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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - Saturday 17th November

After Friday’s results at Cheltenham I’m sure there will be many bookmakers’ pitches with ‘For Sale’ signs attached to them. After taking on Fingal Bay with just reward the remainder of the day was downhill, especially when Dodging Bullets provided Ruby Walsh and Paul Nicholls with a double. They couldn’t lay Tominator and remained stuck as had they adjusted prices accordingly they would have been left betting overbroke.

River Maigue, who was second, was backed in the morning but not on course and Court Minstrel, who was third, was popular on course and by getting hampered at crucial points left a big taste of ‘if only’ to all his supporters. By the time the Cross Country event came along bookmakers were already running on empty. I’m sure many have gone home to replenish the monetary stock.

Dynaste was awesome, as Fingal Bay ought to prove throughout the season a far superior hurdler to all his rivals. Whether he would take the transition to the bigger obstacles was the question but he did so in no uncertain terms and was duly quoted at 6-1 for the RSA Chase.

I am sat in the press room typing away in the aftermath of a full on day and the temperature has dropped considerably. It’s so cold I can hardly feel my fingers to type! It’s hard to concentrate with the clear-up operation outside - there are so many losing tickets strewn across the betting ring that they’ll need more than the odd blower that they are using now. Although noisy, they are not making much headway.

If there is one pick I love all weekend it is Bradley in Cheltenham’s 1.55.  I thought he ran a corker at the last meeting in October behind Balthazar King. Some rain won’t be too much of an inconvenience and the trainer’s Silver Roque ran well on Friday.

In the BetVictor Gold Cup itself I think Grands Crus will win and easily, but the price is such that I want to hunt around for some each-way prices. I’ve found Kerry National runner-up Questions Answered, who is ridden by the in form Aidan Coleman and Forpadydeplasterer, who only a couple of runs ago finished second to Sizing Europe.  He ought to be in the shake-up.

Roll on Paddy Power Gold Cup day. Tom Scudamore is due to be guest on the Morning Line with Anthony Knott on the track with me. The atmosphere is sure to build nicely and I can’t wait to hear that roar from the crowd. Let’s hope the rain stays away when the action starts.

Today's Tips:

1.55 Cheltenham Bradley (6/1 bet365)

2.35 Cheltenham Forpadytheplasterer (20/1 bet365) & Questions Answered (50/1 bet365) (both each-way)

 

Tanya's pointers:

Paddy Power Gold Cup:

From 14 runs at Cheltenham Poquelin has won five times and finished second three times.

Since 1980 the only Irish winners of the Paddy Power Gold Cup are Bright Highway and Tranquil Sea

Tony McCoy has won four Paddy Power Gold Cups from his last thirteen rides in the race

Eight of the last nine winners of the Paddy Power were aged six or seven.

Paul Nicholls has yet to win the Paddy Power Gold Cup

JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial:

The last four out of eight favourites have won Cheltenham’s 12.45

Paul Nicholls has had three winners from his last five runners of Cheltenham’s 12.45

Rewards4Racing Novices Chase

Five of the last ten favourites have won Cheltenham’s 1.20

Nigel Twiston-Davies has won Cheltenham’s 1.20 three times in the last eight years

Henrietta Knight Handicap Chase

Seven of the last ten winners carried less than 11-0 to victory in Cheltenham’s 1.55

All of the last ten winners of Cheltenham’s 1.55 were priced at 9-1 or less

Ultima Business Solutions Handicap Hurdle:

Nine of the last ten winners of Cheltenham’s 3.05 came from the first four in the betting

Only one winner has managed to carry more than 10-13 to victory in the last ten years in Cheltenham’s 3.05

All ten winners have been priced 10-1 or less in Cheltenham’s 3.05

Nine of the last ten winners were aged 5, 6 or 7 in Cheltenham’s 3.05

Centaur Novices Handicap Hurdle:

Five of the last nine winners of Cheltenham’s 3.40 were favourites

Nine of the last ten winners of Cheltenham’s 3.40 were no older than five

 

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