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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - 16th June 2011

Punters 1, bookmakers 1, with the layers scoring a spectacular equalizer yesterday, So You Think’s defeat was a massive result on all betting platforms for bookmakers and readdressed the balance after Tuesday’s massacre in favour of the punters.

With the continued rainfall I have left posting my thoughts until the last possible moment, keeping an eye on the non-runners plus any significant market moves due to the changing ground.

It will be intriguing to see if the obvious draw bias (high numbers) to the stand side is still apparent. As we start with a 16 runner race over five furlongs, the Norfolk Stakes, and I really fancy PYMAN’S THEORY drawn 3. A winner at Sandown after a heavy downpour he represents Tom Dascombe who trained the last winner yesterday. Silverheels is a huge danger from stall 20 and I have put the pair in the placepot and a forecast.

Scrabbling through past form I discovered that LOOK AT ME appreciates cut underfoot and he could be value especially with Ryan Moore on board in the Ribblesdale. The Gold Cup sits in the too hard to find a clue category. Just as an interest bet I’ve done Motrice but with no confidence.

Back to the draw for the Britannia Stakes and I’m taking a chance with CRUISER from stall 25, he ran a blinder behind Sagramor at Haydock without getting the recognition. He’ll be a massive price and he and Sagramor look the two against the field.

Alkimos was going to be my bet of the meeting until the rain came this morning, and now I am swaying towards mudlark LOVING SPIRIT in the 5.00 with a saver on Luca Cumani’s charge.

Finally THE BELLS O PEOVER seems huge value at over 25-1 for Mark Johnston, he has run well all season and is sure to gain a place fingers crossed for at least 16 to stand their ground.

 

POINTERS

Four of the last five winners of the Norfolk Stakes won on their previous start

The last ten winners of the Norfolk Stakes came within the first six in the betting

Saeed Bin Suroor has had three winners from his last six runners in the Ribblesdale Stakes

The last five winners of the Ribblesdale all finished in the first three on their last start

Aidan O’Brien’s last eight runners in the Ribblesdale have all been beaten

Geordieland is running in his fourth Ascot Gold Cup having been placed three times

Richard Hannon and Mark Johnston have had over 20 runners in the Britannia Stakes over the last ten years and not had a winner

The favourite has only won the Britannia Stakes twice in the last ten years, but in the remaining eight years it has struggled to reach the frame

 

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