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John Smith’s Cup 10-Year-Trends
09/07/10

The John Smith’s Cup is one of the big Northern handicaps of the season and it takes place at York on Saturday 10th July. The race is run over a mile, two furlongs and 88 yards and is always a highly competitive affair.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-4-19
4yo: 6-18-79
5yo: 2-7-51
6yo+: 0-1-44
3 and 4 year olds have the best record, having won 8 of the 10 runnings and accounting for 75% of the places from just over half the total runners.
Horses aged 6 or above have a terrible record, having gained just 1 place from 44 runners in the past 10 years.

Weights
Horses carrying 9-7 or more: 2-2-27
Horses carrying 9-0 to 9-6: 2-11-50
Horses carrying 8-7 to 8-13: 5-8-65
Horses carrying 8-6 or less: 1-9-51
5 of 10 winners (last 4) carried 8-7 to 8-13
Horses carrying a penalty: 1-3-20
Top Weight: 9020874000000 (0-2-13)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 102 or more: 1-3-25
Horses rated 90 to 101: 9-18-107
Horses rated 89 or less: 0-9-61
9 of 10 winners were officially rated between 90 and 101 from 55% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had run 1 to 4 times that season
9 of 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd on one of their last 2 starts
8 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR in their previous 2 starts
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 3 or better last time out
8 of 10 winners (last 7) won or placed last time out
8 of 10 winners had won a race that season (both exceptions had been placed on their last two starts)
8 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M 2F (1 exception had yet to run over further than a mile, other was placed over CD on previous start)
7 of 10 winners had won at class 2 or 3 level (1 exception finished 2nd in listed handicap, another placed in 2 handicaps worth over 50K and other had won last 4 starts but yet to run higher than class 4)

Other Races
Braveheart Stakes winner (Hillview Boy): 2 (0-1-1)
Zetland Gold Cup winner (Forte Dei Marmi): 0005072 (0-1-7)
3 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 in a 1M 2F Epsom handicap earlier that season
2 of 10 winners ran in the Wolferton last time out, finsihing 62
2 of 10 winners ran in the Cambridgeshire the previous season, finishing 02

Trainers
Richard Fahey (3-3-19) has won the race three times in the past 10 years, including 2 of the last 3 renewals.
Barry Hills (1-0-1) and Walter Swinburn (1-0-1) have also both saddled the winner of this race in the past decade.
Michael Stoute (0-5-10), Jeremy Noseda (0-3-8) and Michael Jarvis (0-2-5) have all saddled multiple placed finishers.

Draw
Horses drawn 1-10: 6-17-100
Horses drawn 11+: 4-13-93
No very strong trends to be gleaned from the draw over the past 10 years.

Price
6 of 10 winners (last 3) were priced between 11/1 and 20/1
No major trend to be seen from the prices.
Favourites (3-4-13) have a fair record in this race having won 3 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes profit of 2.00.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 3 or 4
• Carrying 8-7 to 8-13
• Officially rated 90 to 101
• Finished in the first 5 in a class 3 or higher last time out
• Finished 1st or 2nd on one of last two starts
• Won a race this season
• Won at class 2 or 3 level
• Won over 1M 2F
• Trained by Richard Fahey or Michael Stoute