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Tanya's Blog - Saturday 22nd September 2012

What an incredibly busy week for Richard Hughes. He will have 48 rides since Monday, riding at nine venues and up until yesterday he has had 42 rides, eight wins, six seconds and six thirds. A phenomenal effort.

Last night he was at Wolverhampton and this morning he was great value on the Morning Line from Newbury. Some believe he has an unassailable lead in the Jockeys’ Championship and Paddy Power have already paid out on him. If he does win it is a just reward for all the hard graft he has put in - remember he had incurred a lengthy ban for a stint in India at the start of the season.

I wonder what will happen next season, on many fronts? A fit Ryan Moore could regain his crown or will Hughes double up? Is there a chance for Paul Hanagan or Silvestre De Sousa to gain some momentum?

Next Saturday Frankel is due to gallop before racing at Newmarket on Cambridgeshire Day, great for all those attending but what will happen next season without him?

There will be a huge void in equine personalities for next year’s flat season. Snow Fairy’s encore together with Danedream’s defence has injected a huge boost into the Arc. Camelot could possibly run but what will happen in 12 month’s time?

Where are our star stayers coming from? Who are our star sprinters? I only ask as the second and fifth in the Group 1 July Cup run in the Ayr Gold Cup this afternoon and if they are defeated where will we be?

I hope they finish in the first three as my main fancy in the race is The Cheka, and I’m having a small reverse forecast with Captain Ramius. As for the crowdpleaser Hawkeyethenoo, he hasn’t won in six starts on soft or heavy and his two appearances in this race haven’t been great.

As the last few weeks play out another memorable flat season fingers crossed a few future champions burst through to be prominent personalities for next year but don’t bet on it.

Back to Ayr today, check out a few key non-runners but in the Silver Cup I was torn between Gatepost and Valery Borzov but finally went with the former. In the Bronze Cup Cheveton is my immediate thought.

In the Betfred Cesarewitch Trial, Newmarket’s 3.55, is it finally time for Bernie The Bolt. It’s a race he won three years ago, time for history to repeat itself.

While everyone grafts I’ll be enjoying the action of the NFL and T20. What a line-up in Sri Lanka with the home team hosting South Africa. I’m still trying to get my head round watching the Proteas when only a couple of weeks ago I could virtually reach out and touch them in England! That match is followed by Australia v West Indies, with the latter the possible winners.

As for the NFL, San Francisco should enjoy their visit to Minnesota. The Vikings will need many points on the handicap as the 49ers have looked awesome so far. After last week’s exploits against Washington I’m going to have a real punt on St Louis against Chicago. They are 11-4 to win the match and in some places +9 on the handicap so the Rams appear value. However they can’t afford to start as they did last week, so I’m putting my faith in coach Jeff Fisher to reduce the mistakes.

Today's Selection:

2.20 Ayr Gatepost (each-way)

3.30 Ayr The Cheka (Captain Ramius/The Cheka rev forecast)

3.55 Newmarket Bernie The Bolt

Tanya's Pointers

Ayr Gold Cup:
David Nicholls has won six of the last twelve Ayr Gold Cups
Eight of the last ten winners of the Ayr Gold Cup finished no better than third on their previous start
In the last twenty years only one winner older than six
Only one winning favourite of the Ayr Gold Cup in the last 30 years
The last Scottish-trained winner was Roman Warrior back in 1975
Hawkeyethenoo hasn’t won in six races on ground soft or worse
Regal Parade hasn’t won since August 2010 which is 22 career starts, but at least in that time he has finished second five times and third four times
There has been no Irish-trained winner of the Ayr Gold Cup

Ayr Silver Cup:
Only one of the last ten Ayr Silver Cup winners has been aged older than five
Seven of the last ten winners of the Ayr Silver Cup finished in the first three last time out

Newbury:
Nine of the last ten favourties of the Dubai Duty Free Handicap Newbury’s 3.10 have been beaten and the average starting price of the winner is just over 12-1
Luca Cumani has won Newbury’s 3.10 four times in the last eight years
Eight of the last ten winners of Newbury’s 3.10 were drawn 8 or over

Newmarket:
Nanton has not won in seven appearances at Newmarket
Ian Williams last 20 Newmarket runners have all been beaten