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Tanya's Blog - 5th May 2011

If money talked yesterday, it seemed to be shouting today. I know I tipped Dirar, who never got in a blow, but wasn’t it wonderful to see Overturn lead all the way. The betting ring at Chester is very weak in comparison to most. A better explanation may be that because bets of three and four figures are very rare it is much easier to shorten up a horse. So the price changes will be very volatile. It would not have taken much to make Red Cadeaux favourite for the Chester Cup as the majority of the bookmakers on course hadn’t laid him or any other of the runners as they haven’t got betting offices. The support for Overturn on the course wasn’t the same as it was off the course.

On to the first race today and at the time of writing Captain Bertie is already odds-on on the exchanges. Barry Hills at Chester and stall one how can you oppose? Well I am, stupidly perhaps, but I am going for CROWN COUNSEL who hasn’t run badly in all five races this season and has Frankie Dettori aboard. One thing that does confuse me is the participation of Weapon Of Choice, reading the explanation for his poor run at Epsom last time it says he wasn’t suited by the Good (Good to Firm in places) ground – so what is he doing on Good to Firm at Chester? If he does win, fill your boots on Slumber in the Chester Vase.

AWAIT THE DAWN looks in a different league to his rivals in the Huxley Stakes. However Forte Dei Marmi is held in high regard and you can always forgive one bad run. Still if Luca Cumani’s runner 7-2 in the paper is now 7-1 at the time of writing on Betfair he is one to oppose.

In the Chester Vase, Slumber has had the benefit of a spin and a win round Chester, he is trained by Barry Hills yet he is not favourite at this point. That goes to NATHANIAL who was on beaten ½ length by Frankel on racecourse debut, yes you read that right 1/2 length, which means Treasure Beach has more than ten lengths to make up on him. John Gosden and William Buick are a formidable pair round Chester and they will probably win the 4.05 as well with BEACHFIRE.

My sneaky outsider for the day which I am putting in the tipping competition will be MARJURY DAW, trainer is in good form and at around 16-1 she is too big a price.

POINTERS

Brian Ellison has had three winners from his last four runners

Signposts page 28 in today’s Racing Post flag up the fact that DominicElsworth is a rider to follow at Wetherby, he has had four winners from his last seven rides

William Buick and John Gosden have teamed up for four winners from their last seven runners

CHESTER 1:45
Belle Royale has won two of her four races at Chester

HUXLEY STAKES CHESTER 2:20
6 of the last 10 favourites have won

9 of the last 10 winners have been aged four or five

Aidan O’Brien has had seven winners from his last 21 Chester runners and shows a level stake profit of £29.64

Only one of the last five winners had won on their previous start

CHESTER VASE CHESTER 2.55

8 of the last 12 winners drawn 1 or 2

5 of the last 10 winners drawn 1

Clive Brittain has won the race twice from his last four runners

John Gosden has had a second and two thirds from his last three Chester Vase runners

Three of the last five favourites have won