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Tanya's Blog - Thursday 17th May 2012

So much for the sunshine that was short lived at York. I’m in the press room now and all I can see out of the window is grey clouds, light drizzle and groundsmen filling in the divots. The temperature has dropped a few degrees as well. Lots of happy dogs are getting their morning walks across the Knavesmire oblivious to the fact that only a few hours later Investec Derby protagonists will be walking from the stables to be saddled up in the Betfred Dante.

Bonfire is favourite. The sport desperately needs a horse worthy enough to take on Camelot in the Derby, if it’s not Bonfire, who can it be? I have a tendency to think it is going to be Ektihaam or even Ptolemaic. Many believe the latter was flattered by his Qipco 2000 Guineas draw but I think he will relish this step up in trip.

The action at York starts at 1.30, with the significant booking of Ryan Moore on Swiss Franc. He started his campaign well at Ascot just six days ago and can come on for the run. Great to see Secret Witness try to win two days on the bounce.

Navajo Chief loves York and his fourth to Penitent reads very well now David O’Meara’s runner has gone on to Group Two glory at Sandown. He was squeezed out a little at Doncaster in the closing stages and could have finished much closer.

Other fancies include Caledonia Lady in the 3.35.

Today's selections:

2.30 York: Ptolemaic (each-way)

3.00 York: Navajo Chief

3.35 York: Caledonia Lady

Tanya's Pointers

Nicky Henderson has had six winners from his last 12 runners
Thirteen of the last 14 Donald McCain’s runners have finished in the first three, including four winners

2.00pm York:
Seven of the last ten winners have been aged four, the other three aged five
Six of the last nine favourites have won
Nine of the last ten winners have come from the first two in the betting
Nine of the last ten winners have been trained in Newmarket
Seven of the last ten winners were making their seasonal debut
Jamie Spencer has never finished out of the first three on his five rides aboard Set To Music

2.30pm York – Dante Stakes:
Seven of the last ten had won on their most recent start
Aidan O’Brien has won the Dante four times, three of those in the last six years
Eighteen of the last 20 had finished first or second on their last start

3pm York:
Common Touch has won three of his four races at York
Eight of the last nine winners came from the first three in the betting
The last nine winners were single figure starting prices
Seven of the last nine winners were aged four or five