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Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends

The Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup takes place on Friday, 16th March and is highlight of the Festival for many. The fourth day is generally sold out in anticipation of a great spectacle and the race rarely fails to deliver. Paul Nicholls who has won 3 of the last 5 renewals and Kauto Star will be looking to win the race for a third time but will have last year’s winner, Long Run, to contend with.

Kauto Star won in 2007 & 2009

Kauto Star

Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
6yo: 1-0-3
7yo: 4-2-21
8yo: 2-6-45
9yo: 3-6-33
10yo: 0-3-30
11yo: 0-3-13
12yo+: 0-0-5

Horses aged 6 to 9 (10-14-102) have won the last 10 runnings.
Horses aged 10+ (0-6-48) have gained no wins and 6 places in the last 10 runnings from just under a third of the total runners. The 6 placed finishers aged 10+ had were either former Gold Cup winners or had won the previous season’s Aintree Grand National.

Irish Bred: 7-13-88
French Bred: 3-6-42
British Bred: 0-1-17
German Bred: 0-0-2
American Bred 0-0-1

Irish and French bred horses have dominated, winning the last 10, though they have represented almost 87% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
9 of 10 winners had finished in the first 2 last time out
10 of 10 winners had run in 2 to 5 chases that season
9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 162+ on last completed start
9 of 10 winners had run in 6 to 11 chases in their career (Kauto Star winning it a second time was an exception)
8 of 10 winners were second or third season chasers (both exceptions had won the race before)
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+ (2 exceptions had each finished runner-up in the Lexus and King George on their only previous try at 3M+)
10 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 chase
9 of 10 winners had won a grade 1 or 2 chase that season (exception Imperial Commander beaten a short head in Betfair Chase)
5 of 5 second season chaser winners had won a grade 1 novice chase

Previous Cheltenham Festival Form
Returning Gold Cup winner (Long Run): 01122FP (2-2-7)
RSA Chase winner (Bostons Angel): 1P195 (2-0-5)
Ryanair Chase winner (Albertas Run): 1 (1-0-1)
3 of 10 winners ran in the previous Gold Cup, finishing 112
2 of 10 winners ran in the RSA Chase, finishing 13
2 of 10 winners ran in the Arkle, finishing 27
9 of 10 winners ran in a grade 1 chase at the previous Festival (exception was Best Mate in 2002, there was no 2001 Festival).
9 of 10 winners had previously finished in first 3 at the Festival (Kauto Star who fell when favourite in the Queen Mother was only exception)

Other races
King George winner (Kauto Star): 011121F1 (5-1-7)
Lexus Chase winner (Synchronised): 9F100137 (2-1-8)
AON Chase winner: (No Race 2011) 04118 (2-0-5)
JN Wine Champion Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 9P013 (1-1-5)
Betfair Chase winner (Kauto Star): 012PFP (1-1-6)
Hennessy Gold Cup winner (Carruthers): 576182 (1-1-6)
Ryanair Novice Chase winner (Captain Chris): 1 (1-0-1)
Haldon Gold Cup winner (Medermit): 16 (1-0-2)
Steel Plate And Sections Novices’ Chase winner (Time For Rupert): 1P (1-0-2)
Old Roan Chase winner (Albertas Run): 10 (1-0-2)
Rehearsal Chase winner (Hey Big Spender): 828 (0-1-3)
Previous season’s Ryman Novice Chase winner (Time For Rupert): 290 (0-1-3)
Previous season Fort Leney Novice Chase winner (Bostons Angel): F37 (0-1-3)
Previous season’s Drinmore Chase winner (Jessies Dream): F37 (0-1-3)
Previous season’s PJ Moriarty Chase winner (Bostons Angel): F3F5 (0-1-4)
Cotswold Chase winner (Midnight Chase): 55268 (0-1-5)
Growise Champion Novice Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 0P (0-0-2)
Mildmay Novice Chase winner (Quito De La Roque): 5P (0-0-2)
Previous Towton Novice Chase winner (Wayward Prince): 60P (0-0-3)
Charlie Hall Chase winner (Weird Al): F050 (0-0-4)
Irish Hennessy Gold Cup winner (): 0F4004P (0-0-7)
7 of 10 winners ran in the King George, finishing 2111151
3 of 10 winners ran in the Lexus Chase, finishing 121
10 of 10 winners ran in Lexus or King George (9 of 10 were 1st or 2nd)
3 of 10 winners ran in the Betfair Chase, finishing 1U2
2 of 10 winners ran in the Aon Chase, finishing 11
2 of 10 winners ran in the JNWine Champion Chase, finishing 21
2 of 10 winners ran in the John Durkan Memorial, finishing 15

Paul Nicholls (3-7-27) has trained 3 of the last 5 winners of this and seen over a third of his runners make the places since 2002.
Mouse Morris (1-0-3), Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-0-5) and Nicky Henderson (1-0-6) are the only other trainers with entrants to have saddled the winner in past 10 years.
Jonjo O’Neill (0-2-6) has trained 2 placed finishers from 6 runners since 2002.
The Pipe Stable (0-0-13) and Phillip Hobbs (0-0-4) have each failed to saddle a runner that made the frame in the past 10 runnings from 17 collective runners.
Irish trained runners (2-5-28) won the race 2005 and filled the first 3 positions in 2006 but have struggled more recently, failing to fill a place in any of the last 5 years (they were not represented in 2009).

10 of 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
The longest priced winner since 2000 has been 15/2.
Favourites (6-2-10) have taken 6 of the last 10 giving a level stakes profit of 8.85.

Based on the trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 to 9
• Irish or French bred
• Had 6 to 11 career chase start (2 to 5 this season)
• Second or third season chaser (or previous winner)
• Finished in the first 2 last time and posted RPR of 162+
• Won over 3M+
• Won a grade 1 chase (and won a grade 1 or 2 chase this season)
• Finished in first 3 in a grade 1 chase at 2011 Festival
• Finished 1st or 2nd in either the Lexus or King George this season
• From first 3 in the betting (favourite does especially well)
• Trained in Britain (especially by Paul Nicholls)

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