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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - 7th January 2012

A fresh and breezy morning greeted me on arrival at Sandown Racecourse at 6.30am. I love being out and about on the courses annoying the Clerks, this time it was Andrew Cooper’s turn. The leaf blowers were out in force and I was a bit worried that they would drown out any of my interviews. Luckily though they disappeared a few minutes before going to air. Andrew Cooper is always great fun and gave a really descriptive report on his ground. Many on course like my hat, Alastair Down says I look like an elf from the Lord Of The Rings, now describing me as an elf wouldn’t be far wrong, however do elves find winners?

John McCririck, Alastair and Alice are currently with me in the media centre discussing the possibilities of giving an injection of excitement to the Saturdays over the next few weeks – as we know the Festival protagonists in the main go into hiding.

Meanwhile I scan the exchanges and betting website to watch for the movers. One being Ciceron who Boylesports had advertised at 20-1 and others were 16-1 and 14-1, last night the biggest I saw on the exchanges was 11-1. The horse had a massive write up in the Weekender by Paul Kealy doubled up by the being the Pricewise pick it will be interesting to see what price he finishes! Then of course he has to win and the form I’m in and I have tipped him, he’ll do well to get out of the paddock!

Other backed horses include Hold On Julio and Master Of The Hall in the same race and as my guest Geoff Banks mentioned this morning backing them both at 7-2 is the equivalent of backing a 5-4 shot. Personally I think there is a big run in Neptune Collonges today. He won the Argento Chase last year and can lead all the way again carrying top weight in this competitive handicap.

No Loose Change has a strong line of form when only ½ length behind Ballyrock last time, that has been franked when Ballyrock gave King Fingal a scare last week.

Tanks For That received some support during the Morning Line and even wrestled favouritism off Rileyev, Sandown’s 2.05 is going to be a great spectacle and I wouldn’t put Darcey’s Dancer out of the contest, even though I do think Rileyev will win.

Main race of the day is the 32Red Hurdle, Prospect Wells as Geoff Banks said ought to be evens if not odds-on. Yet bookmakers in their battle to attract your custom are offering silly prices, the sponsors put up 2-1, Coral 15-8 and a few 7-4. Will we be ruing the fact we didn’t weigh in rather than save the funds for the sales or an interest in the FA CUP or NFL playoffs, I fear just around 2.40 we’ll find out. Three of the runners are in the betting for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle which will no doubt get a shake up as soon as the line is crossed.

Big night for me tonight, I always dread this time of the year, my whole NFL season rests on a knife edge and the mood the New Orleans Saints are in, they've been clinical and superb up to now, but tonight there is no comeback or failsafe, tonight they have to mute the roar of the Detroit Lions otherwise NFL is over for me until next September.

 

POINTERS

Nicky Henderson has had six winners from his last 14 runners since the start of 2012

Ian Williams has had six winners from his last 15 runners Ruby Walsh has ridden 11 winners from his last 26 chase rides at Sandown – 42%

Barry Geraghty has ridden 10 winners from his last 27 hurdle rides at Sandown – 37%

The last seven winners of Sandown’s 3.45 were aged 7 or younger

Paul Nicholls has had 19 winners from his last 60 chase runners at Wincanton

Aidan Coleman has ridden Rileyev 17 times to five wins, two seconds and four thirds

Five of the last ten favourites have won Sandown’s 1.35

Seven of the last ten winners of the Tolworth were favourite or second favourite last time out

From the last eleven favourites to run in the 32Red Hurdle (Tolworth) five have won, three have been placed

Nine of the last ten winners of the Tolworth were 5-1 or less

The last ten winners of the Tolworth had run 43 days before or less

All of the last ten winners of the Tolworth finished either first or second on their last start

Paul Nicholls has won three of the last four Tolworth Hurdles

Eight of the last ten winners of Sandown’s 2.05 were 11-2 or shorter

It is best to look for a horse aged eight or nine in Sandown’s 2.05 as they have won eight of the last ten runnings

The last six favourites have been beaten in the 3.10 and 3.45 at Sandown Park

 

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