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Tanya Stevenson

Tanya's Blog - Wednesday 19th June 2013

Cumani runner looks a huge price to scalp big two

My feet are recovering in a bowl of iced water as I type this; high heels do not, and never will, agree with me. Thankfully the pain and swelling is beginning to subside, similar to that which I felt when Jack Dexter just failed to get third in the King’s Stand Stakes at a huge price. Now everybody knows how good a sprinter he is!

What a first day! The Queen Anne is still a blur as bookmaker eyes like mine were firmly focused on the price of Animal Kingdom. My sympathy goes out to all those who backed Declaration Of War in the Lockinge, I hope you followed up. Gregorian is another to keep an eye on, he is improving.

The King’s Stand was a triumph for the Power family. Their enthusiasm is infectious and Sole Power made amends for his Temple Stakes run at Haydock. He is some sprinter when you scan through his achievements. One of the great hindsight questions will be how an earth did he start 100-1 for the Nunthorpe?

Then the race of the year so far for me was the St James’s Palace Stakes, despite bumping and boring in the latter stages Dawn Approach still had the determination to win. Did we see the Coral-Eclipse winner? If not Dawn Approach, as he may choose to bypass Sandown then how about Mars? He is due for a change of luck. He was a badly-hampered sixth in the Derby and now hampered at Royal Ascot, yet still ran on for third.

War Command was breathtaking in the Coventry Stakes; he made his rivals seem pedestrian, and I thought Thunder Strike, Championship and Stubbs were Group performers. They might still be and it is a matter that War Command could prove to be exceptional. The 10-1 on offer for next year’s Qipco 2,000 Guineas says others may have those very thoughts, also.

Congratulations to Olly Stevens for his first of many Royal Ascot winners when sending out Extortionist for the lucky last.

As for the betting ring, there were only 12 bookmakers on the rails when there was capacity for six more. One less betting line in Tattersalls than you’d expect, but to counteract that there are seven new betting areas opened. Even so, I thought there should have been more. Yet on-course business was not at its highest, not helped by the first two favourites being beaten.

My Guineas selection of Garswood seeks redemption over a furlong shorter on Wednesday in the Jersey Stakes. He coasted home in the European Free Handicap at Newmarket, flicking his ears when hitting the front. I would love to see that cheeky ear movement again but the reality is Aidan O’Brien is in phenomenal form so any of his runners have to be respected.

The French challenger Sarkiyla in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes is a massive price. Not as big as my first main pick, Afsare. He has a stern test but on his last run he was second in the Arlington Million to Little Mike, who went on to win at the Breeders’ Cup.

Prince Of Johanne is taken to win back-to-back Royal Hunt Cups as he is running into form at the right time. Heads up to the fact this may be Johnny Murtagh’s week and how about him riding and training a winner at the same Royal Ascot meeting; keep an eye on Sweet Lightning.

In the Queen Mary I’ve been sweet on Beldale Memory for a long time; when she won at York the queues to pick winnings probably reached Ascot, plus she was so impressive and I hoping she can convert it here.

 

Tanya’s tips:

3.45 Royal Ascot Afsare at 33-1 with Bet365

4.25 Royal Ascot Prince Of Johanne

5.00 Royal Ascot Beldale Memory at 4-1 with Paddy Power

 

Tanya’s pointers:

2.30 JERSEY STAKES

The last winning favourite was Mozart at 7-4 in 2001

Seven of the last 11 winners finished either first or second on their most recent start

Six of the last 11 winners had run in a Group One

Nine of the last ten winners had won over no further than the race’s distance of 7f

Nine of the last ten had run no more than three times in the current season prior to Ascot

A quirky stat is that the horse deriving from stall eight has finished second five times in the last 11 years

3.05 DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES

Seven of the nine winners had run no more than twice in a season

Seven of the nine winners had finished no worse than third on their prior start

Eight of the nine winners had won a Group race

Sir Michael Stoute has won the race three times

All the nine winners came from the first five in the betting

3.45 PRINCE OF WALES’S STAKES

Seven of the last 13 winners aged four

Six of the eight winners were overseas

The last nine winners came from the first three in the betting

Since this race was elevated to Group One in 2000 12 of the 13 winners had previously landed a Group One

Biggest priced winner since a Group One was 17-2

Since 1968 only two winners older than five

4.25 ROYAL HUNT CUP

Nine of the last ten winners raced no more than three times in the current season

Only two of the last ten winners were drawn in single figures

Only four winners since 1983 were aged above five

Since 1960 only one winner older than six (1969 Kamundu)

Since 1960 only four winning favourites

5.00 QUEEN MARY STAKES

Six of the last ten winners had previously run in at least Listed class

Nine of the last 12 winners came from the first five in the betting

Since 2000 all of the winners had finished no worse than second on their previous start

Since 2000 11 of the winners had won on their most recent start

Since 2000 nine of the winners had won on their racecourse debut

Since 2000 ten of the winners had raced no more than twice previously

5.35 SANDRINGHAM HANDICAP

Three winning favourites

Nine of the eleven winners finished no worse than fourth on their most recent start

Nine of the eleven winners came from the first five in the betting

Seven of the eleven winners had run in at least Listed class

All of the 11 winners had run no more than three times in their current campaign

 

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