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Tanya's Blog - Monday 24th December

With Dynaste, Grands Crus, Junior and Katkeau to name but four running on Boxing Day I would love to catch sight of David Pipe’s letter to Santa! What a quartet, what a countdown to Kempton!  Rain please give us some respite.

In the lower press room at Ascot on Saturday there was a debate about the quality of Christmas Day viewing. The majority were declaring how poor the programmes and films were. I chimed in with, however, the NFL and India v Pakistan followed by Australia v Sri Lanka so I couldn’t see the problem. Barracked back into silence, quite unfairly I feel, the debate continued without me. 

I’m pleased to say that while typing this it is one of my last days in the Teddington office. The sun is shining, which means with Kempton just a stone’s throw away it is enjoying and basking in the chance to dry to some extent. 

I still haven’t decided on my plan of action for 2013. Now no longer office-bound through the week I will have my freedom back. It is time to get fitted for a new analytical form anorak, as I can concentrate on the stats and racing more. There’s the potential to return to being a more frequent racegoer or I could just sit in a new office with a bank of screens watching all my favourite sports, that would be heaven.

There’s time enough to think about that over the next few weeks. For now the task at hand is cracking Kempton. The real hard workers for Channel 4 are preparing at the course before Christmas. I’ve decided mot to get under their feet and complain about the lack of Wi-Fi. Providing David Pipe gives the green light to Grands Crus, and there are no mishaps to the remainder, then ten will line up in the William Hill King George VI Chase at 3.10 on Wednesday. 

Long Run ought to win as his record is awesome. He's never been out of the first three in all his 23 career races. He has won three of his eight Grade 1s in Britain, he has a King George and a Gold Cup on his CV and quite rightly he is favourite. 

Connections shouldn’t be worried about any of his rivals with the one exception, being Grands Crus.  On the day Long Run won his King George, Grands Crus won the Feltham over the same course and distance in a much, much faster time.  He could quite simply lead all the way. 

At this early stage and with all the Boxing Day decs through and taking into account the inspections, my nap is in Kempton’s 3.45. Katkeau did have an entry in the Ladbroke Hurdle and one at Haydock on Saturday, which he obviously didn’t fulfil yet he runs on Wednesday. He was travelling like the winner at Haydock on his first start in this country until making a shocking error three out. He may be worth the wait.

I could go into further detail about the multiple meetings coming up but so much can happen. over the newt few days So I take this opportunity to wish you a Merry Christmas and I’ll update the blog on Boxing Day Morning after the Morning Line.

Tanya's pointers:

King George VI Chase:

Seven of the last ten favourites have won the King George VI Chase

Captain Chris has won three of his four races at Kempton

Four victories and a second mean that Riverside Theatre has never finished out of the first two at Kempton

Richard Johnson has ridden Captain Chris ten times to five wins and four seconds

Fifteen of the last 19 winners of the King George had won on their previous start

Over the past 20 years six horses have won the King George more than once

Paul Nicholls has won the King George six times

Christmas Hurdle:

Eight of the last ten Christmas Hurdle winners came from the first three in the betting

Six of the last ten winners of the Christmas Hurdle had run no worse than third in the Fighting Fifth that season at Newcastle

Seven of the last ten winners of the Christmas Hurdle was aged five or six

Feltham Chase:

In the last ten years there has been only one winner with a starting price bigger than 6-1 in the Feltham – Ungaro 14-1 in 2006

Nicky Henderson has had five winners from his last 11 runners in the Feltham Chase

Six of the last eight favourites have won the Feltham Chase

Eight of the last ten Feltham Chase winners had won on their previous start

Eight of the last ten Christmas Hurdle winners won on their previous start

Others:

Since Oscar Whisky won at Cheltenham on Saturday 15 December Nicky Henderson’s last ten hurdlers have all been beaten including four favourites

Ruby Walsh has had six winners from his last 12 rides in Britain, but not including Thurles on 23 December he has had ten winners from his last 15 rides in Britain and Ireland

Barry Geraghty has had 12 winners from his last 31 rides at Kempton

Nicky Henderson has won Kempton’s 1.25 three times in the last six years