, One Hart is actually feared as the main danger, in part because he’s likely to race nearer the pace than many of these.

Kind regards,

Sam Darby - Winning Post Profits

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