Tanya's Blog - Thursday 22nd August 2013
Smarty Socks can lead my charge towards profit
Not a great start to the four days of York as I’ve done it large on two counts and both were in the Great Voltigeur. I committed the cardinal sin by trying to be a punter and a layer!
I backed Secret Number and laid Telescope. I didn’t see that coming. I thought the on-course layers would chase after Telescope, but instead only momentarily was 6-4 sighted in the betting ring.
In the Acomb Stakes bookmakers got off lightly. First Flight was friendless and had been ‘Billy no mates’ since late Tuesday evening, which percentage-wise left those on and off course in a quandary.
There was between 25%-33% of their calculations not being supported, so in part some of the reason The Grey Gatsby was contracting in price was out of protection because if you can’t lay the second favourite the sensible option is to shorten the market leader.
You could hear bones creaking as fingers were being crossed and even the bookmakers’ pitches started to lean as The Grey Gatsby started to close down on Treaty Of Paris, but for punters it wasn’t to be.
I thought Foundry was the eyecatcher of the Great Voltigeur and he still remains unexposed but I wouldn’t hurry to back Telescope in the Ladbrokes St Leger, not yet anyway.
Al Kazeem was beaten by the lightning fast ground and the inability to shake off Trading Leather from the home turn, which allowed Declaration Of War to pass them both. The Juddmonte International was a great race to watch and commiserations go out to supporters of Toronado. It was not his day - easy with hindsight - and I sense he left a lot at Goodwood.
The banter in the betting ring was great and I actually saw quite a few quarter the odds 1-2-3-4 in the 16+ runner handicaps - yes I nearly needed resuscitating!
On to Thursday and the need to recoup losses. It doesn’t start too easy again with the first but as my stats below show it is best not to divert too far from the front few in the betting.
I like Haikbidiac who ran a bold fourth in the Weatherbys Super Sprint.
What a great handicap the 3.05 at York is. Could David O’Meara do a Michael Dickinson and have the first five home! I love Smarty Socks’s tenacity, especially at York and surely it has to come right for him at his favourite course again at some point.
Tanya’s Thursday tips:
1.55 York: Haikbidiac at 14-1 with SkyBet
Five of the last ten favourites have won the Yorkshire Oaks
Nine of the last ten winners of the Yorkshire Oaks came from the first three in the betting
Nine of the last ten winners of the Yorkshire Oaks had at least all competed in Group One company – Emirates Queen and Wild Coco have not
The last eight winners of the Yorkshire Oaks finished in the first two on their most recent start
All of the last ten winners of the Yorkshire Oaks were aged three or four – Wild Coco is five (the last five-year-old to win was Super Tassa in 2001)
The biggest priced winner of the Yorkshire Oaks in the last ten years is 13-2
Seven of the last ten Lowther winners came from the first three in the betting
Six of the last nine winners of the Lowther had run at Royal Ascot
Seven of the last 10 winners of the Lowther had run at least three times prior
Seven of the last 10 Lowther winners had finished in the first two last time out
Five of the last six winners have come from the first four in the betting
Five of the last six winners have come from a double figure stall
Kevin Ryan and Philip Makin have won the last two runnings
The last ten winners have been aged either three or four
Eight of the last nine winners carried 8-11 or more.
Smarty Socks has raced at York 11 times for four wins, three seconds and a third – Smarty Socks finished 2nd to Navajo Chief in 2011 with Pintura 3rd
Navajo Chief has raced at York eight times for three wins and a third, including this race in 2011
Only two of the last nine winners have won on their most recent start
David O’Meara has five runners.
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