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Tanya's Blog - Wednesday 18th April 2012

A huge lull after such a great start to the flat at Doncaster’s Lincoln meeting, ends today with the first of the two day Craven meeting at Doncaster and then the Classic trials at Newbury at the weekend. The Ten to follow forms came through the letterbox yesterday morning but I’m not even going to broach the list until after Newbury.

Time to see how the Rowley Mile course is running and how this year’s Classic crop take the undulations to see if there are any eye catchers. At the time of writing those receiving support on the exchanges were Flaxen Flare in the 1.50, this gelding already boasts race experience, placing twice last season. Then Jeremy Noseda’s Valbchek has been backed in the 3.00, he won at Lingfield at long odds-on and could well improve again. He has it all to do if Samitar has trained on as Mick Channon’s horse never finished out of the first three in six starts and she twice finished in close proximity of Lyric Of Light in Group company.

Es Que Love obliged for the blog at Pontefract eight days ago and he goes again in the last race at Newmarket. I grant you it will be harder to dominate over the vast expanse that is the Rowley Mile course but he is in form and can just land one more success before the pack and the handicapper close in.

What a fun packed day for , not only is there the Craven meeting but Cheltenham, Beverley and Kempton. Aerial is a drifter in the betting losing favouritism at the moment. Could it be victory for Divers? I think I’ll give the tricky contest a big swerve as intuition tells me the real Woolcombe Folly may step into the winner’s enclosure. I did not money for Water Garden in the 4.20. Nothing but solid performances this season, his fourth to Aintree winner is the one which is inspiring the support. He met with trouble in running and was only beaten by ten lengths.

Check out signposts, page 22 in today’s Racing Post and you’ll find that Joe Fanning is 3 from 3 aboard Doc Hay and the pair go in Beverley’s 3.20, he could well start the season with a win. I rate his big danger as Marvellous Value.

My colleague Nick Lightfoot has just received his running number for the London Marathon on Sunday, he can’t believe it has come round so quick despite all his hard training, there’s a bit of apprehension. However if success was down to enthusiasm then he’d win.

Forecast for Sunday’s runners is cool with showers, not ideal, but not a disaster. I’m tempted to be a spectator on Sunday but only if I meet up with other office colleagues as chances of actually spotting Nick are slim if not none. At least the worst case scenario is I can track him on the internet.

100 days to the Olympics, are you getting excited? As yet, me neither. I wait with trepidation to see how it effects movement round the capital.

Tips

3.00 Newmarket - Samitar
3.20 Beverley - Doc Hay
4.20 Cheltenham - Water Garden
5.55 Newmarket - Es Que Love

Pointers

Barry Hills won Newmarket’s 1.50 four times in the last seven years so it might be worth paying Qannaas and Moss Hill closer inspection

Mickael Barzalona has a 50% strike rate on three-year-olds at Newmarket

Mahmood Al Zarooni has a 31% strike rate at Newmarket

Favourites have a 70% strike rate in Newmarket’s 2.25

Ed Dunlop has had four winners from his last ten runners

Bill Turner has had five winners and two seconds from his last 12 runners

Since Saturday Nicky Henderson has had seven winners, three seconds and two thirds from his last 17 runners

Harry Derham has ridden five winners from his last ten

Six of the last ten favourites have won Cheltenham’s 2.00

Battlecry has been beaten on all five attempts at Cheltenham

Emma Lavelle has had four winners from her last 8 runners

Raslan is 0 from 11 at Cheltenham