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Is Camelot Left to Fly the Flag for a Below Par Crop of Three Year Olds? 11/07/12

As most flat racing fans are aware the Group 1 Coral Eclipse is the first opportunity in the season that the current "classic generation" have to take on their older rivals over a middle distance. Over the years, they have met with limited success, with only five horses aged three year old winning the 1m 2f Sandown contest since 1992. In that same time frame, sixteen horses aged four or five years old have found the winners enclosure.

Bonfire
© Racehorse Photos

This year, the youngsters were only represented by one runner, in the form of the Dante winner, Bonfire, who although was reported lame at the end of the race, was soundly beaten back in sixth place. Trained by Andrew Balding, Bonfire trailed in over 20 lengths or so behind the winner, Nathaniel, with a performance that together with the absence of so many other three year olds, raises the question about whether the current crop of three year olds is as good as years gone by?

Nathaniel won the Group 1 King George Vl and Queen Elizabeth ll Stakes at Ascot as a three year old last year and he is one of the very few horses to have given the unbeaten Frankel a run for his money, finishing just 1½ lengths behind him in an eight furlong maiden at Newmarket in 2010. Trainer, John Gosden, has not ruled out the possibility that he could well look to take on Frankel again later this season, possibly in the International Stakes over 10 furlongs at York next month. Gosden who remains in top training form is also considering Nathaniel for a second tilt at the "King George", which he won 12 months ago but much will depend on how he comes out of the Eclipse. Last weekend's win was his first run of the season and he is sure to come on for that, which makes this son of Galileo a promising prospect for the remainder of the season.

Camelot
© Caroline Norris

The progress of Nathaniel doesn't however, answer the question about the state of the three year olds running over middle distances this season. Without doubt, the 2000 Guineas winner and English and Irish Derby winner, Camelot, is a superstar in the making and the pick of three year olds in 2012 but Bonfire's effort in the Eclipse together with his disappointing sixth when second favourite to Camelot in the Derby does suggested his early season hype may have been a little premature.

Runner up to Camelot in the Derby, Main Sequence, has not been seen since that effort to frank Camelot's form but third and fourth on that day, fellow O'Brien runner, Astrology and Thought Worthy, came up short in the King Edward VII Stakes at Ascot last month. That race was won by Henry Cecil's Thomas Chippendale, who made the leap from handicap company to land that race!

One three year old that did rise to prominence last weekend was the John Gosden trained, Great Heavens, who in fact is a full sister to Nathaniel and demolished eight rivals in the Lancashire Oaks. Her next step is unknown but she will likely tackle the Colts at some stage later in the season and will be one to keep a close eye on.

The next test will for three year olds against the older rivals will come in a couple of weeks time in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes but it would seem that the 3 year old challenge will once again be depleted. Even Aidan O’Brien has only entered one his, Imperial Monarch, preferring to challenge for race honours with his five year old, St Nicholas Abbey, who is the current 9/4 antepost favourite, marginally ahead of Nathaniel on 5/2.

It is usually at this time of year that the best three year olds are emerging to prominence and laying down a challenge to older horses but that looks set to be distinctly lacking in 2012, especially with Camelot set to be rested until the St Leger in September and a tilt at the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe still in doubt, as such, the next three year old in the Arc betting after 5/2 favourite, Camelot, is the French trained Valyra who is a 16/1 shot and together with fellow French runner, Beauty Parlour, they are the only three year olds in the top ten in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe market and considering that three year olds have won eight of the last nine renewals of Europe's richest race, it is quite alarming that so few are entering calculations for this year's race which takes place on Sunday October 7th.