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Ebor Handicap 10-Year-Trends
09/08/10

The Totesport Ebor Handicap is the showpiece event of York’s four day Ebor Festival which starts on Tuesday 17th August. The race is run over 1M 6F but, despite the length of the race, the draw still seems to be play a big part, with a higher draw appearing to be a definite advantage.

The Ebor meeting was abandoned at York in 2008 season after the track was waterlogged. The Ebor was run as the Newburgh handicap at Newbury but from a trends point of view we will focus on the last 10 runnings of the Ebor at York.

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years (1999-2009):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
3yo: 2-7-16
4yo: 2-12-86
5yo: 5-8-59
6yo+: 1-3-44
3 year olds have the best record, having won 2 of the 10 runnings from less than 8% of the total runners and 60% of their vintage making the frame.
5 year olds have won 5 of the last 10 runnings from approximately 28.8% of the runners.
Horses aged 6 or above have a terrible record, having gained just 1 win from 44 runners in the past 10 runnings.

Weights
Horses carrying 8-13 or more: 2-16-97
Horses carrying 8-12 or less: 8-14-110
Only 2 horses since 1995 have carried over 8-12 to victory.

Official Ratings
Horses rated 103 to 112: 0-8-36
Horses rated 92 to 102: 6-18-125
Horses rated 91 or less: 4-4-44
8 of last 10 winners have all been officially rated between 90 and 101.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners finished in the first two on 1 of last 2 starts
9 of 10 winners ran in a class 2 or better last time out
10 of 10 winners posted their highest RPR of last 12 months in their last 2 starts
10 of 10 winners had run in past 40 days
9 of 10 winners had won a race that season
8 of 10 winners won a class 3 or better (2 exceptions finished 2nd in group race)
8 of 10 winners had run in 8 or fewer handicaps
8 of 10 winners had previously won over 1M 4F+ (one exception was placed in group 3 over 1M 6F, other had not run over further than 1M 2F)
5 of 10 winners ran at Goodwood last time out
3 of 10 winners ran at Ascot last time out
2 of 10 winners ran in Ireland last time out

Other Races
Summer Stakes winner (Martyr): 30136 (1-2-5)
Northumberland Plate winner (Overturn): 00410 (1-1-5)
Braveheart handicap winner (Hillview Boy): 93 (0-1-2)
Duke Of Edinburgh handicap winner (Cill Rialaig): 30 (0-1-2)
Old Newton Cup winner (Dangerous Midge): 80500 (0-0-5)
2 of 10 winners ran in Ascot Stakes, finishing 72
2 of 10 winners ran in Summer Stakes at Goodwood, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in Northumberland Plate, finishing 41
2 of 10 winners ran in Icap Handicap at Ascot, finishing 46

Trainers
Luca Cumani (3-2-8) has won the race three times in the past 10 runnings, with 6 of his 8 runners making the first 6 home.
Aidan O’Brien (1-3-7) does particularly well with his 3yos. The five 3yos he has saddled in the last 10 runnings have finished 17th-1st-3rd-2nd-2nd.
David Elsworth (1-2-4) has gained a win and 2 places from his last 4 runners in the race.
Amanda Perrett (1-1-6) and Jane Chapple-Hyam (1-0-2) have both trained the winner in the past 10 runnings.

Draw
Horses drawn the highest 7 stalls: 8-8-70
Horses drawn in the middle stalls: 0-8-65
Horses drawn in the bottom 7 stalls: 2-14-70
All 10 winners have been drawn in the highest or lowest 7 stalls but there is a serious bias to those drawn in the highest 7 stalls, which is where 8 of the last 10 winners came from.

Price
No strong trend to be gleaned from the prices with 5 of the winners going off 11/1 or shorter and the other 5 going off 16/1 or bigger including one at 100/1.
Favourites (1-5-10) have won just 1 of the last 10 and giving a level stakes loss of 5.50.

Summary:
Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 3 or 5
• Carrying 8-12 or less
• Officially rated 90 to 101
• Finished in the first two in 1 of last 2 runs
• Won a race this season
• Ran in a class 2 or better in the last 40 days
• Had last run at Goodwood or Ascot
• Run in 8 or fewer handicaps
• Won at class 3 level or higher
• Won over 1M 4F+
• Drawn in highest 7 stalls
• Trained by Luca Cumani, David Elsworth or an Aidan O’Brien 3yo