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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - Wednesday 16th May 2012

From the picturesque intimacy of Chester, to the vast glory of York and it’s magnificent grandstand. When in Yorkshire, I’m always at peace with the world. Today the sun is out, with a blue sky covered only by flecks of clouds, which hopefully won’t gather too much momentum and spoil the ambience.

The warmth of summer is slowly arriving and barring a few spots of predicted rain tomorrow, could it be that ‘good’ will soon be dominating the going descriptions once more!

The delay to the blog was caused by an early programme meeting this morning at 9.30am, a 1pm on air time and plenty to film before we go on air and we need every chance to get it all done. And for me to get a cappuccino from the wonderful coffee outlet strategically positioned just outside the press room.

I go with Pricewise today with Baby Strange in the 2.00pm. However in the Musidora Stakes I’m in two minds what to do. The Fugue was beaten far enough in the Qipco 1000 Guineas and Aidan O’Brien’s record in the race recently isn’t the best so I would be tempted to oppose them both rather than picking a single winner. Oh to be a bookmaker once more in the Knavesmire betting ring!

There is a contrasting turnover level between Chester last week and York this week; the bookmakers on course are stronger and at times have a tendency to go bigger than the exchanges - they have opinions and aren’t afraid to test them. The weather should bring the crowds out and the quality races should lure the punters to the ring. Can’t wait to get out there!

In the Duke Of York Stakes, Hoof It has supposedly done an exceptional piece of work and Lee Westwood, his part-owner, is due on course. He finished tied-61st at Sawgrass and didn’t do too badly at the fearsome island hole, the 17th. He bogeyed it on rounds one and two and hit par in rounds three and four. However, he could be fixed on the Ryder Cup this year as well as trying to gain victory in a major.

Hoof It has never been beaten in May and I respect his ability, he wasn’t far away from landing the Betfred Sprint Cup last September and I’ll be having a little saver on him to try and get back my stake on the French challenger Restidargent. She has definite class, she was fourth to Mashoora over seven furlongs. Also I can’t work out why Elnawin is so big and drifting further out on the exchanges, I have to invest a little on him each-way.

So to confirm I’m laying Twirl and The Fugue, backing Baby Strange, Restidargent and having a small each-way on Elnawin. Due to his form over hurdles I’m backing Eagle Rock, too.

Today's selections:

2.00 York: Baby Strange

3.00 York: Restiargent

3.35 York: Eagle Rock

 

Tanya's Pointers

1.30 York:
Seven of the last ten winners were aged four
Of the last ten winners only one had won on their previous start
Nine of the last ten winners came from the first four in the betting
The last five winners were all trained in Newmarket
Frankie Dettori and Saeed Bin Suroor have won the race in 2007, 2008 and 2009

2.00 York:
Eight of the last ten winners came from the first four in the betting
Nine of the last ten winners had the benefit of at least one run that season prior to his/her victory at York, four of which had won
Philip Makin has ridden York Glory six times winning twice and finishing second three times.

2.30 York: Musidora Stakes
Eight of the last ten winners were trained in Newmarket
Only one of the last ten winners were priced bigger than 5-1
Aidan O’Brien’s last five runners in the race all beaten their odds were
11-2, 2-1F, 5-2, 8-15F, 11-10F

3.00 York: Duke of York Stakes
It is 22 years since a horse won from a double figure stall
Only three horses older than 5 have won the race in the last 20 years
Seven of the last ten winners had either run in the Abernant Stakes at Newmarket (Mayson, Sirius Prospect, Tiddliwinks) or the previous season’s Sprint Cup at Haydock Park (Hoof It, Society Rock, Doncaster Rover, Tiddliwinks)
Hoof It has won all four of his races in May and his York record is three wins from seven races.

 

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